Examples of Skeptics Cold Reading?

Clancie said:
Well, since your post specifically was referring to me, actually, and indicated that -I- had been intellectually dishonest, it might have been nice if you were actually familiar with my post and the request that it had been in response to.

Oh, I-Ro-Ny.

T'ai Chi said:
Let's see, you were wrong about it being an experiment (remember, you said it was an experiment in other posts too), wrong about the number of transcripts I had (you somehow originally said 25), wrong about the % agreement (due to underestimation of it and mistaken inference), and wrong about other things too. So yes, I certainly agree that you were wrong.

Do you have some kind of mental block that prohibits you from conceding that your opponent has admitted a mistake? Do you need to keep people in a certain situation, no matter how much the situation has changed?

I didn't ask you if I made a mistake. I asked you if you agree that I admitted to it. You obviously don't want to answer this. For some reason.

T'ai Chi said:
And as stated, with this you contradict yourself. You believe you can critique statistical arguments, call me a "lousy statistician", and say some analyses are "flawed", while at the same time admitting that you know next to nothing about statistics. Can you explain just what out of the discipline of statistics you DO know? Can you show my analyses are flawed?

Don't blow hot air Clauz, just DO IT. Use symbols and numbers, not words. Use your amazingly advanced amateur knowledge that you claim to have.

Again, you simply cannot stick to the truth. I have never claimed my amateur knowledge was advanced.

T'ai Chi said:
You attempt to drag me into this from your first post in this thread. It is irrelevant how many I have considering the poster didn't ask me for them. Moreover, the vast, vast majority of transcripts I have are not from professional cold readers (such transcripts don't really seem to exist as far as I can tell). Moreover, unless you've my permission, you shouldn't go around offering the transcripts I've collected to other people. I found them on the net doing basic searches, others can too.

I simply don't understand why you won't share the data that was provided by other people. You don't own the transcripts, and I find your attitude rather distasteful: You want other people to do you favors, but you won't do favors for them. It is a very selfish, childish way of behaving.

Just share the transcripts. Your precious little "study" will not be harmed.

T'ai Chi said:
Was your attempt at looking into the future supposed to impress anyone? It didn't.

It wasn't. I was merely reflecting on your plans to build a shrine dedicated to me and my doings.

T'ai Chi said:
It will be a personal webpage, with articles here and there on things I find interesting, skeptical and otherwise. I'll certainly be linking to several skepticrepork articles as examples of how not to write skeptical articles (ie % agreement article). I have already copied many in case of their removal.

You needen't worry, you needen't imply that I would remove them. Every article stays. Each article is more important than your stalker-site.

Now, you are apparently still working on your study and you are informing other participants, but not me. Why not?
 
Interesting Ian said:
No it wouldn't. I don't want to feel superior, I want a sensible mature intelligent debate.

Well if you really do, let's continue.

I have provided lots of accurate information about Derren Brown's chess trick.
You reply:

Interesting Ian said:
And this whole subject has nothing to do with the topic of this thread anyway.

Well that's a strange thing to say, seeing as you introduced it:

HenDralux[/i] Humans are so easy to fool. One of the main reasons being said:
I don't agree. For example I was just watching Derren Brown last night. Even though he's not very good at chess, he simultaneously played 5 good chess players at once, a couple of grandmasters amongst them, and he managed to beat most of them. They all seemed to be extremely impressed. But I twigged on how he did it.

My sheer raw intelligence you see

I pointed out that memory is not usually reliable enough to give a precise account of what happened, which matters a lot when a sitter claims a psychic got 'hits'.
When I point out that there were 9 players, not 5 as you stated, you reply:

Interesting Ian said:
Number of games was 5 not players. But this is unimportant in the context of the point I made.

So you won't admit you were wrong on a basic piece of information, then say it's not important.
It does matter. How can we if cold reading was used, unless we have accuracy in reporting.
Saying there were a couple of grandmasters, when there were 4 is not good enough in this context (the psychic had 'a couple' of hits!).
Your claim that he beat most of them is also inaccurate. He beat 4 out of 9.
Also none of them were 'extremely impressed'. One international turned down his invitation, saying he knew how the trick would be done. All the players present knew 'mirror chess' would be used as soon as they saw the studio set.

Later you said the program was not on terrestrial TV. When I state it was, you replied:

Interesting Ian said:
The company that supplies my cable TV has altered loads of things over the past few days. I can program the cable box to give a loud buzz when a fav TV programme comes on, but am now less likely to notice what channel a programme was on.

Again, you won't admit to an error of reporting. This level of accuracy matters when seeing how a psychic session actually went.

You then back as a 'plausible hypothesis' TheBoyPaj saying that Derren could engineer the timing of when the games end.
Let's analyse this closely.
If one player is winning the game and the predicted number of pieces is on the board, you say that Derren can resign early. But now he's on his own against an international player.
Given that Grandmaster Emms resigned when a bishop down, you seriously think a beginner can beat a grandmaster just a bishop ahead?
And I look forward to your explanation of how Derren can get a draw agreed once the number of pieces is correct on both sides. As you should know, a draw in chess is offered immediately after one player makes a move. the other player can either accept, or play on.
So here is Derren playing player A v player B. He sees player A's move, trundles round the circle and makes it against player B. According to you, he now offers a draw. Player B accepts - but no more moves are made in this game. When Derren returns to player A, how does he offer a draw?!
Do let us know how you think the draw in the program actually happened.
(Then I'll tell you what did happen. You see how valuable my sources are!)
 
The American comedian, Steven Wright, once had a joke that went:

“I like to reminisce with people I don’t know.”

Which, when you think about it, is what cold reading is all about. The process is geared towards giving the impression that one person knows more about another than they actually do and that this information is coming from sources unseen.

As with any trick, the idea is to make it look like one thing is happening, while actually something quite different is going on. If the medium repeats the same thing, is it because the spirit is insistent, or because the medium is trying to stretch the guess into something else?

A guess like “Was father called Anthony?” may look specific, and if it is correct it has a big Wow factor. But if it is wrong, which it usually will be, the cold reader always has the option to open out the guess to include anybody, or to include all A-n names, or both. Pretty much every guess has a safety net in this way: a specific guess about anything can be opened up using imagery.

Another example, “Are you a Gemini?” (didn’t NoZed Avenger use this guess too? I can’t recall), could mean what it says. Or it could, on later reasking of the question, become “Who’s a Gemini?” “Who’s a twin?” or “What’s the anniversary in (whenever Gemini falls)?” The odds shorten dramatically with each option.

A brief note about Clancie’s reading.

First, Clancie, I’d like to know if this is the same reading you mentioned before on tvtalkshows. You mentioned a successful reading that started with the medium talking about a father figure, a husband or brother figure and a connection to the name John. Is this the same one?

Second, I personally think the SLO hit is better than the snake one, since (if my impressons are correct) it required no stretching at all to fit.

This part, however, bothers me:

Part I. She first established the deceased, by name (not initial, or a string of names). She mentioned this quite important trip he and I took, and mentioned a specific destination. Third, she asked, "Did a snake come out on the trip?" and, in fact, the "Snake" was an important name

It gives a strong impression (certainly this was what I perceived) that the guesses were consecutive. But later Clancie talks about a guesses about Gemini and teaching. If these came amongst the string of guesses re. The trip to SLO then the narrative flow is broken somewhat. The idea of information about a specific topic coming from the dead is damaged if the topics are disparate and disjointed. For example, I could describe one of my readings thus:

“First I identified the deceased by describing his illness and by naming his brother by name, then I described where he lived (which had significance for the sitter, for that’s where they went on holiday) and then I named the deceased’s only living sibling.”

Now, this is accurate, but it is incomplete. And the impression it gives is quite different to what actually happened. Which is why, although I respect Clancie and don’t think she’s being deliberately dishonest, I can’t take this too seriously.

Lastly, I can’t imagine the Blue Book having much of a role in today’s psychic circles. If so, then Rupert Brown’s seems to contain only suggestions about guessing page numbers on the books besides peoples’ beds, John Edward’s focuses entirely on people who’ve lost their leg, and Suzanne Northrup’s must be just a collection of random nouns that she can yell at entire audiences!
 
glee said:
Well if you really do, let's continue.

I have provided lots of accurate information about Derren Brown's chess trick.
You reply:



Well that's a strange thing to say, seeing as you introduced it:





I pointed out that memory is not usually reliable enough to give a precise account of what happened, which matters a lot when a sitter claims a psychic got 'hits'.
When I point out that there were 9 players, not 5 as you stated, you reply:



So you won't admit you were wrong on a basic piece of information, then say it's not important.
It does matter. How can we if cold reading was used, unless we have accuracy in reporting.
Saying there were a couple of grandmasters, when there were 4 is not good enough in this context (the psychic had 'a couple' of hits!).
Your claim that he beat most of them is also inaccurate. He beat 4 out of 9.
Also none of them were 'extremely impressed'. One international turned down his invitation, saying he knew how the trick would be done. All the players present knew 'mirror chess' would be used as soon as they saw the studio set.

Later you said the program was not on terrestrial TV. When I state it was, you replied:



Again, you won't admit to an error of reporting. This level of accuracy matters when seeing how a psychic session actually went.

You then back as a 'plausible hypothesis' TheBoyPaj saying that Derren could engineer the timing of when the games end.
Let's analyse this closely.
If one player is winning the game and the predicted number of pieces is on the board, you say that Derren can resign early. But now he's on his own against an international player.
Given that Grandmaster Emms resigned when a bishop down, you seriously think a beginner can beat a grandmaster just a bishop ahead?

{sighs}

Derren doesn't have to beat a Grandmaster with just a bishop ahead! You've just said the Grandmaster resigned! In the mirror game Derren is losing. So he can resign at that point like Grandmaster Emms does in the original game. Or he can play for a few moves and thus have some influence over the number of pieces left on the board. Of course he will definitely lose, but that doesn't matter since he would lose that game anyway.

And I look forward to your explanation of how Derren can get a draw agreed once the number of pieces is correct on both sides. As you should know, a draw in chess is offered immediately after one player makes a move. the other player can either accept, or play on.

So here is Derren playing player A v player B. He sees player A's move, trundles round the circle and makes it against player B. According to you, he now offers a draw. Player B accepts - but no more moves are made in this game. When Derren returns to player A, how does he offer a draw?!
Do let us know how you think the draw in the program actually happened.
(Then I'll tell you what did happen. You see how valuable my sources are!) [/B]

The draw option is only of very limited use. If the situation has any complexity whatsoever then obviously this option would not be available to him. As I keep reiterating, Derren can have a degree of *influence* over the number of pieces remaining in some of the games. And certainly TheBoyPaj hypothesis by itself was never a runner, but had to be supplemented by the additional supposition that the players get asked in a particular given order how many pieces are left on their boards, at the end of the game. Whether this actually took place or not, I have no idea since I wasn't watching the programme at that stage.




Glee, you are a concrete block. You are too thick to understand my arguments. We have been through this before. Your basic philosophical reasoning ability is zero.

Your 2 contentions, namely:

  • TheBoyPaj and I are advocating that Derren is using paranormal powers to achieve what he did.
  • That he actually employed the speculative hypothesis we suggested.
    [/list=a]

    Are both utterly ludicrous. As for the first, you don't seem to be mentioning it now, so maybe you've realised you were in error. Will you admit it though? Will you hell!

    A for the 2nd, you first of all need to try and grasp this fact. I was not paying attention to the TV programme at this point!. Therefore peoples allegation that I am saying that particular events took place is mind numbingly preposterous. How the flipping heck would I know what had taken place if I wasn't even watching the damn programme at that point??

    If you allege that these chess players were mind numbingly incompetent enough to allow Derren to switch envelopes, then I believe you. If you allege the hypothesis advanced by TheBoyPaj and myself is incommensurate with certain obtaining facts about the world, then I believe you. No-one has ever denied this. (although, having said that, some doubt is created by your evident confusion as I point out further up!)

    But try to get it through your skull. None of this has any relevance about the hypothesis advanced It really is utterly irrelevant whether the hypothesis is false or not. Given the background knowledge I and TheBoyPaj had, the hypothesis advanced was a perfectly valid one. Talking about Derren's ability as a chess player, how good all these chess players are etc etc , is an absolute irrelevancy.

    There, I've put it in bold red. Is it getting through to you yet??
 
Posted by ersby

It gives a strong impression (certainly this was what I perceived) that the guesses were consecutive.
Yes, that's correct.
But later Clancie talks about a guesses about Gemini and teaching. If these came amongst the string of guesses re. The trip to SLO then the narrative flow is broken somewhat.
No, she had the whole SLO thing together. "Gemini" and "Teacher" were not interspersed with that.
Another example, “Are you a Gemini?” Or it could, on later reasking of the question, become “Who’s a Gemini?” “Who’s a twin?” or “What’s the anniversary in (whenever Gemini falls)?” The odds shorten dramatically with each option.
Well, I'm pretty sensitive to the phrasing of these things, too. She did do some like that (i.e. "Someone's birthday or anniversary is in the month of August...I think it's really an anniversary..." which was ambiguous the way you're suggesting). For "Gemini" she said it straight out as being applied to me, just as I said. And, yes, she could have broadened it later, if needed--but it wasn't needed (I know, I know, "Remembering the hits"...:) ). (And, just for interest, Brian also got the teacher-thing, and the subject).
First, Clancie, I’d like to know if this is the same reading you mentioned before on tvtalkshows. You mentioned a successful reading that started with the medium talking about a father figure, a husband or brother figure and a connection to the name John. Is this the same one?
I'm not sure which one you're talking about. I'm not remembering anyone starting with "a husband or brother figure" (this is the good part of keeping tapes--if I knew who the medium was I could check. The name "John" has come up several times--of course, as we know, a common name). This reading began with the "gymnastics" thing--I don't remember if I wrote about it at TVT or not.
Now, this is accurate, but it is incomplete. And the impression it gives is quite different to what actually happened. Which is why, although I respect Clancie and don’t think she’s being deliberately dishonest, I can’t take this too seriously.
No problem, ersby. If you remember, I just posted this in response to HenDralux's question of what keeps me, personally, thinking "There might be something to it." Not intended to convince anyone else of anything. :)

Oh, and in keeping with the idea, "There might be something to it," no, it wasn't all hits. And, yes, the "misses" are part of what keeps you wondering, too....Imo, I've had several really good readings, but none were so good that they removed all doubt (and, personally, I don't think that's ever going to happen). Nevertheless, I'm sincere in saying that the several good ones I've had -do- keep me feeling, "There might be something to it."
 
Interesting Ian said:
If you allege that these chess players were mind numbingly incompetent enough to allow Derren to switch envelopes, then I believe you.
SIght! And of course Derren would never have been able to do something like that if you hed been wathing him? It really is no wonder that you believe all the nonsense you do.
 
Clancie said:
No, she had the whole SLO thing together. "Gemini" and "Teacher" were not interspersed with that.

This is what I mean. Drip, drip, drip....
 
Kerberos said:

SIght! And of course Derren would never have been able to do something like that if you hed been wathing him? It really is no wonder that you believe all the nonsense you do.

Simple precautions.

  1. You do not let go of the envelope.
  2. Failing this you watch the envelope like a hawk and not let it out of your sight.
    [/list=1]

    If you fail both of these then clearly he has the opportunity to switch envelopes.

    Now! Be so good as to name a single piece of "nonsense" that I believe in. Also be so good as to show that in fact it is indeed "nonsense".

    If you fail then I know where you're talking from.

    If you provide an answer then I'll respond, then I'll be leaving this board. If you don't I'm leaving this board now.

    I've had it up to here with it.
 
Interesting Ian said:
If you provide an answer then I'll respond, then I'll be leaving this board. If you don't I'm leaving this board now.

I've had it up to here with it.

Sweet juciy Jesus, YES! Just do it. Go.
 
Interesting Ian said:
No it wouldn't. I don't want to feel superior, I want a sensible mature intelligent debate.
Ah yes, sensible and mature, sort of like this...

Interesting Ian said:
What the hell are you talking about??? What is contained in that thick skull of yours?? If you fail to understand that Glee just blundered in without understanding anything of relevance that had been said then I can only conclude that knucklehead of yours must be full of sawdust.
 
Gotta love Ian. I put him right up there with diaper rash, jock itch, and athlete's foot.
(I saw he was back from suspension, so I took him off ignore to see if he'd learned anything. I have my answer.)

What did the whole chess thing have to do with cold reading, anyway? Or was Ian simply hijacking another thread? Can we get back on topic of the cold reading?

Another question - I've read in various threads that several posters here have had readings (cold or otherwise). I've not. I suppose those who have spent money to get the readings. Would you do it again? Part of the reason I haven't is I don't want to spend my hard earned money on rubbish. Thoughts? If you thought they were cold readings, why? Why not? (Not really necessary to answer, unless you want to. Just trying to get back OT)
 
Interesting Ian said:


Simple precautions.

  1. You do not let go of the envelope.
  2. Failing this you watch the envelope like a hawk and not let it out of your sight.
    [/list=1]

    If you fail both of these then clearly he has the opportunity to switch envelopes.

  1. Indeed but it is in no way mind numbingly incompetent for chess players to be tricked by a magician to look away for a moment ot something like that.

    Interesting Ian said:
    Now! Be so good as to name a single piece of "nonsense" that I believe in. Also be so good as to show that in fact it is indeed "nonsense".
    The belief that anecdotes are conclusive evidence that out of body experiences are "real", spring to mind. It's nonsense because you totally forget that the human memory is imperfect, stories grow with the telling and that all the cases where a person wakes up, and tells a lot of nonsense about what happened while she was unconscious/in coma aren't retold.


    Interesting Ian said:
    If you provide an answer then I'll respond, then I'll be leaving this board. If you don't I'm leaving this board now.
    I've had it up to here with it.
    Gee, was I rude to poor little you who is always so polite to others? Ohh, well. :w2:
 
Kerberos said:
II
Simple precautions.

You do not let go of the envelope.

Failing this you watch the envelope like a hawk and not let it out of your sight.



If you fail both of these then clearly he has the opportunity to switch envelopes.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Indeed but it is in no way mind numbingly incompetent for chess players to be tricked by a magician to look away for a moment ot something like that.

Well, if all these chess players simultaneously look away for a moment, there's your answer. But these are extremely good chess players, some of them being grandmasters. They should realise that Derren might very well attempt to switch envelopes. Derren absolutely should not be allowed this opportunity. But if they do allow him this opportunity then they shouldn't be surprised about the results in the envelope matching up.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally posted by Interesting Ian
Now! Be so good as to name a single piece of "nonsense" that I believe in. Also be so good as to show that in fact it is indeed "nonsense".
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


The belief that anecdotes are conclusive evidence

"Conclusive evidence" :confused: Do you mean proof? Even then I do not understand what the word proof means outside of formal logic.

that out of body experiences are "real", spring to mind.

Well of course they occur. I do not know what you mean by ""real"" though. People most certainly have these experiences, but what the nature of these experiences might be is a hugely complex subject. People literally leaving their bodies perhaps?? But what exactly does that mean?? My own belief is that we are never actually literally in our bodies in the first place, so how can we leave them??


It's nonsense because you totally forget that the human memory is imperfect, stories grow with the telling and that all the cases where a person wakes up, and tells a lot of nonsense about what happened while she was unconscious/in coma aren't retold.

Well it's utterly absurd to deny they actually occur! :eek: This is the problem you see. One cannot have a sensible discussion with skeptics regarding any controversial phenomena. One cannot discuss what the explanation of some phenomenon might be because they often deny it occurs in the first place! :eek: Utterly preposterous! It happens all the time though apparently.

Just to mention a few examples, skeptics have emphatically denied that lucid dreams occur (dreams where you realise in the dream you are dreaming), that NDEs occur (until the early 1980's) that stones fall from the sky ("it is impossible for stones to fall from the sky because there are no stones in the sky) that heavier than air flight is possible (despite many thousands of eyewitnesses who thought they were hallucinating etc). I could go on and on and on. And yet skeptics were going on about how ludicrous !XXrationalXX! was for claiming that no-one ever dreams. What he was claiming was scarcely any more ludicrous than what you lot claim!



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally posted by Interesting Ian
If you provide an answer then I'll respond, then I'll be leaving this board. If you don't I'm leaving this board now.

I've had it up to here with it.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Gee, was I rude to poor little you who is always so polite to others?

Nothing to do with rudeness. It's many things, but primarily it is completely pointless trying to discuss anything with skeptics for precisely the reasons mentioned just in this post. How can one discuss with skeptics what OBE's might be if they simply scream in your ear that no-one has ever had such an experience??

What can one say? How does one respond to such an outrageous suggestion?? If you point to the huge colossal amount of evidence of personal stories of people who have undergone these experiences, they scream 'anecdotes which constitute no evidence or reasons whatsoever that they have ever happened!'

At this point you know when to call it a day. There is truly nothing I can do.

Well, it's certainly been a jaw dropper communicating on these forums. I now realise that for many people absolutely nothing will alter their beliefs or non-beliefs. People are too firmly entrenched in their own belief systems and scream and shout hysterically when you plead for them to open their eyes.

But still, I plead for you and others to open their eyes anyway.

Farewell.
 
glee said:
Good grief! How gullible are you, TheBoyPaj?

I have been a bit busy today, so I haven't been able to witness the glee (geddit?) with which you have leapt all over my post about Derren Browns chess playing antics.

Shame you didn't see the bit where I said:

I don't know if it was a trick. He is a magician, after all.

You might be good at board games, but observant you ain't.
 
CFLarsen said:
Yep, just got finished reading it. Hehehehe.....

I've railed about being civil on these boards, so I will be. Publicly, at least and not say what I'm thinking. It wouldn't be constructive. So I'll just let it rest and wait to see if he shows up again.
 

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