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Do polygraph tests qualify for the prize?

bighairygoat said:
I've been thinking about this off and on for a couple of hours and I still can't work out what this actually demonstrates. Simplistically I'm thinking if all five are asked the question "did you cook the books?" the answers would be -

For people one through four, answer "no" is true.
For person five answer "no" is also true - (s)he's only role-playing, but she's the only one with a chance of winning $500.

So are the polygraphists really finding who is lying, or who has been offered $500 if they can convince the polygraphists the answer "no" is true?

My head is spinning :)

Good points. There was a clear difference in how the one acted relative to the other 4, so what would the alternate conclusion be?

Just to clarify, I'm not a woo here, not arguing that polygraphs are the ◊◊◊◊◊. Just curious as to what-- if any-- validity they have, and how much of that validity is due to the test itself, or other things the testers do once they get em in there.

I don't think it's a conspiracy theory issue either. The validity if any wouldn't hinge on the suspect sincerely believing in the accuracy of the lie detector. It's just a pretext to get the suspect in.

Plus, just saying something like the lie detector, in combination with other investigative techniques, increase the reliability and validity of the test such that its utility is defensible.
 
jmercer said:
If lie detectors don't really work and are intentionally used as a prop for psychological leverage during interrogations, it would have to be kept utterly secret to maintain the effectiveness of the technique. Once the "secret" was out, the bad guys wouldn't believe in the detector and the technique wouldn't work. So for this to remain effective, law enforcement agencies at all levels - Federal, State and local - would have to have hidden this "secret" for decades.

That sounds far to close to a conspiracy theory from my perspective.
It's not that polygraphs are completely bogus and the physical response aspect is made up. They *do* measure that effect. The result, however, is far from the completely unambiguous nature that naive people both wish and believe they have, and that would be required for use in a court of law.

The general public sees portrayals of polygraph machines in the entertainment media. They believe they work because they see them work.

www.antipolygraph.org is a good resource that explains the point of view of the nay-sayers.
 
I remember reading a story (allegedly true) about a suspect who was being interrogated. The police told him they were going to give him a lie-detector test, then took him into a room with all sorts of crazy-looking equipment. I've forgotten what some of the random background props were, but the central piece was a metal collander attached by wires to a photocopier. On the glass inside the copier was a sheet of paper on which they had written the words "HE'S LYING." They sat the guy down, put the collander on his head, and started asking him questions. After every answer, an officer would press the COPY button, and vvvvt, out it would come, "HE'S LYING." And of course they made sure that he could see it.

After a few repetitions of this, he panicked and confessed.
 
Its not just antipolygraph.org and "nay-sayers" that raise alarms. The National Research Council conducted a study The Polygraph and Lie Detection (2003) that found the use of polygraphs for security screening of employees and potential employees was worthless.

They also come to the conclusion that in investigating an "incident" (i.e. crime), the polygraph test "can discriminate lying from truth telling at rates well above chance, though well below perfection."

The government has ignored its own conclusions, and still demands routine polygraph testing of DOE employees. The state of New Mexico (and perhaps others) allow polygraph tests to be submitted as evidence to the courts.

I'm happy to say that my own state of Minnestota is enlightened on this and it is illegal here to give someone a pre-employment polygraph, or to test your employees for "security" reasons. Polygraph test results, or such information as to whether a person submitted to or refused to take a polygraph test, are inadmissable in both civil and criminal courts. It is incomprehensible that this isn't the case across the country.

While they are not paranormal, they are quack science and the machines belong in the junk heap, or in one of those museums of quack medical devices.
 
bpesta22 said:
Good points. There was a clear difference in how the one acted relative to the other 4, so what would the alternate conclusion be?

Performance anxiety. One person thinking "If I do this perfectly, I'll win $500" vs. four people thinking "What a fun little role-playing game."

Ironically, anxiety from any cause would be one thing a polygraph test would measure quite well.
 
Pup said:
Performance anxiety. One person thinking "If I do this perfectly, I'll win $500" vs. four people thinking "What a fun little role-playing game."

Ironically, anxiety from any cause would be one thing a polygraph test would measure quite well.

I'd agree that a lie detector is probably an excellent measure of state anxiety.

I just wonder in this specific scenario how much of the variance in performance anxiety is shared with anxiety caused by lying.

Also, a common theme here seems to be if it aint paranormal, it won't be tested. Still curious about why graphology qualifies if anyone knows....
 
bpesta22 said:

Also, a common theme here seems to be if it aint paranormal, it won't be tested. Still curious about why graphology qualifies if anyone knows....
Theres no scientific basis for personality analysis based on handwritting. With polygraphs there is a definate correlation between lying for gain and physical stress levels, it's just not that reliable.
 
Re: Re: Re: Do polygraph tests qualify for the prize?

Hastur said:

The way polygraph use is generally depicted, the interpreters ask several "control" questions, having the subject answer truthfully or deliberately lie to some meaningless questions. The way I envision the interpreters getting the polygraph sheets is they will be given the controls for comparison and ten readouts from questions asked. The interpreters will not know who the polygraph subjects are nor what questions were asked of them.
You also need to randomise the polygraph order to prevent prior agreement of the truthfulness of statements.
 
Re: Re: Re: Re: Do polygraph tests qualify for the prize?

Jekyll said:
You also need to randomise the polygraph order to prevent prior agreement of the truthfulness of statements.

Randomize the order the test interpreters get the polygraph readouts? That can be done.
 
Jekyll said:
Theres no scientific basis for personality analysis based on handwritting. With polygraphs there is a definate correlation between lying for gain and physical stress levels, it's just not that reliable.

So, in other words, the dichotomy is not whether it's paranormal, yes or no, but whether it has some less then perfect reliability / validity?

Then, were the evidence against lie detectors more conclusive, they would qualify for Randi's prize?
 
KRAMER said:

Asshat -- whether you as the official keeper of the keys answered me or not wasn't that big a deal. Hoping for you to reply is not why I started the thread, but please don't patronize me with single word answers.

As "facilitator" of a touted prize, you come across as more arrogant than the master himself. Not my call, but this doesn't seem like the image the foundation wants to portray for the keeper of the test keys. It supports the psychics' contentions that skeptics are grumpy arrogant pessimists who have no interest in fairly testing anything.

So be it, more confirmation that not renewing my membership a few year's back was the right call. You remind me of the cop with the 107 IQ whose certain he's smarter and better than every driver he pulls over. Whatever...

Also, yes, I understand, if I would have researched everything Randi ever said or wrote, then surely I would have found the answer to my question, thus making this post unnecessary and freeing up more room for mission related threads like tttwnd, or whether diapers left in pantries are problematic.

:(
 
bpesta22 said:
So, in other words, the dichotomy is not whether it's paranormal, yes or no, but whether it has some less then perfect reliability / validity?

This seems a misreading of Jekyll's statement.

The reason that graphology is paranormal is because there is no known or theorized mechanism by which it might work. (Let me emend that slightly. A few practitioners do offer theories as to why graphology works, but these theories are universally incompatible with the accepted body of psychometric results.)

The reason that polygraphs are not paranormal is because there is a valid scientific basis underlying them -- they are measuring the autonomic nervous system's response to stress, including the stress of lying to the operator. They don't work well or reliably, but the underlying theory is at least plausible and in keeping with science as we know it.

Similarly, the claim that I could fly on an Arabian Nights flying carpet would be paranormal. The claim that I could fly using a James Bond backpack helicopter would not be. Both are equally impossible in the present day, but there is at least some valid science under the second claim. It is "merely" a few scientific breathrroughs away.
 
bpesta22 said:
Asshat -- whether you as the official keeper of the keys answered me or not wasn't that big a deal. Hoping for you to reply is not why I started the thread, but please don't patronize me with single word answers.
Huh? What answer would you have wanted which would have given you more information?
 
new drkitten said:
This seems a misreading of Jekyll's statement.

The reason that graphology is paranormal is because there is no known or theorized mechanism by which it might work. (Let me emend that slightly. A few practitioners do offer theories as to why graphology works, but these theories are universally incompatible with the accepted body of psychometric results.)

The reason that polygraphs are not paranormal is because there is a valid scientific basis underlying them -- they are measuring the autonomic nervous system's response to stress, including the stress of lying to the operator. They don't work well or reliably, but the underlying theory is at least plausible and in keeping with science as we know it.

Similarly, the claim that I could fly on an Arabian Nights flying carpet would be paranormal. The claim that I could fly using a James Bond backpack helicopter would not be. Both are equally impossible in the present day, but there is at least some valid science under the second claim. It is "merely" a few scientific breathrroughs away.

You're saying graphology is a paranormal claim? There are lots of projective tests that at least can be strutinized by psychometrics like the ink blots, thematic apperception test (here's a picture, write a story-- the story then reveals one's one motives / needs), or the draw a person test for kids.

If graphology were valid, i think scientific / testable hypotheses could be generated for why. It just so happens its not valid, so there's nothing to explain. To me, though, that doesn't make it paranormal.
 
manny said:
Huh? What answer would you have wanted which would have given you more information?

Perhaps I read too much into the two "no" replies (which wouldn't be hard to do). Thin skinned, or my perceptions are accurate, I dunno...
 
bpesta22 said:
Perhaps I read too much into the two "no" replies (which wouldn't be hard to do). Thin skinned, or my perceptions are accurate, I dunno...

If I got brushed off with two "no" replies I would have gotten annoyed myself.
 
bpesta22 said:
You're saying graphology is a paranormal claim?

Um, yes.

It's paranormal because it's not compatible with science as we know it. This puts it in the same camp with astrology and numerology.


If graphology were valid, i think scientific / testable hypotheses could be generated for why.

And, again, this puts it in the same camp with astrology and numerology. If either of these were valid, scientists would eventually develop scientific/testable hypotheses to explain their validity, because the purpose of science is to explain valid effects.

However, in the case of astrology, numerology, or graphology, the eventual explanation would almost certainly involve a radical restructuring of "science as we know it," because science as we currently know it doesn't have any accepted theories lying around to explain them. If any of these three were valid, we'd have to build a new theory, essentially from the ground up.

So scientists could build a theory of how astrology works, but they don't, because they don't see a need. Absent a demonstration that it works, there's no need to explain something that isn't there.

By contrast, we know a lot, independently, about the autonomic nervous system and how it works. So we have a good theory about how polygraphs should work or might be able to work, even though they don't.

The difference between the paranormal and the normal is not whether or not it works. Lots of "normal" stuff doesn't work (although almost by definition, none of the paranormal stuff does). But the normal stuff that doesn't work at least has a legitimate, accepted explanation for the process by which it should work. There is no legitimate explanation for the process by which graphology should work, because by all our scientific theories and observations, it shouldn't.
 
bpesta22 said:
Perhaps I read too much into the two "no" replies (which wouldn't be hard to do). Thin skinned, or my perceptions are accurate, I dunno...
Fair enough, and I know KRAMER has a rep for being somewhat brusque. But since others have explained in detail the reasons why the answer is "no" I think the "asshat" comment was uncalled for when all KRAMER did was give the official answer to accompany the unofficial explanations.
 
Respectfully, I disagree that graphology is paranormal. I agree that it don't work, but if it did, any number of existing, well tested pscyhological theories could explain it. No paradigm shift required (unlike with proving esp, numerollogy, astrology or any typical "paranormal" claims)

There's a huge literature on priming showing that things hitting our sense receptors-- even though we don't report perceiving them-- nonetheless infuence behavior.

And, there is a huge literature on how automatic cognitive and social cognitive process influence our behavior without (by definition) our intention or awareness.

That one's personality could/might influence his or her handwriting without awareness is a reasonable empirical question, that could also fit in easily with existing theories in cognitive and social psychology.

It just so happens it aint so.

Further supporting the reasonableness of asking the question-- one can significantly predict gender based on handwriting analysis. So, the hypothesis that other individual difference factors (i.e., personality) might also do this is reasonable, and within the realm of "everyday" experimental psychology.

I recall a study using the TAT where people looked at a picture and then wrote a story about what was going on. The idea was that subconsciously people would reveal their own motives and needs in the stories that they wrote. Sounds fluffy, but:

After writing the stories, people played a ring tossing game. The target / rod was in the center of the room, and they were allowed to stand as close or as far to the target as they wanted.

Those high in the need for acheivement-- as measured by the story writing-- consistently stood between 10 and 20 feet away from the target; making the toss challenging but not impossible.

Those low in the need either stood right over the target and dropped the rings, or stood so far away that performance was based on luck versus skill.

So the theory is that unconscious needs and desires can influence subsequent behavior without our awareness. I think if graphology were valid, it could be easily explained by the same theories that explain the ring tossing stuff.

JMO

B



new drkitten said:
Um, yes.

It's paranormal because it's not compatible with science as we know it. This puts it in the same camp with astrology and numerology.



And, again, this puts it in the same camp with astrology and numerology. If either of these were valid, scientists would eventually develop scientific/testable hypotheses to explain their validity, because the purpose of science is to explain valid effects.

However, in the case of astrology, numerology, or graphology, the eventual explanation would almost certainly involve a radical restructuring of "science as we know it," because science as we currently know it doesn't have any accepted theories lying around to explain them. If any of these three were valid, we'd have to build a new theory, essentially from the ground up.

So scientists could build a theory of how astrology works, but they don't, because they don't see a need. Absent a demonstration that it works, there's no need to explain something that isn't there.

By contrast, we know a lot, independently, about the autonomic nervous system and how it works. So we have a good theory about how polygraphs should work or might be able to work, even though they don't.

The difference between the paranormal and the normal is not whether or not it works. Lots of "normal" stuff doesn't work (although almost by definition, none of the paranormal stuff does). But the normal stuff that doesn't work at least has a legitimate, accepted explanation for the process by which it should work. There is no legitimate explanation for the process by which graphology should work, because by all our scientific theories and observations, it shouldn't.
 

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