I still can't post the link to the article that shows the data from the cart/treadmill test. Hopefully soon! The method used for measuring the thrust and drag may satisfy your requirements regarding balance. The cart is tethered from the rear so that might be increasing the level of friction as you say. It doesn't seem to be causing any issues according to the test. Maybe untethered it would have a larger forward force imbalance according to that.
The amount of forward thrust was taken directly from the scale which was attached behind the cart to restrain the cart from moving forward off the treadmill. That showed the force as a balance (or imbalance) as you prefer. The readings were taken at 1 mph intervals between 4 and 10 mph. The next phase of the test was conducted with two changes: the belt was repositioned so that the propeller turned the opposite direction from the wheels, and the scale and tether repositioned to restrain the cart from moving backwards off the treadmill. The reading from the first test was subtracted from the readings from the second test to remove the imbalance, then that result was divided by two to show the total drag of the cart during operation.
By adding the thrust measured at each point to the drag measured and calculated at each point, the difference between the drag that the cart produced was compared against the thrust for each interval.
The reading at 4 mph was zero and the drag part of the test showed 185 grams. Since the drag part showed the sum of the drag in two directions, the drag in one direction with all systems functioning and accounted for was 92 grams. A thrust of 92 grams balances the drag at that point for a lift to drag ratio of 1:1.
At 10 mph, the measured imbalance was 150 grams and the calculated drag was 402 grams, giving a thrust of 552 grams or a L/D ratio of 1.37:1.
I checked a wind energy calculator to see if the energy needed to provide the thrust measured could be captured from a wind moving at 4 mph given the size of the prop on the cart (40" in diameter). After doing the conversions and using Betz' law as a guideline for the max efficiency, the amount of power available to a wind turbine of the same diameter as the prop is 1.63 watts. That translates to 93.37 grams of thrust at 1.78 m/s, quite close to the test figure of 92.5 grams. For 10 mph, the numbers work out to 25 watts or 585 grams thrust at 4.44 m/s, again within experimental error of 552 grams as indicated by the treadmill test.
The small cart in the other video tends to back those numbers up, with the 169 gram cart "climbing" a 4.4 degree incline at 10 mph, indicating an imbalance of 13 grams force in the forward direction. That would give it an acceleration rate of 2.47 ft/sec2 on level ground in a 10 mph wind when the cart is at 10 mph. The large cart would have an acceleration rate of 2.12 ft/sec2 based on a weight of about 2300 grams (five pounds). The break even speed on the little cart is 2.7 mph vs the large cart's 4 mph, so a little better performance could be expected from the small cart.
So it appears that the energy available from the different wind speeds correlate quite well to the treadmill test. I don't see a reason to reject the thrust explanation out of hand because of a perceived lack of available force. It sounds plausible based on the energy balance.
This is a big cart, and details will change, but I think the same balance rules should apply, but perhaps not the climbing. The effects of friction are so much larger in the small cart.
If you think that thrust is responsible, may be so, I have mentioned that as a possibility, but I see no reason to think that it is necessary.
I don't see that it makes any difference to the fact that it is a balance with a weak thrust in one direction. Whatever, the results are in line with expectations from either explanation, the thrust is small, and of the order of the rolling resistance you mentioned earlier. Hardly enough to support the cart at windspeed.
Tethering is not so reliable because it will add an additional path that will upset the balance. In use, the propeller and wheels are in series, and that ensures the balance.
