Did Nate Silver nail it or what?

pgwenthold said:
That could happen if the polls are systematically biased, yes. But the criticisms being leveled are not making that argument. They are basing their complaints that it was too unlikely to get them all right, even (especially?) assuming that each state was independent and random.
Of course, the criticism is that, according to Silver, the chance of him getting ALL the states right should have been less than 10%. However, aside from something with a 10% chance happening is not a stretch, the biggest factor in that 10% is Florida, which basically cuts the chance in half.
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I addressed this in post #54. They are not independent.
 
respect said:
Yes, some of them have egg on their face. Nonetheless, statisticians sometimes make mistakes. My point is that if Silver had made a mistake it would not have been a triumph of ideology over math.
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My post was just a glib way of saying that the guy who used math won out over the guys who didn't. No broader statements about math were to be inferred.
 
Brainster said:
Okay, so Silver was right and I was wrong. It strikes me, however, that there is a risk to accepting Silver, and it is higher on the liberal side than it is on the conservative side. Suppose in 2016, Silver's method projects a pretty easy win for the GOP. Isn't there a strong risk that becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, as liberals, dispirited by Silver's projections, stay home from the polls in droves?

What would have been Silver's projection in 2000 and 2004? He surely would have had Bush as the favorite in both years, right? Wouldn't that have made Democrats less likely to go out to the polls? While it would not have made a difference in the presidential race, it might have had major consequences in the down-ticket contests. Remember, this was the criticism that the Democrats leveled against the networks in 1980; that by declaring the election (and many states) for Reagan before the polls had even closed, they artificially deflated turnout, hurting Democratic candidates for lower offices.
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I don't think that pundits or pollsters can make self-fulfilling prophecies. Dick Morris wasn't able to make his prophecy come true. Neither could Karl Rove, Unskewed Polls, Rasmussen or Gallup. Does Nate Silver have some magic power that other pundits or pollsters don't have? No, I don't think he can change what's going to happen any more than a meteorologist can make it rain or make it not rain. All he can do is predict whether it will rain or not.
 
Guybrush Threepwood said:
I don't get that? Is it some complex meta joke or does the xkcd guy just not understand frequentist statistics?
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He's mocking all the people who keep insisting Nate was 'wrong' because he actually got everything right, and it was very unlikely that he would do so if you roll all the individual state probabilities of accuracy together.
 
johnny karate said:
I was speaking of the application of math, not the validity of it. (I would hate to think that conservatives were so far gone they denied math altogether.)
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While I "would" (read: do) hate to think that as well, in many cases it's true. People who deny evolution are also denying math; they just don't understand enough about either subject to realize that they are.
 
With Florida being conceded by Romney, Nate Silver is 51-for-51 in 2012. He's missed exactly one state in two elections.
 
Puppycow said:
There's more counting to do before we know what the final popular vote will be, but that too looks like it will be very close to Nate's forecast.
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SkepticalDrew said:
What's really surprising to me is how close the popular vote is turning out to his prediction. Many pundits were still touting the electoral college/popular vote split last night. Nate wasn't buying it.
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Regarding Nate's prediction on the popular vote vs. actual results now that most of the counting seems to be done:

Nate's prediction: O 50.8%, R 48.3%
Actual results: O 50.6%, R 47.9%

So, very close there too. Anyone remember how close he got in 2008 on the popular vote?
 
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2008

Nate's prediction: O 52.3%, R 46.2%
Actual results: O 52.9%, R 45.7%

Also note that there are still millions of votes outstanding so we don't know the real result for 2012 yet.
 
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Apologies if this has already been posted, it's pretty good.:)

Top 25 Nate Silver Facts


Nate Silver threw a grenade and killed 50 people, then it exploded.

Nate Silver can delete the Recycling Bin.

Nate Silver once got bit by a rattle snake. After three days of pain and agony... the rattle snake died.
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The "drunk Nate Silver" ones are better, because they're original. These are mostly just recycled Chuck Norris jokes.
 
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