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Explain this statistics/probability thing for me

If I ever play the lottery, I will pick the numbers 4-8-15-16-23-42 to insure that if I win the jackpot, I will have to share with the maximum number of idiots who picked the same combination.
 
People are very bad at being intentionally random.

I remember hearing some anecdote about some professor doing a "test" to see if his class was psychic. He told then he'd picked out a sequence of something like 8 random 0's and 1's, and had the class try to guess what he had written down. He had them all raise their hands, he'd start calling out the numbers, and they'd lower their hands once they had gotten one wrong. By statistics, you'd expect half the hands to go down each time, but it didn't. After half the numbers had been read out, which was 1011, a much larger number than you might expect still had their hands up. Aha! the class was psychic.

Then the professor read the rest of the numbers, 0000, and the remaining hands went down quickly. Their psychic abilities failed.

What happened? Well, if you ask people to pick a random series of 4 1's and 0's, they don't produce a random list. Almost nobody picks 0000 or 1111. 1011 and 0100 are very common, since people start out alternating, but then decide they need to do some repeats because repeats sometimes happen. The net results of people's "random" picks are statistically very skewed, and all the professor did was take advantage of that fact.

As a side note, it is possible to train people and even animals to act more randomly.
A classroom demonstration of the principle appears in J. R. Corey (1988) Human "random" behavior. APA student handbook for the teaching of psychology Vol.3.
 
If I ever play the lottery, I will pick the numbers 4-8-15-16-23-42 to insure that if I win the jackpot, I will have to share with the maximum number of idiots who picked the same combination.
Dibs on being one of those idiots.. even though i don't gamble.
 
Personnally I like this puzzle:

3 inmates (statisticians) are in a cell. They know that 2 of them have been sentenced to death and that the other will go free, but they don't know who dies and who lives yet.

One of the statisticians goes up to the guy guarding their cell and tells him "I know at least one of my friends is going to die. Could you point him [or one of them] out?" The guard agrees and points at one of his friends. "Thanks!" says the statistician, "You just raised my chances to 50/50!"

And the question is are his odds really 50/50 now?
 
Personnally I like this puzzle:

3 inmates (statisticians) are in a cell. They know that 2 of them have been sentenced to death and that the other will go free, but they don't know who dies and who lives yet.

One of the statisticians goes up to the guy guarding their cell and tells him "I know at least one of my friends is going to die. Could you point him [or one of them] out?" The guard agrees and points at one of his friends. "Thanks!" says the statistician, "You just raised my chances to 50/50!"

And the question is are his odds really 50/50 now?

No. This is identical to the Monty Hall Problem.
 
Schneibster said:
Try it for yourself. Point out that the odds of throwing three heads in a row are 1/2*1/2*1/2=1/8, implying 7:1 against, and you've just thrown two heads, thus the odds of throwing a third head are only one in eight. State that you only want 2:1 odds; if it's tails, you pay them a dollar, if it's heads, they pay you two.
I wasn't suggesting that you were making up the probability, I was suggesting that you were making up fact that anyone would take the bet. What university was that again?

~~ Paul
 
Personnally I like this puzzle:

3 inmates (statisticians) are in a cell. They know that 2 of them have been sentenced to death and that the other will go free, but they don't know who dies and who lives yet.

One of the statisticians goes up to the guy guarding their cell and tells him "I know at least one of my friends is going to die. Could you point him [or one of them] out?" The guard agrees and points at one of his friends. "Thanks!" says the statistician, "You just raised my chances to 50/50!"

And the question is are his odds really 50/50 now?

No, his odds remain at a third.
 
Everything else you said was correct, but this is the sort of sentence that leads otherwise rational people into the Gambler's Fallacy. A temporary bias towards heads or tails WILL NOT tend to be compensated by another temporary bias towards the other.
It depends on how you look at things. Like many statistical questions, it matters when you begin counting. Past behavior does not constrain future behavior, so given that a bias has already occurred in past flips, future biases in the opposite direction are not made more likely.

Before any bias occurs, however, we can say that in a sufficiently long series of trials, strings of bias will be equally likely to occur either way.

I agree that my earlier statement is ambiguous and can be misinterpreted. I apologize for any confusion.
 
Ok, I did some calculations: the Finnish lottery has 39 numbers, jackpot requires seven correct picks. I will assume that the absolute probability of guessing the combination correctly at one try is 39 times 38 times [...] 33, which adds up to 77,519,922,480.

You forgot to take into account that the numbers may be in any order. Divide that by 7! and you get the correct figure of 1 in 15 380 937.
 
It's like printing "Rinse and repeat" on shampoo bottles. Sales doubled by three words.
But that's just irresponsible.

I once got stuck in an infinite loop in the shower because of those three words. I only escaped when the water board eventually came by.

My hair looked nice, though.
 
Yes, but much more obsfucated.

I don't think it's much more obsfucated. Give the prisoner the option to switch fates with the third prisoner and it would be identical to the so called Monty Hall Puzzle.
 
I don't think it's much more obsfucated. Give the prisoner the option to switch fates with the third prisoner and it would be identical to the so called Monty Hall Puzzle.
Which in turn means that it is in fact different to the Monty Hall problem, since the prisoner is not given the option to switch fate with the third prisoner.
 
If I ever play the lottery, I will pick the numbers 4-8-15-16-23-42 to insure that if I win the jackpot, I will have to share with the maximum number of idiots who picked the same combination.

Whatever you do, don't pick 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-... (however many numbers your local lottery requires.) Obviously you don't want to pick a common combination of numbers, because then you will have to share the top prize with many people if you win. That's why many people will try to come up with a combination that noone else would consider betting on. The result is that in the Norwegian national lottery game "Lotto", the combination 1-2-3-4-5-6-7 is the most popular, and would result in a ridiculously low payout. I suspect this is true for many other lotteries, too.

The moral: If you want to be smart, check the facts and make sure you're not just a smart-ass... ;)

Ririon
 
The result is that in the Norwegian national lottery game "Lotto", the combination 1-2-3-4-5-6-7 is the most popular, and would result in a ridiculously low payout. I suspect this is true for many other lotteries, too.

Are we dealing with an urban legend here, or an interesting phenomenon of common stupidity shared by Nordic Countries? :confused:
 
Are we dealing with an urban legend here, or an interesting phenomenon of common stupidity shared by Nordic Countries? :confused:
I've also heard this, and I suspect that it might be an urban legend. I've heard it claimed that this particular sequence is popular amongst scientists, since it would constitute a "proof" that this sequence is just as likely as any other.

EDIT: I've now sent an email to Norsk Tipping about this, and I'll let you know the answer if I get one. It would be nice to know if this actually is an urban legend or if it is true.
 
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Also, it's about fear of this probability: if you've played the same numbers for years, are you going to risk the possibility that the old numbers will come up the week after you switched? ;)

True. That happened to me once. I dreamed some specific numbers would come up in the lottery. When I woke up, I still remembered the numbers. I had to play those numbers (the only time I've played the lottery), otherwise I wouldn't have felt quite good if they had really come up... Of course, wouldn't have done this if I dreamt of numbers everytime, I only did it because it was a one-time event.
 

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