Democratic caucuses and primaries

JoeMorgue said:
There were legit, serious, non-parody thinkpieces leading up to 2016 that someone wrote, had edited, had reviewed, and were published in actual newspapers about how Hillary was gonna turn Texas blue that election.
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Yeah. I certainly didn't expect a bullying, disgusting, lying, cheating, misogynistic, narcissistic turd was going to be elected.
 
Apparently Warren's out now.

I can't say I expect that to do much for Bernie anymore. She's turned so hostile against him lately that the followers she had left were probably not huge fans of his anyway. Remember, little of how people decide to vote is actually about policies; otherwise Bernie would have had the majority all along no matter how many others there were. And even if people did reliably vote for the politician whose policies are the closest to their own, Warren has been no progressive for the last month or two anyway.
 
Gee, I guess there are no real progressives in the Democratic party except for Bernie.....
 
Delvo said:
Remember, little of how people decide to vote is actually about policies; otherwise Bernie would have had the majority all along no matter how many others there were.
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This is literally the most unsupportable statement I've ever read on any skeptic forum since the Skeptic Friends Network was founded like forever ago and my kids were babies.
 
d4m10n said:
Tryna think up a way to bet on Barro's bold prediction.

How about "Over/under for the earliest date upon which only one candidate is still mathematically capable of reaching 1,991 pledged delegates."

What would you say is the most likely date range (point estimate if you want to think like a bookie)?
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After Georgia votes would be my bet. Bernie couldn't take a state east of the Mountain Time Zone except Vermont even with the moderate votes being split. Its over.

ETA: OK, dork that I am I got out a calculator and determined by Georgia is nigh on impossible. I'll say April 28th.
 
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Delvo said:
Apparently Warren's out now.

I can't say I expect that to do much for Bernie anymore. She's turned so hostile against him lately that the followers she had left were probably not huge fans of his anyway.
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It looks like her supporters are currently split almost evenly between Biden/Sanders (with a slight preference for Sanders).

From: https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article240936131.html
A Morning Consult survey suggested that Warren’s supporters may split fairly evenly, with 43 percent saying Sanders was their second choice compared to 36 percent for Biden.

Still interested to see if she endorses Biden or Sanders before the convention (or even if she just stays silent). On one hand, her and Sanders are closer ideologically. On the other hand, Warren is actually a real democrat (i.e. a long term member of the party) and may see value in having the party coalesce around Biden.

Remember, little of how people decide to vote is actually about policies; otherwise Bernie would have had the majority all along no matter how many others there were.
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Uhhhh... no. Just no.

BernieCare (Where private healthcare is outlawed) is probably the least popular alternative. People want expanded coverage, just not to the exclusion of private options.

As for most of his other policies? Well, in many cases there is very little difference between Biden and Sanders.... both would be pro-choice, both want increases in the minimum wage, etc.
 
lobosrul5 said:
How about "Over/under for the earliest date upon which only one candidate is still mathematically capable of reaching 1,991 pledged delegates."
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After Georgia votes would be my bet. Bernie couldn't take a state east of the Mountain Time Zone except Vermont even with the moderate votes being split. Its over.

ETA: OK, dork that I am I got out a calculator and determined by Georgia is nigh on impossible. I'll say April 28th.
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Well, April 28th has approximately 1/3rd of all delegates available in the primaries (including New York and Pennsylvania). So that's a pretty good guess. (After that date, none of the other states will offer more than 100 delegates.)

ETA: My mistake... I think New Jersey comes after April 28 and they have more than 100 seats. But I think my point still stands: so many delegates are awarded by April 28 that it will probably be the time when the contest is decided mathematically.
 
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With our primary officially on Tuesday, we are JUST starting to see some Biden and Bernie ads. But we vote by mail, and have had the ballots for around three weeks. A lot of us probably waited until after Super Tuesday, but voted immediately after. We certainly did. I don't think advertising now is doing much good, unless there are more undecideds than I think.
 
Trebuchet said:
With our primary officially on Tuesday, we are JUST starting to see some Biden and Bernie ads.
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I assume you're talking about broadcast television? I get so many targeted ads on my phone it's sort of silly.

By the way, which way do you guys think the key swing state of Michigan is going to swing tomorrow?
 
d4m10n said:
By the way, which way do you guys think the key swing state of Michigan is going to swing tomorrow?
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Leaning toward Biden. 538 has him winning 73 out of 128 delegates and he gets between 63 and 84 in 80% of their simulations and, the 2016 results not withstanding (and people forget that 538 got a lot of grief for being too bullish for Trump even though they were giving him very slim odds) 538 still seems to be really good at this.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/michigan/
 
FYI the predictions for the remaining Primaries/Caucuses are:

Michigan - Biden
Washington (state) - Sanders
Missouri - Biden
Mississippi - Biden
Idaho - Biden
North Dakota - Biden
Democrats Voting Abroad - Sanders
Northern Marianas (Territory, no EC Votes in General Election) - Biden
Florida - Biden
Illinois - Biden
Ohio - Biden
Arizona - Biden
Georgia - Biden
Puerto Rico (Territory, no EC votes in the General Election) - Biden
Louisiana - Biden
Hawaii - Biden
Alaska - Biden
Wyoming - Biden
Wisconsin - Biden
New York - Biden
Pennsylvania - Biden
Maryland - Biden
Connecticut - Biden
Rhode Island - Biden
Delaware - Biden
Kansas - Biden
Guam (Territory, no EC votes in the general election) - Biden
Indiana - Biden
Nebraska - Biden
West Virginia - Biden
Oregon - Biden
Kentucky - Biden
New Jersey - Biden
New Mexico - Biden
Washington DC - Biden
Montana - Biden
South Dakota - Biden
Virgin Islands (Territory, no EC votes in the general election) - Biden
 
JoeMorgue said:
FYI the predictions for the remaining Primaries/Caucuses are:

Michigan - Biden
Washington (state) - Sanders
Missouri - Biden
Mississippi - Biden
Idaho - Biden
North Dakota - Biden
Democrats Voting Abroad - Sanders
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Biden is looking at blowout delegate victories in MO, MS.

Sanders will do well in WA and abroad, but not so well to avoid slipping further behind tomorrow.

Thus saith the 538. Here endeth the prophecy.
 
d4m10n said:
Thus saith the 538. Here endeth the prophecy.
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Again post-Trump politics being what they are nothing is certain, but so far 538 is batting 1000 at predicting the outcomes of the primaries.

It's not a matter of faith, but they do seem a safe bet for most likely scenarios.
 
JoeMorgue said:
FYI the predictions for the remaining Primaries/Caucuses are:

Michigan - Biden
Washington (state) - Sanders
Missouri - Biden
Mississippi - Biden
Idaho - Biden
North Dakota - Biden
Democrats Voting Abroad - Sanders
Northern Marianas (Territory, no EC Votes in General Election) - Biden
Florida - Biden
Illinois - Biden
Ohio - Biden
Arizona - Biden
Georgia - Biden
Puerto Rico (Territory, no EC votes in the General Election) - Biden
Louisiana - Biden
Hawaii - Biden
Alaska - Biden
Wyoming - Biden
Wisconsin - Biden
New York - Biden
Pennsylvania - Biden
Maryland - Biden
Connecticut - Biden
Rhode Island - Biden
Delaware - Biden
Kansas - Biden
Guam (Territory, no EC votes in the general election) - Biden
Indiana - Biden
Nebraska - Biden
West Virginia - Biden
Oregon - Biden
Kentucky - Biden
New Jersey - Biden
New Mexico - Biden
Washington DC - Biden
Montana - Biden
South Dakota - Biden
Virgin Islands (Territory, no EC votes in the general election) - Biden
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I would just point out that two weeks ago, all of those Biden states were projected by 538 to go to Sanders.
 
Brainster said:
I would just point out that two weeks ago, all of those Biden states were projected by 538 to go to Sanders.
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Yeah, the forecasts are as of now. But things change in those forecasts, just like the weather forecasts can change depending on new information.

That said, I don’t see much changing in Sanders’s fortunes here on out.
 
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