Early voting might make it pointless for a Republican to vote on the 4th...

[BenBurch]

You know, they say that fully 1/3 of all votes will already be cast by Nov. 4th, and that the VAST majority of those will have been for Senator Obama.

It might be so overwhelming that it won't even pay to go out and vote if you meant to vote for McCain, because the outcome is no longer in question.

This of course applies to any future election where there is a clear leader in the early voting.

This reminds me of the long-time complaint of the Pacific States that the polls have closed in the East and Midwest and the outcome of the election is determined even before they have voted on election day, only it effects all voters in all states of whichever party is grossly disfavored in early voting exit polling.

 

[joobz]

You know, they say that fully 1/3 of all votes will already be cast by Nov. 4th, and that the VAST majority of those will have been for Senator Obama.

It might be so overwhelming that it won't even pay to go out and vote if you meant to vote for McCain, because the outcome is no longer in question.

This of course applies to any future election where there is a clear leader in the early voting.

This reminds me of the long-time complaint of the Pacific States that the polls have closed in the East and Midwest and the outcome of the election is determined even before they have voted on election day, only it effects all voters in all states of whichever party is grossly disfavored in early voting exit polling.

Early voting results should not be available until after the polls close.

 

[Jimbo07]

Do you guys have timezone specific news blackouts on election night?

it effects all voters in all states of whichever party is grossly disfavored in early voting exit polling.

*shrug* disallow the release of exit polls for early voters before the blackout is lifted...

 

[BenBurch]

No, the networks, some of them, have voluntarily refrained from projecting a winner until the polls in the PST zone have close, of course AK and HI close later than that.

And it would be hard to prevent pollsters from reporting their privately-collected results until after the election without changing the First Amendment...

 

[dudalb]

You know, they say that fully 1/3 of all votes will already be cast by Nov. 4th, and that the VAST majority of those will have been for Senator Obama.

It might be so overwhelming that it won't even pay to go out and vote if you meant to vote for McCain, because the outcome is no longer in question.

This of course applies to any future election where there is a clear leader in the early voting.

This reminds me of the long-time complaint of the Pacific States that the polls have closed in the East and Midwest and the outcome of the election is determined even before they have voted on election day, only it effects all voters in all states of whichever party is grossly disfavored in early voting exit polling.

Ben, you are not trying to discourage Republicans from voting, you being a Democratic Party activist and all?

BTW In California we have several hot proposition battles going on that might encourage turnout.

 

[Nyarlathotep]

Can Republicans not vote early too?

 

[BenBurch]

Can Republicans not vote early too?

Yes. But the early voting is largely not in their favor.

 

[ZenFountain]

I heard when you go to vote there are other things to vote on as well.

 

[gtc]

The argument cuts both ways, Democrats don't need to vote on the day because the election is already won.

And you can extend the argument to suggest that voters in any state that isn't a swing state should stay at home. If your state is going to go to the Democrats (say) then if you are a Republican your vote won't matter and if you are a Democrat then, even if you don't vote, the Democrats will still take your state.

Of course, having an opinion but not voting is leaving yourself open to see the election lost by one vote.

 

[BenBurch]

Ben, you are not trying to discourage Republicans from voting, you being a Democratic Party activist and all?

BTW In California we have several hot proposition battles going on that might encourage turnout.

Of course not. EVERYBODY should vote. In fact were it my call I would make it not optional, a fine to be paid if you did not.

I'm just saying that it might be decided by then and that no amount of Republican turnout will be likely to change anything by then.

And more-so in coming years. It is entirely possible that 2/3 of the votes could be cast early, or even 90% eventually, with election day just being interesting in VERY close races.

 

[Ausmerican]

Ben is practising Psych Ops methinks.
Actually Ben voting is mandatory in Australia with a fine if you dont. Of course there is nothing stopping you from showing up, getting marked off the rolls then either tossing your ballot in still blank or writing in Kylie Minogue for PM or something. But once you are already there most people I know just go ahead and vote. Of course we look at it as a wild encroachment on our civil rights and basically forced labor. That last sentence was sarcasm BTW. I just know a lot of Americans that tell me I should feel that way.

 

[BenBurch]

Ben is practising Psych Ops methinks.

No, I am just asking a question that I thought of. At what point is it hopeless?

 

[BenBurch]

... And you can extend the argument to suggest that voters in any state that isn't a swing state should stay at home. If your state is going to go to the Democrats (say) then if you are a Republican your vote won't matter and if you are a Democrat then, even if you don't vote, the Democrats will still take your state. ...

There is already ample evidence that is just how some people react. In Illinois, they have a very hard time getting Republicans to come out and vote in recent elections.

 

[BenBurch]

I heard when you go to vote there are other things to vote on as well.

Many people seem to not care about downticket races and referendums, and vote straight party on all of those if they come out to vote for President.

 

[Thunder]

I must concur. Republicans should probably just stay home on Election Day. Obama is gonna win anyways...so..what's the point?

 

[Nyarlathotep]

I heard when you go to vote there are other things to vote on as well.

Indeed and I find those other things more relevant than the presidential race. Whether or not my property taxes will be raised to build a new high school is going to impact me every bit as much, if not more, than which douchebag gets elected president.

 

[Nyarlathotep]

Yes. But the early voting is largely not in their favor.

I don't know how accurately that assessment can be made but even if we accept it as 100% true, then I suspect that the outcome would b roughly the same with or without early voting. At this late stage in the game, I think most people have made up their minds one way or the other.

Further, one could argue that if republicans get wind that they are behind in early voting, they will ramp up their 'get out the early vote' efforts.

 

[gtc]

There is already ample evidence that is just how some people react. In Illinois, they have a very hard time getting Republicans to come out and vote in recent elections.

Which suggests that the smart thing to do in safe states is to vote for the party you don't like. If enough people do that you will turn your state into a swing-state and the largesse will flow.

 

[Cleon]

Beware of premature chest-pounding.

You're going to look mighty silly if McCain manages to pull off a win.

And no, it's not impossible. Not by a long shot.

 

[SezMe]

You know, they say that fully 1/3 of all votes will already be cast by Nov. 4th, and that the VAST majority of those will have been for Senator Obama.

Are official results of early voting available? If so, where?