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Electoral Maps

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leonAzul said:
Because the popular vote does not determine who wins the election, it is the number of electors committed to the candidate that does. The POTUS is not elected by direct plebiscite, but rather by the Electoral College, who are in turn elected at the general election. Each elector declares support for a party or candidate, and that is who is actually being chosen in the general election. Should the College fail to elect on the first ballot, each member is then free to cast a ballot at their discretion--a situation that has not occurred yet.
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So the "electoral maps" from the OP already show the final result
of what the electorates will decide in December - and the estimates
for the popular vote are irrelevant?

I assume that the "electoral map" is just a representation of "popular
vote polls" in individual states. Or do they get the "electoral map data"
from the electorates themselves?
 
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Oliver said:
I still don't get it. Where does the data for the electoral maps
come from? And if the electors will most probably vote based
on the popular vote anyway, why is it important at all to display
those maps?
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The number of electors per state is determined by the number of representatives in Congress--both the House and the Senate. The intent is to balance the interests of the population with the interests of the States.
 
Oliver said:
So the "electoral maps" from the OP already show the final result
of what the electorates will decide in December - and the estimates
for the popular vote are irrelevant?

I assume that the "electoral map" is just a representation of "popular
vote polls" in individual states. Or do they get the "electoral map data"
from the electorates themselves?
Click to expand...

Sorry, I misunderstood your question.

The maps in the OP are estimates based on polls--I'm not sure, but I would guess the numbers are the result of surveys conducted by telephone. They attempt to indicate what the outcome would be if the elections were held today.
 
leonAzul said:
The number of electors per state is determined by the number of representatives in Congress--both the House and the Senate. The intent is to balance the interests of the population with the interests of the States.
Click to expand...


I know that - even if it's hard to understand the electoral colleges
function/purpose nowadays.
 
leonAzul said:
Sorry, I misunderstood your question.

The maps in the OP are estimates based on polls--I'm not sure, but I would guess the numbers are the result of surveys conducted by telephone. They attempt to indicate what the outcome would be if the elections were held today.
Click to expand...


Well, but no matter if polls or surveys - the data is based on
"popular vote data", is it not?

So it's pretty strange that Cleon states that the popular vote
doesn't decide the election - unless there is a draw.
 
Oliver said:
So it's pretty strange that Cleon states that the popular vote doesn't decide the election - unless there is a draw.
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Sure, as long as you believe whatever you want to. And that is why Gore has been president for the last 8 years as SeZme has already pointed out.

But then, this thread was never about finding out the truth, right?
 
MattusMaximus said:
Oliver, Wikipedia is your friend...
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Let me just ask: The "electoral map's" right now are just estimates based
on the average popular vote due to surveys/polls, correct?

And could someone explain to me why an elector chosen by the democrats
should vote for a republican candidate in December if the popular vote after
the election in November is favoring the republican candidate?
 
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If you go to the poll vault thread, you can see recent state polls. The candidates tend to focus their efforts on the so-called "battleground states" those that are within 5 or so percentage points, and thus could go either for McCain or Obama depending on who shows up on election day. No one is spending money campaigning in Illinois, where Obama has a 28 point lead.

Let's look at Nevada. If Obama wins the popular vote in Nevada, even by a single vote, then there will be 5 electors chosen by the Democrats pledged for Obama. If McCain wins, there will be 5 electors chosen by the Republicans pledged for McCain.

The electoral maps are usually shaded: dark blue for solid Obama, light blue for leaning Obama, gray for toss-up, pink for leaning McCain, and red for solid McCain. The projections that you see reflect how many electoral votes each candidate would win if the states that are solid or leaning in their direction vote that way on election day.

Any other questions?
 
gdnp said:
If you go to the poll vault thread, you can see recent state polls. The candidates tend to focus their efforts on the so-called "battleground states" those that are within 5 or so percentage points, and thus could go either for McCain or Obama depending on who shows up on election day. No one is spending money campaigning in Illinois, where Obama has a 28 point lead.

Let's look at Nevada. If Obama wins the popular vote in Nevada, even by a single vote, then there will be 5 electors chosen by the Democrats pledged for Obama. If McCain wins, there will be 5 electors chosen by the Republicans pledged for McCain.

The electoral maps are usually shaded: dark blue for solid Obama, light blue for leaning Obama, gray for toss-up, pink for leaning McCain, and red for solid McCain. The projections that you see reflect how many electoral votes each candidate would win if the states that are solid or leaning in their direction vote that way on election day.

Any other questions?
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Yes, what's the difference between the United states - and the
Battleground states again? It's a farce concerning the popular vote.
 
The United states, I assume, is the overall prediction of what the vote will be nationwide. But as has been pointed out, you can win the national popular vote and still lose the vote in the electoral college.

The battleground states are simply the toss-up states: those that are close enough that the campaigns are pouring in resources with the hope of tipping them in their direction.
 
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Oliver said:
Yes, what's the difference between the United states - and the
Battleground states again? It's a farce concerning the popular vote.
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The name of the country is the the United States of America, not the United Citizens of America. The bias against direct interaction between the federal government and individual citizens has always been there by design, in contrast to the amount of interaction presumed at the local level. It is more accurate to describe the US as a collection of democracies, rather than a monolithic democracy.
 
xixxvmcm85 said:
Now that we're in the age of mouse-click information, is it even necessary anymore?
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Personally, I think the answer is no. However, I am not American so my opinion counts for nothing. Also, I think Americans are (like Australians) reluctant to change the constitution unless it really needs to be changed and only then if the change is obviously for the better. Furthermore, the battleground states and particularly the smaller battleground states (like the pivotal states in the primaries) are favoured by the current process and so they won't want to give up the EC.



Oliver said:
Well, but no matter if polls or surveys - the data is based on
"popular vote data", is it not?

So it's pretty strange that Cleon states that the popular vote
doesn't decide the election - unless there is a draw.
Click to expand...

He was talking about the fact that McCain could still become President even if Obama recieves more votes in total across the entire USA.

The popular vote in Nevada determines who gets the electoral college members from Nevada but you add up the votes in the electoral college to determine who gets the President.


It is almost exactly the same as the Bundesrat. Each state (Lander I think) has an election and the winner of that election gets to form the government in the state. That government gets to appoint the representatives to the Bundesrat from that state.

That is unfair. Look at Bayern (aka Bavaria). Bayern has a population of 12 million but it only gets twice as many votes in the Bundesrat as tiny Bremen which has 663,000 people. Now the CSU (sister party to the CDU) always wins the election in Bavaria and so the representatives of Bavaria in the Bundesrat are always CSU. So Bavarians who don't vote for the CSU aren't represented in the Bundesrat and the Bavarians who are represented only have twice as many votes as the Bremens even though there are around 20 times as many of them.

Oliver said:
Let me just ask: The "electoral map's" right now are just estimates based
on the average popular vote due to surveys/polls, correct?
Click to expand...
Yes.


Oliver said:
And could someone explain to me why an elector chosen by the democrats
should vote for a republican candidate in December if the popular vote after
the election in November is favoring the republican candidate?
Click to expand...

Some can and some can not. The rules are different in various states.


Oliver said:
Yes, what's the difference between the United states - and the
Battleground states again? It's a farce concerning the popular vote.
Click to expand...

Have a look at this wikipedia page about the arguments for and against the electoral college. See what you think.
 
It's basically this: The founders wanted a buffer between what they called Mob Menality and rule, to ensure whoever got in had the respect of lawmakers.

Until the 17th Amendment was passed, for example, Senators were nominated by State Legislatures.

The EC being removed would only remove power from the states even more. YMMV.
 
So far I understand your posts. So what will happen on election day?

People go out and vote, the winner of the popular vote gets all [or majority]
of electors of the state and those will elect the president and vice president.

Now I wonder why they elect the VP as well - I thought it is one ticket anyway...

And Wiki states that the electors are chosen by the parties, so why should
they vote for anyone who's not running for their party?

Or are there 2 groups of electors in each state - and only the winning group
of electors get the chance to vote in December?

It's a little bit confusing concerning the weight of the electorate and the EC.
 
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