We'll just have to disagree on whether benefits of belief make belief more reasonable. Your knees explode isn't a good example because no one else believes it. On the other hand, the anger/cancer belief could be easily changed to an anger/heart disease link which has some evidence thats it's true. In "Society of Mind" by Marvin Minsky, he discusses the use of such small personal beliefs. It's not an uncommon self-motivational trick to convince yourself of something you don't know for certain to be true, in order to benefit from how you will act if you hold that belief.
The fact that you call this a "trick" shows, I think, that you realize that the "benefit" of the action has no relationship at all to the "truth" of the belief.
I understand that. I happen to think to agnostic is a fine term for a person lacking a settled, coherent position.
I doubt many self-described agnostics will agree with you that their position is "incoherent" and feel happy about that. I also don't think that we need a special category simply for people who are muddled or confused in their thinking. In any event, I very much doubt that most theists who are actively struggling with doubts would thank you any more for being labeled "agnostic" than for being labeled "atheist." It just doesn't seem to describe their position well.
Not necessarily. Some religious people are as comfortable with their doubts as athests are with theirs. My problem with your definition is that it seems to me it would encompass such people as atheists and that seems inappropriate to me.
For the umpteenth time: if you are a believer who continues to believe despite your doubts then you're a theist--not an atheist. If you are "comfortable" with your doubts and still a "religious person" then you are surely a theist, no? Unless you mean by "religious person" that you simply go along to church because you like the company, the ritual etc.--but you don't believe that there's any god behind it all. In that case you're, equally simply, an atheist.
You haven't addressed the probability aspect adequately IMO. You seem perfectly willing to accept a near-certainty that no gods exist as a rational position. That's putting a probability on gods existance. If we know nothing at all about the probability, then why is it rational to give it a near zero probability, but assigning any other probability irrational?
It amazes me how people argue with the positions they expect you to hold, no matter how many times you've expressly and categorically denied them. Where did I once say that I was "perfectly willing to accept a near-certainty that no gods exist"? I have said, over and over and over and over, that statements as to the probability of a god's existence are simply
meaningless. Someone who says "it is 99% certain that there are no gods in the universe" is simply making a statement about the degree of their personal expectations of being proven wrong. In other words, they are making a completely random guess that tells me something about their disposition, but nothing whatsoever about the probability of god or a god's existence.
Let me try to give you an analogy:
If you ask me "what is the probability that the first person you meet tomorrow will be called John" I can give you some kind of sensible answer. I can find out what percentage of people in this country are called John. I can think about the people of my aquaintance in my neighbourhood and at my work who are called "John" etc. etc.--and then I can give you a meaningful (though not perfectly accurate, of course) assessment of whether this is highly probable or highly improbable (as it would be, say, if I was the only person of European descent living in a remote village in China).
Now, say you ask me "what is the probability that the first person you meet and talk to tomorrow will be Urgok-plop from the planet Blarrgh"? The answer is obviously not "zero." Obviously, for all we know, there could be some planet called "Blarrgh" and an intrepid voyager called Urgok-plop could be on his way from there to earth. So, it is no "impossible." How "likely" is it? Beyond saying "it's not impossible" there is simply
nothing I can say. I don't know anything about any of the relevant variables. I don't know if there is a "planet Blarrgh." I don't know if the people on that possible planet have names, or indulge in space tourism etc. I can't even say "oh well, I've never encountered an alien before, therefore encountering
any alien tomorrow is unlikely"--I just don't know enough about possible forms of alien travel, possible frequencies, possible motivations etc. (Who knows, maybe whenever anyone says the magic words "Urgok-plop from the planet Blarrgh" he hops in his intersteller worm-hole rider and goes to visit them?).
In the absence of
any relevant evidence, any discussion of probability is simply meaningless.
Personally, I like being able to distinguish between strong* believers, strong atheists and those less certain. If the distinction is of no importance to you, you can ignore it.
*by strong, I mean fairly well convinced of their conclusions even if they are not 100% certain and therefore technically agnostic.
Except that the terminology keeps getting everyone confused (just look at this thread). People conflate "weak atheist" and "strong atheist" so they think "atheist" means "faith in the godlessness of the universe" rather than simply the lack of belief in any god. I don't even really know what you mean by a "strong" believer vs. a "weak" believer. I think what you probably mean has something to do with the percentage of time that these different "believers" spend feeling fully convinced of their belief. But then "strong" belief wouldn't actually be a state different from "weak belief." There would be just one state--"belief"--that some people occupy consistently and some don't.
Your term "fairly well convinced" sounds like it means "mostly persuaded by the evidence"--which would be a meaningful distinction--but I don't think that's really what you mean. There have been plenty of devout Christians, after all, who have burned with a steadfast flame of belief but who have argued strongly that to seek "evidence" of God is precisely to miss the point of "faith." In your categorization are those people "weak believers" or "strong believers"? They aren't "convinced by the evidence" at all--they agree with atheists that there
is no evidence. But they "believe" none the less.