Counterfactual: Would it have been better if he won in 2020?

[Safe-Keeper]

Just saw a YouTube short asking if it would have been better if he had won in 2020. It argues that we'd be done with him by now, we wouldn't have had January 6th, he wouldn't have claimed the election was rigged, and he wouldn't have had time to get as radicalized as he is now. To me, that's just incredibly naive. There's little reason why Drumpf would willingly let go of the reins, he's been screaming about rigged elections since 2016, the GOP would still be radicalizing around him, and worst of all, the US would've had eight (at least!) consecutive years of mismanagement, with no Democratic term inbetween to pick up the pieces. Contrary to what the GOP was screaming at the top of their lungs in November 2024, the economy was doing great and inflation was at a near-ideal level --it wouldn't have been if Dump had gotten four more years. Not to mention they'd probably invade Iran and back-stab Ukraine four years earlier. Maybe Ukraine would have surrendered by now. Not to mention that America under Drumpf at the onset of covid was catastrophic. Imagine if he had remained at the helm until 2024.

The only argument that resonated with me was that there were still a lot of adults in the room in 2020, they hadn't had four years to throw them all out. But I expect that could have changed really fast.

But I still thought I'd pose the question to you. Would it have been better for America, and the world, if he won in 2020?

 

[Segnosaur]

I guess the big question is, what happens to the congressional elections.

Dems won the house in the 2018 midterms and held it in the 2020 general election. They also won the senate in 2020. If those 2 congressional elections still happened that way, they it definitely would have been better, since a democratic senate could have blocked Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" (as well as a host of bad cabinet nominations.). And since parties that hold power in the white house tend to lose seats in congress in mid-terms, Trump would likely not have had a republican majority after the 2022 mind terms either..

Unfortunately, with the way things worked, under Biden the Republicans regained the house in 2022 (thus disrupting anything Biden wanted to do), and held congress in 2024 (giving republicans control of both the white house and congress, allowing Trump to give tax cuts to millionaires).

 

[The Great Zaganza]

a consecutive Trump term would have meant that the failed decisions of his 1st term would have become obvious in his 2nd term instead of under Biden. That would have definitely cost him the Midterms.
Additionally, his henchmen would have had less time to plot, so DOGE would probably not have happened.
And no matter when Trump left, it was always clear that, at minimum, the US would need 2 consecutive terms of a sane Administration to clean up the very worst of the mess.
Biden's term has been pretty much wasted, if you want to be generous.

It's pure speculation, but I do think, things would have been better.

 

[Segnosaur]

a consecutive Trump term would have meant that the failed decisions of his 1st term would have become obvious in his 2nd term instead of under Biden. That would have definitely cost him the Midterms.

True. It would have been impossible for Republicans to hand-wave away inflation under Trump at the very least. (No more "Biden caused inflation" talk.)

 

[LSSBB]

It would have been better if he hadn't gotten the bone spurs exemption.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

True. It would have been impossible for Republicans to hand-wave away inflation under Trump at the very least. (No more "Biden caused inflation" talk.)

Withdrawal from Afghanistan would have been a disaster.
Guess for the sake of the lives of US soldiers it was a good thing that Biden was President.

 

[Segnosaur]

Withdrawal from Afghanistan would have been a disaster.
Guess for the sake of the lives of US soldiers it was a good thing that Biden was President.

I don't think there would have been any more US casualties if Trump was president. (Not necessarily because Trump would have handled it better, but because the Taliban would have not wanted to invite any US response when they were so close to their victory.)

What would have happened is that there would have been fewer Afghani refugees during and after the American withdrawal.

 

[P.J. Denyer]

True. It would have been impossible for Republicans to hand-wave away inflation under Trump at the very least. (No more "Biden caused inflation" talk.)

No, they'd have been claiming Obama caused it.