Democratic caucuses and primaries

Meadmaker said:
It occurs to me that there are only two candidates that, for me, don't have really big negatives. The negatives:.

Trump:. If you have to ask...
Bernie: Really oldsocialist, and doesn't seem like he changed his mind in 50 years, oddly similar to Trump in many ways.
Biden: Really really old seems even older than he really is.
Warren:. Not as socialist as bernie. and kind of seems like she's probably lying about half of it. Not as old as Joe. But enough of each to be bad.
Bloomberg: old guy buying his way in.

That leaves

Buttigieg:. Gay, and only office is mayor of South Bend. Makes me nervous for general election.
Klobuchar:. Practically unknown before election.


So what I'm hoping for is Biden's SC firewall doesn't hold so that Amy and Pete can fight for the middle lane before I have to make up my mind in Michigan.


And in the silver lining department, a lot of Bloomberg's negatives might be positives to some Trump voters. Rich, accused racist, old, New Yorker? What's not to like?
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Other than a few corrections, I generally agree.
 
Meadmaker said:
It occurs to me that there are only two candidates that, for me, don't have really big negatives. The negatives:.

Trump:. If you have to ask...
Bernie: socialist.
Biden: old.
Warren:. Not as socialist as bernie. Not as old as Joe. But enough of each to be bad.
Bloomberg: old guy buying his way in.

That leaves

Buttigieg:. Gay, and only office is mayor of South Bend. Makes me nervous for general election.
Klobuchar:. Practically unknown before election.


So what I'm hoping for is Biden's SC firewall doesn't hold so that Amy and Pete can fight for the middle lane before I have to make up my mind in Michigan.


And in the silver lining department, a lot of Bloomberg's negatives might be positives to some Trump voters. Rich, accused racist, old, New Yorker? What's not to like?
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Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton were practically unknown before the election as well. Both knocked out sitting Republicans.
 
Steyer dropping out. Apparently not.

He has decent numbers in upcoming states and, along with others dropping out, expect polls to change alignment quite a bit heading towards Nevada/South Carolina.

But really, if you have to put out a clarification that you're not dropping out, it might be time to drop out.
 
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Puppycow said:
Bad night for Liz and Joe.
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I think both are toast. They won't drop out, but they should.

No way is Liz going to wrest control of the left wing from Bernie, at least not barring another heart attack. As for Biden, he missed his chance in 2016. Time to put out the torch and leave the island.


Of course, Warren might be running for Vice President.....
 
Meadmaker said:
I think both are toast. They won't drop out, but they should.

No way is Liz going to wrest control of the left wing from Bernie, at least not barring another heart attack. As for Biden, he missed his chance in 2016. Time to put out the torch and leave the island.


Of course, Warren might be running for Vice President.....
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Yeah, a few can play for keeps right now, but several will play as long as they have money to have chips to cash in at convention time.

All this next 5 months is about is building up chips. Who backs who come vote time (with the party able to assert its will on the 2nd vote as a point of leverage, as well) is anybody's guess.

Between now and July 13th, a long slow trickle of data.
 
Looking ahead on the calendar, I see the moderates splitting the vote, leading to a huge win for Bernie on Super Tuesday, just three weeks from now. It's not my preferred outcome, but I don't see any other way forward.

Trump versus McGovern Sanders.

At least, that's my fear.

A lot can happen between now and then, but.....
 
Meadmaker said:
It occurs to me that there are only two candidates that, for me, don't have really big negatives. The negatives:.

Trump:. If you have to ask...
Bernie: socialist.
Biden: old.
Warren:. Not as socialist as bernie. Not as old as Joe. But enough of each to be bad.
Bloomberg: old guy buying his way in.

That leaves

Buttigieg:. Gay, and only office is mayor of South Bend. Makes me nervous for general election.
Klobuchar:. Practically unknown before election.


So what I'm hoping for is Biden's SC firewall doesn't hold so that Amy and Pete can fight for the middle lane before I have to make up my mind in Michigan.


And in the silver lining department, a lot of Bloomberg's negatives might be positives to some Trump voters. Rich, accused racist, old, New Yorker? What's not to like?
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It is funny how nearly everyone thinks Biden is older than Sanders. I mean, on stage in the last debate, he looked like an embalmed mummy. His cultural references are older than mummies.
 
angrysoba said:
It is funny how nearly everyone thinks Biden is older than Sanders. I mean, on stage in the last debate, he looked like an embalmed mummy. His cultural references are older than mummies.
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Nah, I knew Sanders was older, but I was just picking their most prominent negative characteristic.
 
angrysoba said:
Okay. But it is interesting that Biden’s age is a bigger factor than Sanders’ age.
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It's the energy factor. Biden doesn't seem to have it.


Of course, Bernie has had a heart attack. That can't help. Another heart attack or some other health scare would turn his age into a big negative.
 
Got this off of CBS News.

More than 9 in 10 New Hampshire Democratic primary voters are unhappy with the Trump administration, including 81% who are angry. By a factor of almost two to one (62%-34%), voters say they prefer a nominee who can beat President Trump to one they agree with on major issues.
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Interesting. Seems more people around the country just want Trump gone.
 
Bernie's victory doesn't surprise me in NH.

What was surprising to me is how strong Buttigieg has been these last two states. Perhaps I shouldn't be.
 
I'm seeing a lot of headlines reporting NH as a win for Sanders, even though he seems unlikely to net more delegates than the next guy.

Sanders and Buttigieg are expected to be awarded the same share of New Hampshire's 24 delegates: nine each, according to NBC News. Klobuchar is projected to win six.
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Seems weird to call that a victory, rather than a tie, given the stated rules of the overall contest.

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d4m10n said:
I'm seeing a lot of headlines reporting NH as a win for Sanders, even though he seems unlikely to net more delegates than the next guy.

Seems weird to call that a victory, rather than a tie, given the stated rules of the overall contest.

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He can still claim it as a win. And Buttigieg can point out that he ended up with just as many delegates, if indeed that's the final result. There's still more precincts left to report though.
 
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