Oops, yes, that was actually my first thought.
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Disappearance of Dr Michael Mosley
- Thread starter Orphia Nay
- Start date
Oops, yes, that was actually my first thought.
Matthew Best
Penultimate Amazing
The whole TGA thing seems a bit speculative also. People very rarely have more than one experience of TGA, so if he'd had one before, it's not very likely it affected him this time.
Well, if the first was brought on by extreme conditions (icy cold water), it's not that unreasonable to speculate a second was triggered by excessive heat, as they are typically triggered by something external, and they do also seem more common with age. And it's certainly not unknown to have more that one episode of TGA - 15% of those who have one have multiple ones according to wikipedia; a friend has just had their second only a couple of months after their first.
That said, it's not necessary to invoke a TGA episode to explain what happened, Rolfe's explanation seems very persuasive by itself.
Rolfe
Adult human female
I have been there, last year, but not to a useful extent. I was in a boat which circumnavigated the island. We called in at Pedi in the late afternoon, then anchored off Agia Marina for a swim. There, my friend snorkelled so far away from the boat that they had to raise anchor and sail over to fetch her. But it gave me enough awareness of the lie of the land to become curious about what happened. That, plus Google satellite view, plus some perceptive things other people said on Twitter made it quite obvious to me what had happened. The potential for going wrong where the path turns right, and the potential consequences of doing that, seem obvious. Then the guy who had done exactly that (despite having walked the path multiple times in the opposite direction) and written a blog post about it joined the conversation, trying to alert the media.
Thinking about it, I believe Michael Mosley's children also worked it out about the same time, probably independently - they were on the ground. It's reported that they searched the area where he was found on Saturday afternoon, but somehow missed seeing the body. They were very unlikely to have been doing that by sheer chance. And their mother's statement is absolutely consistent with her understanding exactly what happened.
All that rubbish about him going east instead of west at Pedi by mistake, thinking he was heading for Symi? That's just ridiculous. As was the suggestion that he intentionally decided to walk a long trackless loop round to Symi in that heat. (It's not really trackless but there's nothing marked on Google maps.)
It was someone else on Twitter who said, he was obviously going to Agia Marina to get the water taxi back to Symi, and that was just so obviously right. Then I had a look at Google satellite view and could see the obvious place to go wrong. Then the blog author joined in.
Really, I think the authorities were all over the place. Not thinking logically, not requesting CCTV images promptly, and haring off after mad ideas like maybe he got to Agia Marina (even though nobody saw him there) and THEN went exploring dangerous caves! But all without requesting the Agia Marina CCTV footage. Which wasn't looked at until after the body was found. It wouldn't have saved him, he was dead before he was reported missing, but lessons should be learned.
If I knew how to post links on this phone I would, but if you're on Twitter, search for "Agia Marina" under "latest" and you should find a lot.
Thinking about it, I believe Michael Mosley's children also worked it out about the same time, probably independently - they were on the ground. It's reported that they searched the area where he was found on Saturday afternoon, but somehow missed seeing the body. They were very unlikely to have been doing that by sheer chance. And their mother's statement is absolutely consistent with her understanding exactly what happened.
All that rubbish about him going east instead of west at Pedi by mistake, thinking he was heading for Symi? That's just ridiculous. As was the suggestion that he intentionally decided to walk a long trackless loop round to Symi in that heat. (It's not really trackless but there's nothing marked on Google maps.)
It was someone else on Twitter who said, he was obviously going to Agia Marina to get the water taxi back to Symi, and that was just so obviously right. Then I had a look at Google satellite view and could see the obvious place to go wrong. Then the blog author joined in.
Really, I think the authorities were all over the place. Not thinking logically, not requesting CCTV images promptly, and haring off after mad ideas like maybe he got to Agia Marina (even though nobody saw him there) and THEN went exploring dangerous caves! But all without requesting the Agia Marina CCTV footage. Which wasn't looked at until after the body was found. It wouldn't have saved him, he was dead before he was reported missing, but lessons should be learned.
If I knew how to post links on this phone I would, but if you're on Twitter, search for "Agia Marina" under "latest" and you should find a lot.
Rolfe
Adult human female
Another thing. I don't for a second believe that he had had some sort of "episode" or that he was mentally addled by the heat. He was walking briskly and purposefully at Pedi. Although the Agia Marina CCTV footage has not been released, everything points to him trying his best, rationally, to get to Agia Marina beach, even though he had lost the track. He wasn't wandering aimlessly, he was absolutely on course once he caught sight of the beach compound. At the last he was sensibly trying to follow the fence down to the shore where the entrance was. He just didn't quite make it.
I suppose it's possible he did buy more water in Pedi before he set out for Agia Marina, and the person who sold it to him just doesn't remember. It's hard to see how he made it so far if he didn't.
I suppose it's possible he did buy more water in Pedi before he set out for Agia Marina, and the person who sold it to him just doesn't remember. It's hard to see how he made it so far if he didn't.
Explorer
Graduate Poster
- Joined
- Jun 22, 2003
- Messages
- 1,521
Your explanation is quite convincing, but the trouble I have had with all this from day one, is that personally, I would not have risked that length of walk in those conditions, as I know what extreme heat can do if you cannot get to a place of refuge quickly enough to cool down if you get into trouble.
This is probably because I am over cautious, always avoid uncomfortable situations as a consequence, and the fact that I am not athletic anymore, at the age of 78. So your explanation for me in my head, works only if Dr Mosley had an overdose of misplaced bravado.
That’s really interesting, Rolfe, thanks.
How do you believe he died? Overheating?
How do you believe he died? Overheating?
Rolfe
Adult human female
Sunstroke, dehydration, hyperthermia. Electrolytes probably shot to hell. I don't know if he bought more water in Pedi, but I don't think he could have been carrying enough even if he did.
It's an absolute tragedy. I'm certain that if he hadn't missed that turning he'd have got to Agia Marina OK and recovered, even if he had been a bit frayed round the edges.
It's an absolute tragedy. I'm certain that if he hadn't missed that turning he'd have got to Agia Marina OK and recovered, even if he had been a bit frayed round the edges.
Rolfe
Adult human female
I'm absolutely on board with the misplaced bravado explanation. That, plus underestimating the difficulty of the terrain on the north side of the bay, plus not factoring in that he might miss the path. The path he had already walked from the St Nicholas beach to Pedi is well defined.
Bear in mind that he was still in great form walking through Pedi, and it's barely a mile from there to Agia Marina. He did underestimate the difficulty, but it was missing the turning that did for him. If it hadn't been for that there's no doubt he'd have got to Agia Marina OK. He might have said, whew that was a lot rougher than I bargained for, but the whole thing would have been forgotten in a day or two.
Given that he damn near made it even doing it the really hard way with that awful climb in the hottest part of the day, I think it's hard to say he was insanely foolhardy in what he planned to do. Unwise, yes, but without losing the path it would have been within his capabilities.
Rolfe
Adult human female
In fact he got much further than I thought he would, once I realised he must have missed that turning. On Saturday I was opining on Twitter that he had probably succumbed to the heat or had a fall somewhere on the hillside past the place where Google satellite view shows a gap in a rocky ridge which he must have walked through. After that the ground rises steeply - that's the terrible climb his wife referred to. I didn't think he'd make it.
On Sunday, when I heard his body had been found actually at Agia Marina but outside the fence, I thought, what the hell, but I must have been wrong. But then I realised he'd been found on the north side of the beach (where my friend strayed to with her snorkel) whereas the regular path comes in on the south side. Then it was obvious what had happened. He actually managed that difficult climb, saw his destination over to his right, headed for it, and even managed the difficult and steep descent down to the bay. Far more than I thought he'd have been capable of. And expired 40 metres from the entrance. I could cry just thinking about it.
On Sunday, when I heard his body had been found actually at Agia Marina but outside the fence, I thought, what the hell, but I must have been wrong. But then I realised he'd been found on the north side of the beach (where my friend strayed to with her snorkel) whereas the regular path comes in on the south side. Then it was obvious what had happened. He actually managed that difficult climb, saw his destination over to his right, headed for it, and even managed the difficult and steep descent down to the bay. Far more than I thought he'd have been capable of. And expired 40 metres from the entrance. I could cry just thinking about it.
While I don't doubt the reasonableness and likely truth of your account, I have to say it seems strange to me. I'm only a few years younger than Mosley, but I'm very accustomed to thinking of walking distances of a mile or less as trivially manageable, regardless of bad terrain or uncomfortable conditions. Shirt sleeves in a winter blizzard? Overdressed or unprotected in dangerous heat? Meh, it's only a mile. As long as I don't get lost, injured, or sick I just assume I'd be okay. I worry about getting dehydrated because I know it would be bad for my kidneys (so I do bring water on walks) but if I didn't have it I wouldn't be worried about dropping dead in an hour.
This suggests two things. One, I should recalibrate my tolerance for discomfort and risk in the next few years. Two, I think it's likely that some other factor, such as an injury or medical event, contributed to Mosley not making those last few dozen meters.
Thermal
August Member
Senior citizen walking in extreme heat and rocky terrain. Color me obtuse, but is this actually not a puzzling Scooby-Doo mystery?
Well, now he's been found, it's no longer a mystery. And 'senior citizen' is a bit dismissive; he was only 67, and pretty fit for his age. Being over 60 doesn't make you automatically frail and likely to drop dead if you get a bit warm.
Shrinker
Graduate Poster
- Joined
- Oct 25, 2004
- Messages
- 1,618
The mystery has been why, if the cause of his death is so obvious, did a doctor take the risk. It's coloured a little bit by the fact he was a very well liked personality in the UK, and accusations he was just stupid sting a little for those who liked or respected him. There has to be a better answer.
The answer, it turns out is that the route is far shorter than what people were claiming up front. i.e. he never planned on a 2 hour hike into the mountains, but a 0.8 mile walk along an (almost) coastal path. It shouldn't have killed him at all. What killed him was a wrong turn into a 150ft climb and him probably getting stuck in a sunk cost trap of repeatedly thinking he was almost at the top.
Thermal
August Member
Being fit senior, or knowing better, or being a doctor doesn't really matter, though. He wouldn't be the first person to be killed by hubris. Hell, don't we all do stuff we shouldn't, thinking we'll be fine?
Chanakya
,
- Joined
- Apr 29, 2015
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This would've made for a great detective story. Exotic setting, interesting somewhat-famous cast, small island, colorful locals, misinformation about how difficult it is to get lost. ...Okay, sure, so this death turned out to be neither murder nor suicide, sure, but the investigation would've uncovered two or three minor crimes and some actual murders, all unrelated; and then, finally, sure, the story ends with this anticlimax about the cause of death of the (kind of) famous doctor.
Rolfe
Adult human female
THIS.
The route he intended to take was barely a mile. Granted, it was deemed inadvisable to try it in the heat of the day, and all the more so because he had only arrived from England the previous day and wasn't acclimatised to the heat, and there was an actual heat warning in force. Nevertheless it wasn't a crazy risk. Subsequent events demonstrate that if he hadn't missed the turning on the path he'd have made it OK, even if he was a bit frayed around the edges.
What killed him was missing that turning, which led him to a much harder route with a severe climb. It wasn't actually longer (unless of course he was casting around to try to find his way) but it was absolutely punishing compared to the regular path he missed. He took an hour and 45 minutes to get to Agia Marina that way, whereas the regular path should have taken about half an hour. No wonder he didn't make it. On Saturday, looking at the map, I didn't expect him to get to the top of the hill. He did, though, and he managed the steep climb down to the bay. It's horribly ironic that he collapsed so close to the entrance to the beach compound without being seen, but I fail to see where there's any mystery.
It seems likely his children had it figured out on Saturday, given where they were searching. His wife's statement on Sunday makes it clear she understands exactly what happened. She may not even realise that a lot of media outlets were still printing confusing speculative nonsense.
It seems tragically mundane to me. Fit guy in his sixties goes on a walk which is a bit inadvisable but which was probably well within his capabilities. Misses the path and ends up doing a very much more severe route than he intended, in very high temperatures he was not acclimatised to. Collapses and dies only yards from his destination. Tragic. Heartbreaking. But hardly a mystery.
Pixel42
Schrödinger's cat
I only just saw this thread, but I followed the tragic story as it unfolded. Rolfe clearly has the right of it.
I'd like to add, as someone who has experienced two TGAs, that it's unlikely to be a contributing factor even if it did indeed occur. It's not a cognitive impairment in the sense usually meant, all that happens is that you stop storing what you are experiencing in your memory. I lost 18 hours during the first one; the last thing I remember is eating dinner in the hotel restaurant on the last evening of a short break in Windsor, the next thing I remember I'm sitting at home checking my emails at about 4 pm the next day. During those missing hours I presumably went back to my room, slept, woke, packed, ate breakfast in the hotel, waited in reception for my taxi, travelled for a couple of hours and correctly directed the driver to my home. All without (as far as I was able to establish afterwards) unduly alarming anyone, though a couple of people were apparently a bit concerned that I didn't seem quite myself. So I don't think we can blame a TGA for what happened to poor Dr Moseley.
I'd like to add, as someone who has experienced two TGAs, that it's unlikely to be a contributing factor even if it did indeed occur. It's not a cognitive impairment in the sense usually meant, all that happens is that you stop storing what you are experiencing in your memory. I lost 18 hours during the first one; the last thing I remember is eating dinner in the hotel restaurant on the last evening of a short break in Windsor, the next thing I remember I'm sitting at home checking my emails at about 4 pm the next day. During those missing hours I presumably went back to my room, slept, woke, packed, ate breakfast in the hotel, waited in reception for my taxi, travelled for a couple of hours and correctly directed the driver to my home. All without (as far as I was able to establish afterwards) unduly alarming anyone, though a couple of people were apparently a bit concerned that I didn't seem quite myself. So I don't think we can blame a TGA for what happened to poor Dr Moseley.