Exit Polls

[shuize]

America did vote for John Kerry - before we voted against him.

Thanks. I'm so taking that as my own.

 

[aerocontrols]

Some netizens are claiming that the exit polls line up with the final results within experimental error everywhere but Ohio and Florida, and they're blaming Diebold. However no site I've seen yet has the numbers set out to show this relationship exists, and I'm not going to cry foul until I see the numbers.

It's possible that upset partisans are just making stuff up. On the other hand, Diebold is certainly as dodgy as hell and any result generated by their machines has to be held as suspect.

How can the Ohio result be pinned on Diebold ?

Ohio Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell today halted deployment of Diebold Election Systems’ electronic voting devices in Ohio for the 2004 General Election.

That's not what happened?

MattJ

 

[BPSCG]

This from Washington Post metro columnist Marc Fisher's online chat today:

Arlington, Va.: Did anyone see exit pollsters? I didn't.

Marc Fisher: I actually ran into three of them in my wanderings in Maryland and the District. And watching them operate made me even more skeptical about exit polls than I had been before. The pollsters were kids who seemed rather timid and, at least as long as I was watching, gravitated largely to very young and very old voters. Also, of course, there's an inherent problem in that kind of polling because most people they approach turn them down and don't want to take a few extra minutes to talk, and the "No, thanks" crowd seemed to be disproportionately working people, parents with kids and other groups that you obviously need for a representative sample.

And:

Petworth, Washington, D.C.: I saw exit polls being taken for the first time ever at my polling place (precinct 47 in DC, Powell School at 14th and Upshur.)

I didn't talk to them, but my impression of them was the same as yours.

Marc Fisher: But you and I both know that the same exit polls will be commissioned next time, and we can all pretend once again to be surprised that they're wrong. It's part of the fun.

Anecdotal, but telling.

 

[Kevin_Lowe]

That's not what happened?

My understanding is that about 20% of Ohio's polling stations still used Diebold machines, the rest used punch cards or paper ballots.

I'm unclear on how the individual polling station results were conveyed and tabulated. I believe blackboxvoting.org is looking into that.

 

[corplinx]

The simple fact is that there is ample evidence that the Diebold voting machines were built to make fraud possible.

Show me one scrap. All the "evidence" I have seen (slashdot is big on diebold bashing stories) doesn't use evidence. It uses speculation.

For instance, here is the train of thought:
Diebold machines can be cracked (fact), and they know there are vulbnerabilities (fact), therefore diebold is intentionally leaving these vulnerabilities to facilitate fraud (speculation).

I'm starting to get the kook vibe off of you kevin. Perhaps you have found _ample_ evidence that these machine were "built to make fraud possible". All I will require is one scrap such as:
a leaked internal memo
a trustworthy whistleblower

The fact is that if evidence of any sort existed showing that diebold intentionally and knowingly designed these vulnerabilities with the intention of facilitating fraud, it would be all over CBS right this minute.

 

[glsunder]

doh - I should read the whole thread first.

No voting machine should be used if it's results can't be recounted with as much accuracy and certainness as a paper ballot.

 

[Kevin_Lowe]

Anecdotal, but telling.

I'm not certain anything was seriously amiss with the election results.

I am very certain that those quotes make my brain hurt with their stupidity. I worked briefly as a pollster, you see, and it's obvious those two guys don't know anything at all about polling.

The people taking the polls are always youngsters. Polling on the street is like flipping burgers in McDonalds, it is not a career people stick with. The polls are still usually accurate though.

Similarly the pollsters have quotas to meet, broken up by things like age and income. You don't just take a random sample off the street, you take a random sample that is designed to be representative of the population as a whole. This does mean you can spend a lot of time looking for that last 35-45 year old male with an income under $25k or whatever, but there is no way in a well-designed poll that they would have been polling a disproportionate number of young and old people as these guys were implying.

If you are looking for a compelling explanation, BPSCG, what you're looking for is an effect which is specific to 2004 and to Florida/Ohio. The polls worked all right elsewhere, and worked all right before. Lack of such an explanation isn't proof of anything, of course, but a good explanation would have that kind of specificity.

 

[Kevin_Lowe]

It looks like www.blackboxvoting.org have updated their site. They're claiming they have hard evidence of electoral fraud, although the scope and impact of the fraud is still unclear.

They're calling for volunteers to help gather more data and strongarm certain electoral officials who seem to be hiding evidence.

Pardon me, I think this deserves a new thread of its own so I'm off to start one. These people are non-partisan journos who have been tracking Diebold for some time, and I don't think they are crying wolf.