Merged Derren Brown - predicting lottery numbers

If DB had considered most of the likely solutions
eg Split screen - then provided evidence (faked or not) that would make them much less likely (eg showing a different apparently simultaneous view of the draw/ball reveal) or a live audience in the studio - then that would have made it more intriguing, rather than the mumbo jumbo he did show.

Mathematicians opinions on the nonsense that was the numbers business in the Reveal prog , as if it needed saying:

Professor of Pure Mathematics at University of Oxford Roger Heath-Brown said: 'This is not a good strategy for picking the lottery. But I can understand why some people might think it is a plausible strategy.


'Mathematically it is complete rubbish. It is a bluff on his part. He is doing it some other way that is clear. But he is trying to produce what looks like a plausible rationale for producing numbers.'
The academic said it was wrong to draw a comparison with the ox experiment as people in that case had some evidence to go on.
David Spiegelhalter, professor of public understanding of risk at University of Cambridge said: 'There is a difference between guessing between the weight of a cake compared with guessing lottery balls, which is unguessable.

'That is just a clear wind-up and complete nonsense. There is absolutely no way he did that - he can't get away with that as a serious explanation.'

Dr Darrell Rowbottom, who works in the faculty of philosophy at University of Oxford
'The probability of success doesn't change. So we have to conclude that the averaging is irrelevant.'
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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbi...n-illusionists-explanation-lottery-stunt.html
 
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Cuddles said:
So, we're all agreed it was robotic ants?
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AntsBall2.jpg


Closer examination of the balls shows you may be correct!!!! :D
 
I think he had selected the numbers and then programmed his improbability drive to shift all of reality arround those numbers until the universe which permitted that combination to win emerged.
 
joobz said:
I think he had selected the numbers and then programmed his improbability drive to shift all of reality arround those numbers until the universe which permitted that combination to win emerged.
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Well I'm not going to illustrate that one... much too complicated for Illustrator CS2 :D
 
I...just...can't...resist :o

Rrose Selavy said:
If DB had considered most of the likely solutions
eg Split screen - then provided evidence (faked or not) that would make them much less likely (eg showing a different apparently simultaneous view of the draw/ball reveal) or a live audience in the studio - then that would have made it more intriguing, rather than the mumbo jumbo he did show.

Mathematicians opinions on the nonsense that was the numbers business in the Reveal prog , as if it needed saying:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbi...n-illusionists-explanation-lottery-stunt.html
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I have to wonder why was anyone expecting anything else but misdirection from the main show?

The only way to somehow debunk Derren here (or in his other shows) would be to show that the group of 24 participants were stooges or actors. Nothing else just doesn't matter in this context.
 
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Don't you think it's a little hard to say what one expects from a magic show? Doesn't the enjoyment come from the unexpected and unimaginable? I think the problem was that he gave people the same crap they've seen before, and that's what made it so horribly lame.
 
Hey folks, the split screen method can be done with a $200 video editor. I used to do it at County Board meetings to amuse myself when recording was paused during recesses. During the meetings? Not so much.

Specially programmed laser printers?!? That's like postulating a surgical crew is in the box to sew the lady back up when she is cut in half.
 
StanUpshaw said:
Don't you think it's a little hard to say what one expects from a magic show? Doesn't the enjoyment come from the unexpected and unimaginable? I think the problem was that he gave people the same crap they've seen before, and that's what made it so horribly lame.
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Hey, people can expect what ever they like, but it's going to be a long wait to see a sumo wrestler compete in a high jump contest. When it comes to the enjoyment, people can easily be disappointed if they expect the wrong things from a performance. He did give people the same stuff he's been giving all these years, and I do not expect a person who has never liked Derren to feel any different about this one. I can however see how people who are not familiar with his act could easily be a bit mislead by it all.
 
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A lottery effect such as DB did, falls into the "too perfect" theory in magic. But I doubt he didn't know this and teh Scooby Doo ish explanation is part of a bigger reveal at the end of the series.
 
Kuko 4000 said:
I...just...can't...resist :o




I have to wonder why was anyone expecting anything else but misdirection from the main show?

The only way to somehow debunk Derren here (or in his other shows) would be to show that the group of 24 participants were stooges or actors. Nothing else just doesn't matter in this context.
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I wasn't expecting more than misdirection but I wasn't entertained either. I was bored. And I've seen a lot of his stuff from his first TV appearances when I thought he was amazing. As I've said showing the scene from another angle at least would have been another form of misdirection. So I don't quite get your point.
 
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Rrose Selavy said:
I wasn't expecting more than misdirection but I wasn't entertained either. I was bored. And I've seen a lot of his stuff from his first TV appearances when I thought he was amazing. As I've said showing the scene from another angle at least would have been another form of misdirection. So I don't quite get your point.
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The Daily Mail article you linked to had professors commenting that the fake explanation was fake. The article was trying to "debunk" Derren's fake explanation, when the only way to debunk Derren is to show that the people who are being manipulated inside the show are actors or stooges. I'm sure you know what I mean, but for example, if someone could show that the lady who did well in the Poker Tournament was an actor, or if the guy who stamped the cups in the latest Event was in on the trick, etc.

Can I just ask, were you bored because it was the same ol' Derren once again, or were you bored because you knew that the Wisdom of the Crowds thing wasn't the real explanation for the lottery prediction?
 
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Kuko 4000 said:
The Daily Mail article you linked to had professors commenting that the fake explanation was fake. The article was trying to "debunk" Derren's fake explanation, when the only way to debunk Derren is to show that the people who are being manipulated inside the show are actors or stooges. I'm sure you know what I mean, but for example, if someone could show that the lady who did well in the Poker Tournament was an actor, or if the guy who stamped the cups in the latest Event was in on the trick, etc.

Can I just ask, were you bored because it was the same ol' Derren once again, or were you bored because you knew that the Wisdom of the Crowds thing wasn't the real explanation for the lottery prediction?
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Personally, I was disappointed because the Wisdom of Crowds explanation given was an obviously wrong one. It was the equivalent of him claiming the numbers were told to him by a magic cheese slice.

Which led me to believe that the obvious split screen trick was therefore the way he did it, a trick that required absolutely no skill from Derren to execute.

You could have had Lindsay Lohan perform that trick and it would still have worked.

I enjoy watching DB as usually either I can't work out how he did it, or I can know enough about the trick to appreciate how he is doing it roughly but either can't work out the last step or realise that the last step is a very skilful sleight of hand or something.

If he's just going to use camera tricks then I'd rather watch a big budget action movie - the effects in those are much better.
 
Trust me there has to be a bigger effect coming ,which is why Derren used camera tricks-if he did I can't see the flaws in video people have mentioned but thats not to say they arent there. I doubt a magician of Derren's stature would use video efffects soelly to achieve a trick.
Time will tell.
 
Just had a great chat with a friend of mine about the possible payoff - the moral, if you will - of the Lottery Prediction (and the Events in general).

Think about the tricks in Friday's show - the mouse trick and the knife trick. Whilst they were, essentially, fairly basic force-selection tricks, the lesson he used them to present was never to trust what you're told. There was no mouse, there was no knife.

Then consider the Wisdom of the Crowds, and the "good vibes" spin on Penney's Game. The basic effects were real, but the spin he put on them distorted them beyond all recognition. There was a kernel of truth, but a whole lot of falsehood. The lesson here is independently verify things you're told.

And so, the lottery: Derren "explained how he did it". Except, of course, he didn't. That's the point. The whole absurdity of the explanation is part of the larger picture.

I am now convinced that the whole point of The Events is the same as The System was - to encourage critical thinking. We're all scratching our heads a little after the lottery show, but the clues all seem to be there - I'm sure that the last show of The Events will pay off into a lesson in scepticism.
 
i was bothered about his transition between the TV and the balls used for demonstrating the prediction. He had to do a strange side stepy thing, as though the TV and the balls were placed a little to close together and or off set in a weird way.

From a stage craft setup, I'd doubt you would ever do that for a show. Rather you'd line them up, so it'd be an easy walk from the TV to the balls. I get the feeling that that transition was intentional. I wonder if it makes it easier to hide a split screen in the way they blocked the set and that is why they arranged the props as they did.
 
Forthcoming events:

- How to Control the Nation (sticking people to their sofas via subliminal advertising)
- How to Be a Psychic Spy (about the "psychic arms race between Russia and the West")
- How to take down a casino.

Apparently, there's a "twist".

http://vimeo.com/6457581

The other videos on that page are interesting too -- lots of clues in there, perhaps? They include reversing, split screens, website addresses and other things....
 
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