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EU warns Putin about German Elections....

Nations could get serious about using offensive cyber capabilities to hit the hackers, their support networks, and the people shielding them.

Then it would be on Russia to decide how it wants to respond.
 
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theprestige said:
That would just motivate Russia to tweak the elections to ensure a slate that wouldn't cancel the pipeline.
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That's assuming Russia can actually succeed at that.

Which, if they can, then Germany is already their puppet.
 
The Great Zaganza said:
I would argue that the pipeline makes Russia much more dependent on Germany than the other way around, trapping Moscow in the resource curse.
It's not like Germany is buying twice as much gas just because it has access to two pipelines.
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First off, removing leverage that Ukraine has against Russia is more important to Russia than any additional leverage Germany has.

But I disagree that it makes Russia more dependent on Germany than Germany on Russia. And the reason I think you're wrong about that is time scales. Yes, Russia takes a huge fiscal hit if they cut off the oil. But you can ride a fiscal hit longer than you can ride a power hit. Power outages grind an economy to a halt even faster than rising debt.
 
Lukraak_Sisser said:
True, and most countries *are* working towards that by converting to alternative energy sources, but that is far from complete.

My guess is Putin will die of old age before the EU is energy self-sufficient.
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Germany took a massive step backwards by shutting down nuclear power plants. Starting them back up, or building new ones, would also be a way to stick it to Putin. It's too long-term an action to really tie specifically to activities during this election, but they should still do it.
 
Ziggurat said:
First off, removing leverage that Ukraine has against Russia is more important to Russia than any additional leverage Germany has.

But I disagree that it makes Russia more dependent on Germany than Germany on Russia. And the reason I think you're wrong about that is time scales. Yes, Russia takes a huge fiscal hit if they cut off the oil. But you can ride a fiscal hit longer than you can ride a power hit. Power outages grind an economy to a halt even faster than rising debt.
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Germany, following the EU plan, will become more and more independent of Russian gas. And because the EU power infrastructure is connected, Russia has very little leverage, because Germany can always get power elsewhere.

With regards to Ukraine: it's not like the EU has moved mountains in the past when Russia blackmailed the country by withholding gas. And it is not likely that Germany is going to get much more pro-Russia anytime soon: the Left Party, successor of the DDR Communist Party, didn't even make it into Parliament.
 
Germany has 2-3x the economy of Russia.
It will tolerate Russia as long as it delivers cheap gas.
Russia needs Euros more than Germany needs gas.
 
The Great Zaganza said:
Germany has 2-3x the economy of Russia.
It will tolerate Russia as long as it delivers cheap gas.
Russia needs Euros more than Germany needs gas.
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Germany tolerating Russian election interference in exchange for cheap gas is exactly what Putin wants. Hell, the fact that they're already doing this means Putin's election interference is working.
 
The Great Zaganza said:
Russia needs Euros more than Germany needs gas.
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I'm not sure that's true. Again, the time scales for disruption aren't equivalent. Furthermore, the two countries aren't equal in terms of what they're willing to suffer to get what they want. Germany is less willing to play hardball than Russia is, because they're a democracy and Germany is a dictatorship.

Germany may be stronger than Russia if the conflict gets big enough, but as long as it doesn't escalate too much, it looks to me like Russia actually has the upper hand.
 
theprestige said:
Germany tolerating Russian election interference in exchange for cheap gas is exactly what Putin wants. Hell, the fact that they're already doing this means Putin's election interference is working.
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how is the interference working?

As mentioned, the Linke didn't even make it, and no one is going to do a Coalition with the AfD, even though it's FSB funded.

Germany is much more upset about industrial espionage than election meddling.
 
The Great Zaganza said:
how is the interference working?
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You tell me. The allegation is that there's interference, and that it's expected to work (otherwise it wouldn't count as interference, and wouldn't be a problem worth calling out). I'm stipulating that the allegation is true, and reaching conclusions from that.

Obviously if the allegation isn't true, then my conclusions are all bogus. But then, if the allegations aren't true, why make a big deal about it? Why make this public warning about something that doesn't matter?

As mentioned, the Linke didn't even make it, and no one is going to do a Coalition with the AfD, even though it's FSB funded.
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I don't understand these references. My position is that Putin wouldn't necessarily want an obvious cartoon villain outcome. As you said, Germany will continue to tolerate Russian shenanigans in exchange for cheap gas. My position is that this political outcome in itself is already a benefit to Putin. influencing German elections to the point where such tolerant and short-sighted politicians are elected is already a win for him. He doesn't need to install a Linke or AfD slate, if the slate that got elected is already giving him tacit support. Not being the Party of Obvious Russian Stooges is a feature of this outcome, not a bug.

Germany is much more upset about industrial espionage than election meddling.
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If the elections have been meddled with, then why would you expect Germany to take action against industrial espionage?
 
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