Does Putin think America is weak?

[Praktik]

Ukraine was oriented towards Russia and that has changed. That's a big loss for Putin.

I think there's a saying about counting chickens before they hatch that might fit here..

 

[Praktik]

It isn't in Russia's or NATO's interest to rekindle a Cold War. So neither party will. Russia made an exceptional, desperate and dangerous move. All parties likely recognize this and will behave accordingly. It's unlikely Putin will try something similar, and meanwhile NATO will back off from trying to enlarge in the same manner.

Was it desperate or that dangerous?

No real military response is possible. No real economic threat can be leveraged without serious consequences no one wants to bear.

Seems to me it was an assertion of a regional Great Power of its influence over their own periphery - a response to two decades of encirclement and Western attempts to pry Russian satellite states out of Russian orbit. Perhaps a Russian Monroe Doctrine is asserting itself.

Doesn't seem that desperate but more of a game-changing reminder that they're the Big Dog in the area and the west are just yapping from long-distance with no real ability to answer in any way that would impose more cost than benefit for this action.

His "move of desperation" has locked down a very important strategic area of Ukraine under Russian control, rolled back the influence of factions in Ukraine opposed to Russia and exposed Western impotence.

Looks like a clear win for Russia.

 

[Praktik]

<full disclosure> - i'm ethnically estonian and finnish so I have a hard time with Russian power just on a cultural/personal basis, but the realpolitik in me doesn't allow for personal bias. In this sense I welcome that Estonia bought itself some protection by joining NATO but at end of the day - if Putin called that bluff and took over Estonia, would we be looking at another experience like Poland in WWII? "Guarantees" don't always work out that way

 

[Peephole]

Was it desperate or that dangerous?

For starters, it was was a response to the overthrow of a pro-Russian government. This isn't something Russia planned or wanted.

With an invasion there's always a chance the situation devolves into war. And wars can always turn into quagmires (USSR in Afghanistan, Russia in Chechnya, US in Afghanistan again, US in Iraq).

Then there's the diplomatic damage done in the West. And there's the damage done to public opinion in Ukraine. Part of which will probably be even more anti-Russian now.

So yes, I'd say it was a pretty desperate strategy, with risks, and a couple of downsides.

No real military response is possible. No real economic threat can be leveraged without serious consequences no one wants to bear. Seems to me it was an assertion of a regional Great Power of its influence over their own periphery - a response to two decades of encirclement and Western attempts to pry Russian satellite states out of Russian orbit. Perhaps a Russian Monroe Doctrine is asserting itself.

Indeed. It's mostly the lack of a Monroe Doctrine that was so surprising of the Russia of the past twenty years.

The blue vs red maps tell us enough:

Doesn't seem that desperate but more of a game-changing reminder that they're the Big Dog in the area and the west are just yapping from long-distance with no real ability to answer in any way that would impose more cost than benefit for this action.

His "move of desperation" has locked down a very important strategic area of Ukraine under Russian control, rolled back the influence of factions in Ukraine opposed to Russia and exposed Western impotence.

I'm not all that convinced about the strategic importance of Crimea. And all the West "loses" is just another expansion of NATO. Of which the importance was questionable and was mostly just meant to stick it to Russia in the first place.

Looks like a clear win for Russia.

But at this point, they've really gained only a small part of Ukraine, perhaps to lose the rest of it. And in the meanwhile they've damaged relations with the West.

In this sense I welcome that Estonia bought itself some protection by joining NATO but at end of the day - if Putin called that bluff and took over Estonia, would we be looking at another experience like Poland in WWII? "Guarantees" don't always work out that way

This will never happen. And if it would it would lead to war.

 

[Praktik]

Would it lead to WWIII? Who really wants to start that over Estonia?

Just can't see us sacrificing major American cities to nuclear fire over Estonia.

 

[Peephole]

They're NATO members, of course it would lead to war.

Else NATO would just disband.

 

[jimbob]

<full disclosure> - i'm ethnically estonian and finnish so I have a hard time with Russian power just on a cultural/personal basis, but the realpolitik in me doesn't allow for personal bias. In this sense I welcome that Estonia bought itself some protection by joining NATO but at end of the day - if Putin called that bluff and took over Estonia, would we be looking at another experience like Poland in WWII? "Guarantees" don't always work out that way

Britain and France declared war over Poland. After the war it was not liberated from Soviet control, but they were supposed to be our allies in 1945. I really don't think that the US with the British Empire and Commonwealth would have had the ability to roll back the Red army to the Eastern borders of Poland whilst trying to rebuild Europe.

 

[Praktik]

Point being that Poland was run over in a matter of weeks even with guarantees by great powers.

Estonia can be overrun in hours and facts on the ground established - this time with nukes backing both sides.

 

[quadraginta]

Putin is the product of the Cold War Era, he still is stuck in the Us vs Them mindset.

Judging from the discussions and comments I've seen regarding this topic, not least of which among conservatives, there seems to be an awful lot of that going around.

At least as far as domestic consumption is concerned I have to wonder how much of it is sincerely felt and how much is merely posturing by various factions intent on discrediting the current administration, regardless of how healthy that actually is for the U.S. in general.

 

[Darth Rotor]

In this sense I welcome that Estonia bought itself some protection by joining NATO but at end of the day - if Putin called that bluff and took over Estonia, would we be looking at another experience like Poland in WWII?

Article five could make things get real ugly for Russia, real fast.

I'm not all that convinced about the strategic importance of Crimea. And all the West "loses" is just another expansion of NATO. Of which the importance was questionable and was mostly just meant to stick it to Russia in the first place.

Agree, particularly the italics part.
Peephole, when did you and I start agreeing on things?
Has the moon come up blue?

 

[dudalb]

Ted Cruz really makes no sense.



What does Cruz think should have happened? Does he think Obama should have ordered retaliatory bombing runs on the already devastated city? What good would that have done except turn the people there totally against us?



And this seems to just be a fever dream. I seem to recall that Obama drew a red line, it was crossed. America geared up to punish Assad and this caused Assad to cry "Uncle" and gave up his chemical weapons.

In what universe is that anything like what Cruz seems to think happened?

And Ted Cruz was against military action against Assad.
Ted is trying to have his cakea nd eat it too.

 

[Peephole]

Article that talks about how Putin is losing this:

http://time.com/11952/putin-ukraine-crimea-russia/

 

[Praktik]

You write about stuff on forums and then every now and then come across a professional writer who crystallizes everything you want to say about 100 times better, the hits keep on coming from this guy lately! The gnashing of teeth and clutching of pearls in neocon circles has been christmas come early for him. This time the motivation that spurred this gem was another execrable David Brooks column on American "leadership", Larison's response:

If most Americans are more aware of the limits of power generally and U.S. power in particular, I’d say that is a very sensible reaction to more than a decade of overreach and absurd ideological projects, and a very healthy backlash to the delusions of Bush’s Second Inaugural. The U.S. has suffered from an absurd overconfidence in the efficacy of hard power for more than a decade (and really ever since the Gulf War), and Americans have been recoiling from the costs and failures associated with that. I imagine that many Americans are fatigued by being told constantly how vitally important U.S. “leadership” in the world is, and how imperative it is that the U.S. “act” in response to this or that crisis. That fatigue is bound to be encouraged when Americans justifiably have little confidence in political and media classes that have presided over a series of major debacles since the start of the century. That makes it much easier to dismiss alarmism from politicians and pundits, including overblown claims about “menaces to civilization,” but that is not the same as ignoring real threats.​

 

[dudalb]

Putin is the product of the Cold War Era, he still is stuck in the Us vs Them mindset.

There is truth in that, but Putin seems to be also seeped in good old fashioned Russian Ultra Nationalism,which predates the Soviet Union.

 

[dudalb]

Polls show for the first time in a long time. the large majority of Americans see Russia as a threat.
Nice going, Vladimir. You have just made it political suicide for any American Politician to support improved relatations with Russia, at least while you are around.

 

[elbe]

There is truth in that, but Putin seems to be also seeped in good old fashioned Russian Ultra Nationalism,which predates the Soviet Union.

It's just my personal opinion but I think that the biggest attachment Putin has to the Soviet state was it's place in the world. I think he wants to be that same superpower again and maybe, to him, the best way to achieve that is putting Russia at odds with the US like in the old days.

 

[dudalb]

It's just my personal opinion but I think that the biggest attachment Putin has to the Soviet state was it's place in the world. I think he wants to be that same superpower again and maybe, to him, the best way to achieve that is putting Russia at odds with the US like in the old days.

Pretty much what I said. Fact is, foreign policy under the Czars and the Soviet Union did not change in it's basic goals very much. Main diffrence was that the Soviet Union got a lot more support in foreign countries because Communism could be sold overseas a lot easier then Holy Mother Russia and Pan Slavism.

 

[SezMe]

Nice going, Vladimir. You have just made it political suicide for any American Politician to support improved relatations with Russia, at least while you are around.

Yep. Any attempt at diplomacy is labeled "appeasement" which is a lethal, four-letter word in every 30-second political ad.

 

[MaGZ]

A lot has been made in recent days about how this terrible stuff Putin is doing wouldn't have happened if Putin just feared the USA they way he should.

Some of the reasoning behind this is.....odd.

http://www.americanthinker.com/2014/03/putin_doesnt_threaten_our_national_security_obama_does.html



http://www.afa.net/Radio/show.aspx?id=2147490378&tab=video&video=2147543962​

So....Putin doesn't fear America because Putin thinks gay people are all sissies who, strangely, only bring sex toys into a battle because I guess gay people don't mind being slaughtered by an enemy with actual guns. If Putin really is that stupid wouldn't it be a great way to goad him into a trap?

And can anyone actually point to something Obama did that would have in any way made Putin think America is somehow a weakling that can be pushed around?

Putin met Obama; enough said.

 

[thaiboxerken]

Polls show for the first time in a long time. the large majority of Americans see Russia as a threat.
Nice going, VladimirRepublicans. You have just made it political suicide for any American Politician to support improved relatations with Russia, at least while you are around.

I fixed that for you.