Electric Vehicles

[Ziggurat]

It would be interesting to know what proportion of people routinely engage in long distance driving.

First, I count long distance as anything where you need to fill up during the trip. But what counts as routine? Daily? Weekly? Every month? Once a year?

Once a year is a requirement for a LOT of people in the US, probably the majority. And if you have to do it at all, even at just once a year means you're going to want a car that can do long distance easily, and that will largely preclude electrics even with fast charging. If you're a 2 car family and you only need one car to be able to do long distance, then an all-electric plus a gas car (pluggin hybrids include) can work. If you're single or a one-car family, that's not a solution. And there are a lot of 2 car families, so the total market for electric cars could still be quite big. But supercharging stations aren't enough to make long distance electric common, even if short distance/commute electric is.

 

[Ziggurat]

This is ground breaking information that few have ever considered. Thank you for being such a bold leader in this field.

I'm well aware that this isn't ground breaking information. But it's also not a problem anyone has any real idea of how to solve. In some ways, it doesn't NEED to be solved (we're also a long ways off from having the total grid capacity to go all-electric, for example), but it exists all the same.

 

[Darat]

It would be interesting to know what proportion of people routinely engage in long distance driving.

I know that even for the UK, the driving patterns of Mrs Don and I, and our friends, are atypical. Our total distance travelled a year is low and our journeys are short.

There have been times in my life when I've been driving a fair amount by UK standards, say 50,000 miles a year, but this tended to be 200 miles a day, 5 days a week so as long as charging was available at work and/or at home I'd be fine. Then again, from what I've gleaned here, most people in the US drive several times that distance every year - which is what makes use of electric vehicles impossible.

But it isn't just about long end to end journeys. The issue for me is the distance to my elderly and ill mother's. If I had an electric car with say a 250-300 range, it can do the full journey if fully topped up. Say I was traveling home one evening, been driving all day, had 50 or so miles left and got a call, I wouldn't be able to get to her without recharging. Obviously with a petrol car even if it was on flashing empty I can have it filled up and it is instantly ready to make the journey.

 

[Segnosaur]

But it isn't just about long end to end journeys. The issue for me is the distance to my elderly and ill mother's. If I had an electric car with say a 250-300 range, it can do the full journey if fully topped up. Say I was traveling home one evening, been driving all day, had 50 or so miles left and got a call, I wouldn't be able to get to her without recharging.

True. But, if you are about to make a 3-4 hour journey, stopping at a super charger for a top-up before your trip might add a half hour, but that is only adds 10-20% to your travel time.


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[The Don]

First, I count long distance as anything where you need to fill up during the trip. But what counts as routine? Daily? Weekly? Every month? Once a year?

IMO it's the point in time where it becomes a major criterion.

Looking back over the last 35 years and approximately 500,000 miles, I'm quite frankly shocked at how little of that time I've needed a car with greater than a 250 mile range. About 18 months ago I would have been certain that I would have needed one most of the time but I've come to realise that the amount of truly long distance driving I've done is comparatively little and when I've racked up my most intensive miles it's been when I've been driving 100, 150, 200 miles a day every day.

Once a year is a requirement for a LOT of people in the US, probably the majority. And if you have to do it at all, even at just once a year means you're going to want a car that can do long distance easily, and that will largely preclude electrics even with fast charging.

Really ? Why ?

I don't have an electric car myself, but the bassist in our group does. He recently drove from South Wales up to the Isle of Lewis to go on holiday - approximately a 1400 mile round trip. He didn't drive the whole distance up in one go. Instead he stopped every 200-250 miles to take a break, walk the dog and recharge the car. By his account, he would typically have done this anyway.

If you're a 2 car family and you only need one car to be able to do long distance, then an all-electric plus a gas car (pluggin hybrids include) can work. If you're single or a one-car family, that's not a solution. And there are a lot of 2 car families, so the total market for electric cars could still be quite big. But supercharging stations aren't enough to make long distance electric common, even if short distance/commute electric is.

If your once a year trip requires a petrol-powered vehicle and you only have a single vehicle then why not rent for that period ?

 

[Ziggurat]

Really ? Why ?

We are a big country. There are a lot of trips people want to take around 300 miles, be it vacation or visiting relatives. Flying for those sorts of distances is not worth it.

I don't have an electric car myself, but the bassist in our group does. He recently drove from South Wales up to the Isle of Lewis to go on holiday - approximately a 1400 mile round trip. He didn't drive the whole distance up in one go. Instead he stopped every 200-250 miles to take a break, walk the dog and recharge the car. By his account, he would typically have done this anyway.

Oh, I'm not saying long distances in electric cars cannot be done. Clearly it can, because people do it already.

But we will only have the charger capacity to let small numbers of people do that easily. We aren't going to add enough chargers to make it the norm.

 

[bruto]

IMO it's the point in time where it becomes a major criterion.

Looking back over the last 35 years and approximately 500,000 miles, I'm quite frankly shocked at how little of that time I've needed a car with greater than a 250 mile range. About 18 months ago I would have been certain that I would have needed one most of the time but I've come to realise that the amount of truly long distance driving I've done is comparatively little and when I've racked up my most intensive miles it's been when I've been driving 100, 150, 200 miles a day every day.



Really ? Why ?

I don't have an electric car myself, but the bassist in our group does. He recently drove from South Wales up to the Isle of Lewis to go on holiday - approximately a 1400 mile round trip. He didn't drive the whole distance up in one go. Instead he stopped every 200-250 miles to take a break, walk the dog and recharge the car. By his account, he would typically have done this anyway.



If your once a year trip requires a petrol-powered vehicle and you only have a single vehicle then why not rent for that period ?

REntal is a fine idea from the environmental perspective, but not necessarily from the financial. Maybe in the future, when such things become more common,, electric cars at less of a premium, and fuel more expensive. But right now, the relative cost of running an electric car (a considerable saving for sure), is likely to be offset by the high initial price, the high cost of rental, and the convenience factor.

Of course there are ways around this for many. A multi car household can simply split the types of cars. That's what I well might do in the near future. A household without multi cars now could do so if they have space to put them. If you have frequent long distance needs, although insurance and the like would add some cost, you could keep a cheap, even relatively crappy, little gas car. But for many, at least for now, if you have a cheap crappy little gas car, it's also just possible to skip the electric one. When a new Tesla costs between five and ten times what I paid for my tinny and cheap but ridiculously reliable Hyundai, which also gets an average of about 40 miles to the gallon, I'm trading off about thirty years' worth of gas for that nice ride. Of course there's a bit more maintenance, maybe. But the tires for that Tesla probably cost three times what mine do, and don't last as long.

Of course one need not buy a Tesla. One could buy a little electric Hyundai or a Leaf, and that works out much better. But I'd still find it necessary at times to have more distance and more capacity.

I think the day of electric cars is coming and coming fast, but it's not quite here yet.

 

[Ziggurat]

I think the day of electric cars is coming and coming fast, but it's not quite here yet.

I think it's going to remain a niche (but one that becomes significant) for quite some time. I think the bigger expansion opportunity is plugin hybrids. You retain the long distance capacity of gas cars, but for short trips you get the advantage of electrics.

 

[RecoveringYuppy]

I think the bigger expansion opportunity is plugin hybrids.

Especially if biofuels keep progressing.

 

[crescent]

I think it's going to remain a niche (but one that becomes significant) for quite some time. I think the bigger expansion opportunity is plugin hybrids. You retain the long distance capacity of gas cars, but for short trips you get the advantage of electrics.

Especially if biofuels keep progressing.

Chevy has discontinued its plug-in hybrids, so has Honda. It seems a pity, but the big companies seem to view Plug-in Hybrids as a dead-end intermediate technology and they would rather push resources into ramping up all-electric vehicles.

 

[shuttlt]

I think it's going to remain a niche (but one that becomes significant) for quite some time. I think the bigger expansion opportunity is plugin hybrids. You retain the long distance capacity of gas cars, but for short trips you get the advantage of electrics.

Electric is getting the funding it is getting because:

1. It's clearly necessary if all of the green plans of the UN etc... are going to happen, and hence either now or in the future there are going to be oceans of money thrown at it by government.
2. It is a route to establishing a monopoly, or duopoly, on transport, particularly when combined with self drive and transport as a service. Who ever does it is going to be in the position of Boeing and Airbus and will consolidate the whole automotive industry down.

I think looking at this as an ordinary "rational" business proposition, or as a technical question, is the wrong way to go. The questions are, how much do governments want their green agenda to happen, how much money are they willing to throw at trying to make it happen, and whose pockets is that money going to go into. From that perspective, pure electric is much better than hybrid.

 

[Dr. Keith]

We are a big country. There are a lot of trips people want to take around 300 miles, be it vacation or visiting relatives. Flying for those sorts of distances is not worth it.



Oh, I'm not saying long distances in electric cars cannot be done. Clearly it can, because people do it already.

But we will only have the charger capacity to let small numbers of people do that easily. We aren't going to add enough chargers to make it the norm.

We haven’t, but I don’t think you can be certain that we won’t.

 

[Ziggurat]

We haven’t, but I don’t think you can be certain that we won’t.

I think I can be. We aren't going to install 10 times the number of charging stations as we have gas pumps at every gas station along highways, that's just not happening for a very long time, multiple decades at a minimum if ever.

And for what, anyways? Electric cars offer marginal advantages over plugin hybrids.

 

[Dr. Keith]

I think I can be. We aren't going to install 10 times the number of charging stations as we have gas pumps at every gas station along highways, that's just not happening for a very long time, multiple decades at a minimum if ever.

And for what, anyways? Electric cars offer marginal advantages over plugin hybrids.

Why would you need ten times more?

Most people would fill up at home or work and charging times are dropping all the time. We will get to 100 miles of range in 5 minutes within a few years.

 

[jadebox]

Why would you need ten times more?

Most people would fill up at home or work and charging times are dropping all the time. We will get to 100 miles of range in 5 minutes within a few years.

And as autonomous self-driving EVs become more common, less people will drive personal vehicles. Services like Uber will be more affordable and convenient. The autonomous cars would be able to charge efficiently in more out of way places and possibly even while driving along roads with built-in chargers.

 

[Dr. Keith]

And as autonomous self-driving EVs become more common, less people will drive personal vehicles. Services like Uber will be more affordable and convenient. The autonomous cars would be able to charge efficiently in more out of way places and possibly even while driving along roads with built-in chargers.

Even before you get to that point, it looks like there are already cars that will go longer than I will ever want to go without a break.

https://www.engadget.com/porsche-taycan-ev-cross-country-charging-time-record-160032782.html

 

[Ziggurat]

Why would you need ten times more?

Because it takes more than 10 times as long to charge a car than to fill up a tank.

Most people would fill up at home or work

Most people don't drive long distance most of the time. I'm specifically talking about long distance driving, where filling up on the road is a requirement.

and charging times are dropping all the time. We will get to 100 miles of range in 5 minutes within a few years.

I seriously doubt that. Charging heats batteries, and overheating a battery kills it. I'd like to be wrong, but battery progress has historically been slow, I don't expect that to change.

 

[Ranb]

Most people don't drive long distance most of the time. I'm specifically talking about long distance driving, where filling up on the road is a requirement.

Tesla claims their superchargers can add 200 miles of range in 15 minutes. Even if it was 30 minutes, an old timer like me would prefer to stop every 200 miles (3 hours) for a break while I charge.

I seriously doubt that. Charging heats batteries, and overheating a battery kills it. I'd like to be wrong, but battery progress has historically been slow, I don't expect that to change.

Some EV's have a battery conditioning system that heats or cools the battery prior to charging.

When my brother made an unscheduled stop at a supercharger that was not listed on his Nav, it charged at half the usual rate as the battery had not been conditioned. I don't know why Tesla does not have a feature that allows the driver to tell the car to condition the battery on demand.

As far as I know, the charging rate also slows down when the battery heats up while charging. I watched the charging rate on a Tesla 3 do so.

 

[Dr. Keith]

Because it takes more than 10 times as long to charge a car than to fill up a tank.

Understood.

Most people don't drive long distance most of the time. I'm specifically talking about long distance driving, where filling up on the road is a requirement.

Right. But most people filling up with gas on any given day aren’t driving long range. Charging stations only have to serve long range drivers or end users, such as workplaces or shopping centers. They have fewer customers. Far fewer.

And the rollout can be gradual because the adoption rate will be gradual. It doesn’t have to happen today because EVs don’t work for everyone today. But as the use grows and the charging networks grow they will be useful for more people.

I seriously doubt that. Charging heats batteries, and overheating a battery kills it. I'd like to be wrong, but battery progress has historically been slow, I don't expect that to change.

“According to Porsche, charging from 5 to 80% should take just about 22.5 min, and you can add some 100 km (62 miles) of range in 5 minutes (at low SOC)” in the Taycan, which is a few years old.

Of course, not everyone can afford a Porsche. They may have to settle for a Hyundai.

“When you employ a 350-kW charger, the Hyundai IONIQ 5 will charge its battery from 10% to 80% in 18 minutes. Drivers that are in a hurry and do not need a full charge can gain 68 miles of range in 5 minutes with a 350-kW fast charger.”

So we haven’t gotten to 100 miles in 5 minutes, but I’d say it’s not really unattainable. I’d say it’s more attainable than moving the US to the metric system.

 

[Ziggurat]

Right. But most people filling up with gas on any given day aren’t driving long range.

Sure. But let's look just at gas stations/charging stations along highways, since this is specifically about long range. Often, those places are primarily serving long distance drivers. Even within this subset, we aren't going to build 10 times as many chargers for all of them as we have pumps.

And the rollout can be gradual because the adoption rate will be gradual. It doesn’t have to happen today because EVs don’t work for everyone today. But as the use grows and the charging networks grow they will be useful for more people.

More people, yes. And I explicitly noted earlier in the thread that there's a very large potential market among 2 family households for 1 EV and 1 gas powered car.

But "more people" doesn't have to translate into a significant fraction of long range drivers driving EV's. I don't think it will happen for decades at a minimum, if ever. Pure EV's offer few advantages over plugin hybrids for most users, and none if you need to drive long distance.