Merged Derren Brown - predicting lottery numbers

Southwind17 said:
When I watch the Youtube clip the left-most ball doesn't "jump" or is "suddenly raised". It appears to "rise", i.e. there appears to be movement over around a half-second period. This might just be how it seems, and it might be sudden, but if there's movement then that blows the freeze screen theory. Who thinks the ball jumps and who thinks it moves? Watch the 2:00 to 2:05 section 5 or 6 times before deciding. I agree that the lack of audience is hard to explain though.
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If it's there, make a GIF and show us.
 
StanUpshaw said:
If it's there, make a GIF and show us.
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What, exactly, are you asking for here? Isn't a GIF a single image, like a JPEG? What would that tell you about possible movement of the ball?

Another thing (I think somone's mentioned it), it seems strange that DB covers his mouth and stops speaking for the entire duration of the draw, then forms a fist infront of his mouth at the end. Is it possible he has something in his mouth to assist the trick? Seems highly improbable, but considering he's been rabbiting constantly then stops completely for so long ... Probably just doing it for dramatic effect, I'd be inclined to conclude.
 
Ambrosia said:
It's to obscure that painted black line behind the stand directly above the balls (which aren't shown to even be balls until after the reveal) - black line being used to line up the new balls in rack whilst a portion or all of the shot is frozen, or to mark off where a freeze is to be dropped into the shot to obscure the from above accomplice.
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Why would you have a black line on the wall for that? Couldn't the monitors that the team use do it digitally?

I would not be surprised to find many false hints in this trick.
 
Southwind17 said:
What, exactly, are you asking for here? Isn't a GIF a single image, like a JPEG? What would that tell you about possible movement of the ball?

Another thing (I think somone's mentioned it), it seems strange that DB covers his mouth and stops speaking for the entire duration of the draw, then forms a fist infront of his mouth at the end. Is it possible he has something in his mouth to assist the trick? Seems highly improbable, but considering he's been rabbiting constantly then stops completely for so long ... Probably just doing it for dramatic effect, I'd be inclined to conclude.
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He is asking you to combine the pics together for us to see the movement. I think db2431 did a GIF like that some pages ago, but I'm not sure if they were talking about the same moment, here you are Stan:

787c48641030d3bdc01997fe9b97dc52c15f07f8.gif




The mouth thing could be anything, but that has been his trademark way of being "excited" for years now...


EDIT: I'm not sure why it doesn't show anymore, but here is the url: http://dradis.mirror.waffleimages.com/files/78/787c48641030d3bdc01997fe9b97dc52c15f07f8.gif
 
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Yes, that is what I'm talking about. In that GIF, it shows an immediate jump, not a gradual rise. If he thinks he sees a gradual rise, it should be easy enough to prove.

edit: Waffleimages is a host that only allows its files to be shared on SomethingAwful. Mirror it on Tinypic or something.
 
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Dr Adequate said:
You're too cynical.

That's a real psychological effect. If you ask a sufficiently large number of people to make a numerical estimate of something like jelly beans in a jar or the weight of a cake their average estimate will turn out to be astonishingly accurate.

I was reading about it the other week, I forget where, it was in a book by Richard Wiseman or someone like that.
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Some years ago I read an article on how the US Dept of Defense eventually found one of the subs lost during the Cold War. (Can't remember which one). Many previous attempts had failed; the new guy in charge polled a bunch of experts (I think both Sub warfare experts and oceanic-type experts), giving them the last known position and activity. He charted everyone's best guess on where it ended up, and searched where the "average" was. Voila. Sub was found.
 
On the Magic Cafe in this thread, the poster called NFox is waging a lonely debate stating that the "freezing half the screen" method isn't what happened. He says the parallax gives it away that that isn't the method. He doesn't appear for a few pages, so skip to page 6 or 7 to get his input.

No idea whether he is correct as I've no technical knowledge in this area, but interesting.
 
If he's right then we should be able to see Derren and the stand moving with respect to the brickwork on the wall as the camera moves, I think.
 
I guess the split screen method would be ruled out if someone could show parallax scrolling happening between the time of the first ball and the last ball.
 
I reckon Derren delierately put in a load of red herrings, and tonight's show he will show how all of those things could have been used to create the trick. So he will show us loads of methods by which the trick might have been done, and then not tell us which was the actual one he used. And then he will redo the trick (or a similar one) but in a way that couldn't have possibly been done by any of the methods outlined - leaving us all baffled once again.
 
Just to fill everyone in, the ball seems to rise at the moment Derren says 23, watch it here in high quality, see the difference at about 6:05 - 6:08:



I too would like to think these are red herrings, wouldn't put it past Andy and Derren, would be absolutely brilliant though.
 
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I hope it'll be like Wayne's World with the Scooby Doo ending, and the Thelma and Louise ending... multiple different reveals as Professor Yaffle indicates.

If he's come up with a method that doesn't involve time delays, split screens, trained ants, or tightrope walking kittens, then the man is God and the mods can close down the Religion forum because the issue is settled.
 
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Dam you Derren, instead of doing meaningful work today I am still sitting around scratching my balls head, trying to work out how you did it...

it can't be a screen thats lowered from above, the floor is polished black and reflects well.

It could be a split screen video gimmick, but I'd be very disappointed if it was.

Derren is dressed in black, the TV is black, the floor is black, the balls are white, the base of the ball stand is white.

At one point while DB stands quietly just watching the draw "clever" viewers are either watching the balls on the rack, or are drawn to the screen showing the draw.

During this time DB stands side on to the camera one hand clearly over his mouth. The other hand not visibile, with the card obscuring potentially his other hand reaching behind the TV to.... ????

Maybe thats where he is keeping the trained fleas??
 
Garrette said:
He says the parallax gives it away that that isn't the method.
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I don't see parallax, quite the opposite actually (does parallax have an opposite?) All the objects in shot during the lottery draw on the TV regardless of their distance to the back wall appear to retain the same angles as if the camera is not moving but the picture is.
 
Well, the ball moves up after all the numbers are drawn. At that point it could be back to the real live footage again. If not, it could be due to an slow fade or wipe, giving the impression that it is moving.

In any case, the numbers are drawn at this point and the balls probably already replaced. Due to studio lighting they could expand a little, making one of them move up because they are getting "too big" to fit, pushing one up.

Yes, he may or may not have used a different method. However, given the actual setup of the scene, the split & freeze method is the simplest to perform. Clear separation between the left and right side, nothing really produces shadows which could give it away, plenty of time to swap the balls.

If he would redo the trick while he is standing behind the balls, with a real moving camera, each ball on its own stand, turning around each ball directly after it is drawn by turning the stand, that would be more food to think about. But the way it is performed, i'm going with the split & freeze method. Occam's razor and all this.

Greetings,

Chris
 
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