• Quick note - the problem with Youtube videos not embedding on the forum appears to have been fixed, thanks to ZiprHead. If you do still see problems let me know.

Cont: Electric Vehicles II

The usual trolls were out on Twitter asking what EV owners would do in the event of an Éowyn-induced power cut. One actually seemed to think a power cut would suck all the charge out of a car battery, leaving it dead. One remarked that there were 800,000 without power in Ireland after the storm...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1883971288815001758
 
I've never understood the haters of EVs. What difference does it make if they power their vehicle with electrons or diesel or gasoline? It still gets them to work or school or the grocery store.

And guess what ICE vehicle owners? The more people that power their vehicles with electricity, the less the demand there is for the gas you pay for at the pump. And what does reduced demand do to prices? It lowers them. EVs reduce the leverage that Exxon, Shell, BP etc have over consumers. I'm looking forward to the day when I own an EV and I recharge it's batteries with my solar panels. I look forward rarely having to pay some corporate conglomerate for the fuel that gets me from point A to point B.
 
Here, it makes better financial sense to sell the electricity you generate in the daytime to the grid for 15p, then charge your car from the grid overnight for 7p. It's also more convenient, because the car doesn't have to be home while the sun is shining. However, last summer I didn't have the paperwork to allow me to get paid for what I exported, so I put every kwh I could into the car. For three months, the car literally ran on sunbeams. It was a remarkably satisfying thought.
 
Rolfe said:
Here, it makes better financial sense to sell the electricity you generate in the daytime to the grid for 15p, then charge your car from the grid overnight for 7p. It's also more convenient, because the car doesn't have to be home while the sun is shining. However, last summer I didn't have the paperwork to allow me to get paid for what I exported, so I put every kwh I could into the car. For three months, the car literally ran on sunbeams. It was a remarkably satisfying thought.
Click to expand...
I'm sure it was. I live in Washington State. We have the cheapest electricity in the US because of the huge amount of hydroelectric power here. By far the most in any State in the country. And we have great net metering plans. But my home is off grid. It would cost me $25,000 to $35,000 dollars up front to hook up to the grid. I don't know how long it would take to earn that back. If I wasn't retired I would do it because I could get a 30 percent credit against my taxes but they won't credit the difference below zero. It would take too long now. I would rather use that money on an EV. And preferably one I could use as an extra battery bank.
 
Rolfe said:
I'm sure you're right, and it will work for you.
Click to expand...
What is amazing to me is just how cheap solar and the batteries has become. And still there is a very high likelihood batteries will continue to get a lot cheaper. I can get used solar panels that are maybe 75 percent efficient of the latest since they degrade at a predictable rate. But they are a fraction of the cost per watt of new panels. And the panels today are are less than half the cost of the panels I installed 6 years ago. But I don't have my panels on my roof. They are free standing on racking I built. I am planning to install at least 200% more solar capacity and battery capacity. The problem is November through January when the amount of solar power falls off a cliff. I end up running the generator to keep things charged. But 9 months of the year the generator goes unused. And in the summer I doubt my battery bank ever drops below 94%.

I see Armageddon for ICE vehicle manufacturers. Maybe not in the next few years. But eventually they won't be able to compete on price. And despite the haters at the moment, most buyers will succumb to the value proposition. It will make too much sense.
 
I think legacy auto and the oil companies are behind much of the FUD. They directly fund the Murdoch press by advertising, and I have my suspicions about the income streams of some of the more prominent social media haters. Toyota, of course, we know about. But in general, legacy auto has been producing the occasional crappy over-priced EV and trying to push people into buying ICE instead (including hybrids). Then suddenly when they're looking into the whites of the eyes of the mandates, they start squealing that the time scale has to be relaxed because nobody wants EVs. No, Ford, nobody wants your EVs. Because they're crap, and you spent years telling people that to get them to buy ICE. And while you were doing that, Tesla, BYD and a few others ate your lunch.

China apparently took a look at the situation some years ago and decided it could never compete with Japan and western car-makers in the ICE car market, but if they ignored ICE and put all their R&D into EVs, they could pull well ahead there. We're seeing the results of that now.

Every ICE car sold is another revenue stream of spare parts and servicing for the next 15 years, and they're determined to get as many of these on the road as they can. They're quite ruthless about it. To the point that a lot of people are ignoring their own best interests and "got to change my car in the next year or two so I can get a new petrol car." (Quote from a friend.) It's actually sad to see people buying into a dying technology like that, facing high fuel costs, high servicing and repair costs, and probably dwindling fuel outlets as these close or convert to EV charging stations. Range anxiety is going to hit them hard.
 
Rolfe said:
I think legacy auto and the oil companies are behind much of the FUD. They directly fund the Murdoch press by advertising, and I have my suspicions about the income streams of some of the more prominent social media haters. Toyota, of course, we know about. But in general, legacy auto has been producing the occasional crappy over-priced EV and trying to push people into buying ICE instead (including hybrids). Then suddenly when they're looking into the whites of the eyes of the mandates, they start squealing that the time scale has to be relaxed because nobody wants EVs. No, Ford, nobody wants your EVs. Because they're crap, and you spent years telling people that to get them to buy ICE. And while you were doing that, Tesla, BYD and a few others ate your lunch.

China apparently took a look at the situation some years ago and decided it could never compete with Japan and western car-makers in the ICE car market, but if they ignored ICE and put all their R&D into EVs, they could pull well ahead there. We're seeing the results of that now.

Every ICE car sold is another revenue stream of spare parts and servicing for the next 15 years, and they're determined to get as many of these on the road as they can. They're quite ruthless about it. To the point that a lot of people are ignoring their own best interests and "got to change my car in the next year or two so I can get a new petrol car." (Quote from a friend.) It's actually sad to see people buying into a dying technology like that, facing high fuel costs, high servicing and repair costs, and probably dwindling fuel outlets as these close or convert to EV charging stations. Range anxiety is going to hit them hard.
Click to expand...
Yep.

I remember very well when all the right wingers etc were bashing solar. Now America is being led by a moron that has made it his goal to help the oil companies and obstruct the adoption of EVs, Solar and Wind. I think they know they will lose in the end. But if they can slow the adoption they will benefit themselves by trillions.
 
Last edited:
Oil companies will adapt to new market demands even if against tbier will.
We will always need lubricants, diesel is going to be king in remote areas far longer than most people think. Electric tech will take a bit more tweaking to match perfomance requirements.

The suburban ICE is probably the first to go the way of the dodo but long haul, heavy haul and stuff like logging and mining will hang on.

On a personal note I can still get two stroke petrol yard tools far cheaper than pro grade battery stuff. The cost of spare OEM batteries is the issue.
It's not how I want to go but it makes sense, right now. I hope tomorrow brings battery prices within reach.
 
8enotto said:
Oil companies will adapt to new market demands even if against tbier will.
We will always need lubricants, diesel is going to be king in remote areas far longer than most people think. Electric tech will take a bit more tweaking to match perfomance requirements.

The suburban ICE is probably the first to go the way of the dodo but long haul, heavy haul and stuff like logging and mining will hang on.

On a personal note I can still get two stroke petrol yard tools far cheaper than pro grade battery stuff. The cost of spare OEM batteries is the issue.
It's not how I want to go but it makes sense, right now. I hope tomorrow brings battery prices within reach.
Click to expand...
Yes, they'll be forced to adapt. Otherwise they will perish even sooner.

Battery prices have been plummeting. They still need to be cut by another 50 percent per watt for them to be a major disruption for personal ICE vehicle demand. But given what has happened recently I feel very comfortable predicting that will happen within 5 years.

3 years ago I purchased 2 ea Battle Born 100ah Lifepo4 batteries for S900 a piece. If you paid $300 ea today for comparable batteries you would have paid too much. And new cheaper batteries with different chemistries are coming. Solid State is just hitting the market. Sulfur and Sodium based batteries should be selling then. I said this two decades ago and it is more true today than ever. "It's all about the batteries and how much they cost." That's an oversimplification because Tesla got a jump on the market by better battery management. But it is generally true.
 
I've been enjoying this discussion, despite the fact that I cant buy an EV. I live in an apartment building which has no provision for EV charging, and isn't likely to get any, except in the few rental garages on the property. (Perhaps 40 garages for 138 apartments.)

It seems highly unlikely that the owners would bear the installation expense, or that the tenants would be willing to connect to a charger unless there were provisions for protecting the outlets or the cables, especially overnight in not well-secure area. There may already be such devices, but if so I am not aware of them.

Also, the contention that US auto manufacturers are delaying and disrupting EV imports, seems to be well-supported.
 
acbytesla said:
What I'd buy if I had the money would be the Chevy Silverado EV. It is cheaper than the cybertruck, has significantly more range, has V2L and is much more practical. Now if I really had the money I would jump up and buy the GMC Sierra EV. But instead of $70K US, it is a $100K.
Click to expand...
None of those are available in Australia- BYD is the most common found here in rural areas- cheap, reliable and generally very well made (better than the few Teslas I have seen for build quality...)

(the Cybertruck doesn't pass Australian safety standards, and is unlikely to ever be sold here)

BYD already have their hybrid ute (the Shark) on sale here, quite impressive for the price (about $65k Au onroad ($40500 US) for a 4wd ute with 100km on its battery before the petrol motor is needed and a 2.4 tonne towing capacity... and the full EV version is going to be available sometime next year...
1738156892216.jpeg

Remarkably good offroad too, from a couple of testers in Australia and NZ, even on its road tyres, it was doing as good as many 4wd's could do on their AT's or MT's... the multiple electric motors and computer traction control made it handle even 'tricky' situations like only having two wheels on the ground flexing, and still driving easily with practically no wheel spin...

The Atto (midsize SUV) is more suited for my needs though- and its about 20k Au cheaper (onroad at $45k Au/$30k US for the extended range version (I live in remote rural Qld), the standard version is fine for those in suburbia and is only $37k Au/$23k US, the MG is a couple of grand cheaper, but not quite as nice a car imho- they are good, but the finish is more on par with a Tesla model 3... just 'not quite up to scratch' with small annoying things like panel fitment, paint quality etc

Considering the Model 3 from Tesla starts at $52k Au for the base model, and is $80k Au for the 'performance' version, I wonder how they sell any at all...
 
xterra said:
I've been enjoying this discussion, despite the fact that I cant buy an EV. I live in an apartment building which has no provision for EV charging, and isn't likely to get any, except in the few rental garages on the property. (Perhaps 40 garages for 138 apartments.)

It seems highly unlikely that the owners would bear the installation expense, or that the tenants would be willing to connect to a charger unless there were provisions for protecting the outlets or the cables, especially overnight in not well-secure area. There may already be such devices, but if so I am not aware of them.

Also, the contention that US auto manufacturers are delaying and disrupting EV imports, seems to be well-supported.
Click to expand...
Countries like Norway who have embraced EVs have made sure that the public charging network is accessible enough (both geographically and financially) to enable those people who cannot charge at home to charge at work or while they're out and about.

It's far from ideal but one of the free car parks in my local town, Chepstow, has a number of "Connected Kerb" chargers which charge at 7kw at close to domestic electricity rates. It you park there for a few hours a couple of times a week then you should be able to keep your charge topped up.

IMO there'll be a change of behaviour. I'm a typical ICE driver who completely fills the fuel tank once it's below 25%. Mrs Don tops up her BEV opportunistically when the opportunity presents and/or the need arises.
 
Places like México home charging is king. There are zero public chargers I have seen.
Hybrids and solar panels on the house are the best options so far. People here love the prius above all, a few Chinese EV versions have began to appear. But not in any significant numbers yet.

It remains to be seen if the Chinese conglomerates will bend to Mexican tax laws long term or try to weasel out like FAW did, leaving a few unlucky owners unable to get parts. I hope for they stay.
 
In Australia the Prius is the one that's unavailable now... it was discontinued here in 2022 after very low sales numbers (they sold only 200 of them in 2021, out of the 223542 vehicles Toyota sold in total that year here)

BYD has really taken off bigtime here, with quite a few different models, including various cars and SUV's, cargo van and hybrid 4wd ute, with Tesla really only having one affordable (???) model in their range here...
https://www.drive.com.au/news/byd-revenue-tops-tesla-for-the-first-time/
 
Last edited:
I don't see how anyone who follows the development of EVs can look into future without seeing major disruption in the car and fossil fuel market. And that disruption, just like home solar is disturbing to those that make a living in both. There are major attempts to prevent that from happening. FUD campaigns, legislation, etc. Even though I think they know that it will eventually fail.

Batteries will continue to get less expensive. They will continue to increase in energy and power density. Power management will get better. The EV motors are becoming even more efficient. Even though they have always been 3 times as efficient as the best internal combustion engine and transmission. EVs in so many ways are significantly less complicated than an ICE vehicle. And it is significantly less expensive to transport electrons from a power plant to the vehicle.

The major impediment has always been the storage and management of electricity. It is expensive. But it has been decreasing in cost every year. The cost of a 1KW lithium battery in 1991 was S7,500. In the year 2000, it was about $1,800. A few years later under a S1,000. By 2010, about $450. By 2018, $180. As of last year A 1 KW battery had reached $115. I don't know where it's going to bottom out. I think we're closing in on how cheap Lithium batteries can get. But other chemistries could make the price of storing electricity even cheaper

This changes everything. It is likely going to make ICE vehicles not competitive on price within the decade. It is still more expensive (at least in the US) to buy an EV. But the clock is ticking.

I get a lot of info about geological or White Hydrogen as a possible alternatives to EVs on my Google and YouTube feeds . Seems like an attempt of the fossil fuels companies to hang on to being the average consumer's energy supplier. I get it. But moving to a hydrogen economy has far more hurdles in front of it than electricity. Still I read about moves to outlaw home solar in the US so at least some big corporation can sell you your electricity. They don't like the idea of consumers not giving them their money.
 
acbytesla said:
I don't see how anyone who follows the development of EVs can look into future without seeing major disruption in the car and fossil fuel market. And that disruption, just like home solar is disturbing to those that make a living in both. There are major attempts to prevent that from happening. FUD campaigns, legislation, etc. Even though I think they know that it will eventually fail.

Batteries will continue to get less expensive. They will continue to increase in energy and power density. Power management will get better. The EV motors are becoming even more efficient. Even though they have always been 3 times as efficient as the best internal combustion engine and transmission. EVs in so many ways are significantly less complicated than an ICE vehicle. And it is significantly less expensive to transport electrons from a power plant to the vehicle.

The major impediment has always been the storage and management of electricity. It is expensive. But it has been decreasing in cost every year. The cost of a 1KW lithium battery in 1991 was S7,500. In the year 2000, it was about $1,800. A few years later under a S1,000. By 2010, about $450. By 2018, $180. As of last year A 1 KW battery had reached $115. I don't know where it's going to bottom out. I think we're closing in on how cheap Lithium batteries can get. But other chemistries could make the price of storing electricity even cheaper

This changes everything. It is likely going to make ICE vehicles not competitive on price within the decade. It is still more expensive (at least in the US) to buy an EV. But the clock is ticking.

I get a lot of info about geological or White Hydrogen as a possible alternatives to EVs on my Google and YouTube feeds . Seems like an attempt of the fossil fuels companies to hang on to being the average consumer's energy supplier. I get it. But moving to a hydrogen economy has far more hurdles in front of it than electricity. Still I read about moves to outlaw home solar in the US so at least some big corporation can sell you your electricity. They don't like the idea of consumers not giving them their money.
Click to expand...
In Australia, EV's are usually at about the same price (or in some cases cheaper) than an equivalent sized ICER- and thats today- not in a decades time...

Hydrogen is a non starter- at least for anything that can be used with EV- the changeover costs for a existing servo from petrol to hydrogen in Australia is about $30-$50 million... which is something no servo can afford...
('white' hydrogen is a myth- its made from oil, and is more commonly called black hydrogen, against green hydrogen - made from water via electrolysis)

The US is a basketcase.... thankfully they are NOT the entire world, who will happily leave them behind... in another decade at most, it will like Russia, left with a crumbling infrastructure, no viable economy and falling ever further behind...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Back
Top Bottom