Drought!

[BenBurch]

Like the canary in the coal mine, North Korea falls first;

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/eastasia/view/1210226/1/.html

 

[Corsair 115]

Crop analyst on the radio here yesterday said the next 14 days will tell the story, but if significant rain does not come, the corn harvest for Illinois will be a record low.

He went on to say this could result in a 200%-300% increase in the price of pork and beef next Spring.

Seems to me that would depend on the corn yields elsewhere. What percentage of global corn production does Illinois represent?

 

[BenBurch]

Seems to me that would depend on the corn yields elsewhere. What percentage of global corn production does Illinois represent?

I don't know! I'll see if I can find that.

 

[BenBurch]

In 2011, Illinois produced 1,946,800 bushels of corn.

World production was 32,124,000 bushels.

So, around six percent.

Iowa, also in trouble, is 2,153,250 bushels in 2011.

So, together more than 12% of the total world harvest.

ETA: Source http://www.ncga.com/uploads/useruploads/woc-2011.pdf

 

[BenBurch]

I missed a scaling factor in above, add three zeros to each number of bushels.

I started thinking about it, and it seemed too small.

BTW, a bushel of shelled corn is around 53 pounds, one pound of corn is around 1600 food calories, above the bare survival level, so we can think of each bushel as 53 people fed for one day.

So, between IA and IL, the 2011 harvest represented 217,302,650,000 person-days or around 594,942,231 person-years.

So, you could keep a half-billion people (about 1/14th of the total) alive for a year.

(They would all get pellagra if this was all they ate!)

Even when you factor the corn fed to cattle and the corn made into fuel, this has to have a major impact on world food availability if we lose this harvest.

 

[DC]

i wonder what is wrong with those plants, there is so much plantfood in the air as expert Michele Bachman ponted out. and they die anyway? maybe they die becaues the eco fascists drive hybrid cars.

 

[BenBurch]

i wonder what is wrong with those plants, there is so much plantfood in the air as expert Michele Bachman ponted out. and they die anyway? maybe they die becaues the eco fascists drive hybrid cars.

Damn. My Prius and I just slaughtered millions!

Seriously, this is bad stuff going down DC.

I always maintain a 50 pound bag of rice and a case of canned tuna just in case, I wonder if it will finally have a use?

 

[BenBurch]

Crop Conditions Worsening in U.S. as Drought Withers Fields

http://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...thers-fields/2012/07/09/gJQApaZYZW_story.html

<SNIP>


About 40 percent of the corn crop was in good or excellent condition as of July 8, down from 48 percent a week earlier and the lowest for this time of year since a drought in 1988, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today in a report. An estimated 40 percent of soybeans got the top ratings, down from 45 percent and also the lowest in 24 years for that date.

<SNIP>

 

[BenBurch]

The article I just posted mentions the 1988 drought, since many of you were not alive yet in 1988, it needs some mention. Read the wiki on it; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988_North_American_drought

In the wiki article it is called the costliest natural disaster in US history.

I think we may see that record fall.

 

[DC]

Damn. My Prius and I just slaughtered millions!

Seriously, this is bad stuff going down DC.
I always maintain a 50 pound bag of rice and a case of canned tuna just in case, I wonder if it will finally have a use?

yeah i know i should not be joking. we do not even need lousy harvest to create food shortages in some countries, speculation on rice price is already enough, but now that we might end up with really not enough food, there will without a doubt people die. Sad, but sadly enough its such things we seem to need to finally get the will to actually do something significant.

 

[Howie Felterbush]

I don't want to jinx it, but it's raining!

 

[JeanFromBNA]

The ENSO has switched pretty quickly from La Nina to El Nino conditions. Usually there's a couple of months during which it is called "ENSO neutral." If you look at the graphic images toward the bottom of the page for temperature and precipitation comparisons for previous El Nino and La Nina events in the US, it suggests drought relief in the South and Midwest. On the other hand, the northwest is gonna bake. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/enso.different.html

 

[BenBurch]

I don't want to jinx it, but it's raining!

Same here

 

[Howie Felterbush]

I must have jinxed it.

It rained less than a tenth of an inch.

 

[WildCat]

I must have jinxed it.

It rained less than a tenth of an inch.

Drenching downpour here, it's very wet outside now.

Not that my garden needed it, it drinks Lake Michigan water and the tomatoes and peppers love the hot sunny weather. I have so much I'm going to have to can a batch tomorrow. My seedless grapes are already turning red, and I have at least 2 nearly-basketball sized wateremelon growing in that patch.

*********** squirrels stole all my peaches though.

 

[rwguinn]

Drenching downpour here, it's very wet outside now.

Not that my garden needed it, it drinks Lake Michigan water and the tomatoes and peppers love the hot sunny weather. I have so much I'm going to have to can a batch tomorrow. My seedless grapes are already turning red, and I have at least 2 nearly-basketball sized wateremelon growing in that patch.

*********** squirrels stole all my peaches though.

I love how they grab a peach, climb a tree, take 1 bite out of it, toss it down, then go get another...

 

[bobdroege7]

The article I just posted mentions the 1988 drought, since many of you were not alive yet in 1988, it needs some mention. Read the wiki on it; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988_North_American_drought

In the wiki article it is called the costliest natural disaster in US history.

I think we may see that record fall.

Somehow I knew at some point I would be jonesin for the good ole days like 1988.

 

[WildCat]

So I guess sm eplaces yesterday got over 2 inches of rain, others none at all. Still every bit helps at this point.

Doppler shows lots of heavy rain now in the western part of the state: http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1KCHIa_h.gif

 

[BenBurch]

We got some rain out here today but the weather station reports only 0.18" today. Yesterday was 0.31".

 

[bit_pattern]