Finland stops giving Swine Flu vaccine due to increased cases of Narcolepsy

[Kuko 4000]

"Department of Health and Welfare recommends vaccination Pandemrix-suspension"

http://translate.google.fi/translat....fi/fi_FI/web/fi/tiedote?id=22930&sl=fi&tl=en

The Finnish health officials are now investigating the reason(s) behind the increase of Narcolepsy in children. 2-7 cases in under 16 year olds is the norm, the diagnosed cases of Narcolepsy are now at 15. Some neurologists speculate that if the increase is because of the Pandemrix vaccine, it has probably something to do with the adjuvant AS03. This has of course led to continuous trash media blow-ups and accusations of a conspiracy, etc.

A couple of interesting questions:

* 90 million shots (in over 20 countries) of Pandemrix worldwide (4 million of them to children), why has this increase in Narcolepsy happened only in Finland (15 diagnoses), and partly in Sweden (8 suspected cases)?

* There is a certain tissue type which is closely linked to Narcolepsy, afaik 90% of Narcolepsy cases have this tissue type. The average rate of this tissue type is about 17-18% in the population. All of the 15 diagnosed here in Finland have this tissue type.

* The adjuvant AS03 or one very similar to this has been used safely for around 10 years. Why would this cause problems now?

And then there's this:

It looks like some neurologists have withheld information regarding the link between the Pandemrix and Narcolepsy in order to publish their findings in a scientific journal.

http://translate.googleusercontent....&twu=1&usg=ALkJrhi-wf3w3Es9r3Wela5pQ9gthNx1LA

I'm ashamed (and worried) of the sensationalist media coverage so far (no matter what happens), but at the same time interested about the weird increase of Narcolepsy cases in children.

 

[T.A.M.]

Correlation versus causation once again...nothing more to see here as far as i can see.

TAM

 

[Deetee]

It looks like some neurologists have withheld information regarding the link between the Pandemrix and Narcolepsy in order to publish their findings in a scientific journal.

http://translate.googleusercontent....&twu=1&usg=ALkJrhi-wf3w3Es9r3Wela5pQ9gthNx1LA

Hmmm........

Neurologists to justify their choice by the fact that the scientific community seems to be more efficient than through the authorities.
Partinen believes that narkolepsiayhteys authorities might have wheels on the pushchair

 

[Cuddles]

So there's an outbreak of a disease known to be a contributing factor to narcolepsy (according to the article in the OP). A vaccination program is started. Narcolespy cases increase. Therefore it must have been the vaccine? Perhaps I'm missing something, but that doesn't seem to be the obvious conclusion to jump to.

In addition, it's worth noting that we're dealing with very small numbers here. If you have a normal distribution of cases per year, then sometimes you will get outliers, and when you're dealing with such small numbers, those outliers will represent large percentage increases (or decreases). That doesn't necessarily make them significant, it just means you have to be very careful with statistics when you're dealing with small numbers.

 

[Rage Virus]

Finnish people have narcolepsy? How can they even tell?

 

[TubbaBlubba]

Yeah, I read about it in a Swedish paper the other day. 6 million shots, and 8 suspected cases of narkolepsy. Now that's some statistical significance.

 

[Kuko 4000]

There's an interesting new twist. Looks like the neurologist who claimed the causal connection between Pandemrix and narcolepsy is now in trouble. He has apparently mangled the message of the article sent to NEJM by other neurologists. The article contains only questions about the rise of the narcolepsy cases, no conclusions about causal connections. The Ministry of Health and Social Affairs has now asked Markku Partinen, the neurologist with the causal link claim, to a hearing because of possible breaking of the rules regarding the vaccine side effect reporting, and the spreading of misinformation.

The NEJM article itself is in trouble as well. The article includes names of neurologists who were not even aware of such article in the first place. These neurologists have now contacted NEJM with a letter clarifying this. They also wanted to point out that they disagree with the conclusions of Markku Partinen and that this was not a scientific study but a case report.

http://translate.google.fi/translat...fi/uutisarkisto/article492344.ece&sl=fi&tl=en

http://translate.googleusercontent....&twu=1&usg=ALkJrhhG2kjMAgL7uZJuCIOSqN4ZNF0bBw

 

[laca]

Has Andrew Wakefield emigrated to Finland and changed his name?

 

[Kuko 4000]

Wakefield and Jefferson were the two names that came to my mind after reading this. Let's see what happens...

 

[T.A.M.]

Has Andrew Wakefield emigrated to Finland and changed his name?

Nice...i needed that laugh this morning.

TAM

 

[Fnord]

Correlation versus causation once again...nothing more to see here as far as i can see.

I had my last flu shot in the early 1990s, and had my worst case of the flu almost immediately thereafter. I also have not had the flu since then.

Yep. Nothing to see here. Move along

 

[Mirrorglass]

It looks like some neurologists have withheld information regarding the link between the Pandemrix and Narcolepsy in order to publish their findings in a scientific journal.

http://translate.googleusercontent....&twu=1&usg=ALkJrhi-wf3w3Es9r3Wela5pQ9gthNx1LA

Hmmm........

Neurologists to justify their choice by the fact that the scientific community seems to be more efficient than through the authorities.
Partinen believes that narkolepsiayhteys authorities might have wheels on the pushchair

Google translate isn't all that good with metaphors. In case anyone is interested, here's a somewhat more accurate translation:

Neurologists justify their choice by claiming it is more effective to influence throught the scientific community than through authorities. Partinen believes the narcolepsy connection could have jarred in the wheels of the authorities, but if the study was published in a scientific journal, the authorities would have to take it seriously.

Mind you, it still sounds like hogwash.

 

[Kuko 4000]

The neurologist Markku Partinen took his words back regarding a 99% link between Narcolepsy and the Pandemrix vaccine. Now he says that it is an unfortunate coincidence and that the increased cases have nothing to do with the Pandemrix vaccine. The problem is that the popular media has used him as one of the main sources for sensationalist headlines for the last week or so. One can only guess how much this has affected the popular opinion regarding the safety of vaccines. The signs are worrying

Here's a translation of the article:

http://translate.google.fi/translat...fi/uutisarkisto/article492901.ece&sl=fi&tl=en

Markku Partinen eat one's word

A neurologist interviewed amulehden Markku Partinen eat one's word.

In today's morning newspaper interview reasoned Partinen is another tune.

"I now have a perception that increased narkolepsiatapaukset have been unfortunate coincidence and that they do not have anything to do with sikaifluenssarokotteen. Here is the hasty and made a meal of smth," says Partinen.

 

[Ducky]

My Own Private Finland?

 

[T.A.M.]

I had my last flu shot in the early 1990s, and had my worst case of the flu almost immediately thereafter. I also have not had the flu since then.

Yep. Nothing to see here. Move along

You likely had a bad immune response to the flu vax, rather then the actual Influenza virus. I suppose you could have had bad luck and not had enough antibodies built up from the shot prior to catching the influenza, but that would be less likely.

ONCE AGAIN, YOU CANNOT GET THE FLU (influenza virus) FROM THE FLU SHOT!!!!

TAM

 

[Fnord]

You likely had a bad immune response to the flu vax, rather then the actual Influenza virus. I suppose you could have had bad luck and not had enough antibodies built up from the shot prior to catching the influenza, but that would be less likely.

ONCE AGAIN, YOU CANNOT GET THE FLU (influenza virus) FROM THE FLU SHOT!!!!

Yeah ... right ... there's another JREF thread for that kinda talk...

 

[T.A.M.]

ok now I am completely lost...someone want to translate for me?

TAM

 

[Eos of the Eons]

Yeah ... right ... there's another JREF thread for that kinda talk...

You can't get the flu from the flu shot. It also takes 10 days after the shot for you to not get the flu. If you got the flu right after, then it's because you caught it from someone else before the shot could work to keep you from getting it.

 

[Tatyana]

I had my last flu shot in the early 1990s, and had my worst case of the flu almost immediately thereafter. I also have not had the flu since then.

Yep. Nothing to see here. Move along

I get a flu jab every year, I have for the last ten years. In fact, I had two last year.

I haven't had the flu since I started getting the jabs.

Before that, I had flu twice.


My anecdotal evidence trumps yours, greater numbers.

Yep.



PS: The flu jab can't give you the flu, it is often just a string of peptides. I would also recommend you check out what a virus actually is.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Correlation versus causation once again...nothing more to see here as far as i can see.

TAM

Yet.... I will wait to read the scientific paper.


Fins are a more genetically homogenous group so there is a possibility of seeing a reaction amplified in this group.

OTOH, clusters are a known phenomena that can make it appear there is connection when it is still a coincidence. And, enhanced case finding also mucks up appearances.



I do think we should be just as cautious dismissing these claims are we are accepting them. Our experience has been this stuff never pans out. But that can lead us to assume the next one won't pan out either.