Continuation Part 21: Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito

[Stacyhs]

Some relevant questions to ask yourself:

Given the appearance of a break in, what is the frequency that a) a break in occurred and b) the break in was staged? (Are more "break ins" staged or real?) What does this say about your prior probability? Apply Bayes theorem.

Also, (a) "glass was on top of the clothing." --> You don't say? A rock got thrown through the window and it landed on top of clothing? I am shocked. How does this imply the break in was "staged" at all?

(b) "Nothing was stolen." --> Was money from Meredith's purse not missing? How does this in any way favor "staged" vs. "real" break in, when the alternative hypothesis is that Meredith walked in on Rudy BEFORE he was allowed to steal anything of significance?

(c) --> Probably my favorite one. Clothes could have just as likely been "thrown around the room" before Rudy even broke in. There is literally no reason to think this implies a staged break in. I mean, how dumb do you have to be to think messy room = break in was staged? It's like they're trying to write an elaborate mystery novel using the dumbest reasoning possible.

Exactly how does one determine if clothes are thrown around "half-heartedly" versus those thrown around "full-heartedly" or "with gusto" or "seriously"?
Is there a checklist for determining this?

 

[analemma]

Yes, someone who has intensively studied criminology for four years is likely to be more knowledgeable than someone who has committed a heinous crime.

Accused by CORRUPT police of committing a crime, and exonerated by the courts of that crime.
Everyone knows about the corrupt and incompetent Italian Police: Now Raffaele can help everyone fill in the blanks in the police corruption and incompetence.
The final result of all the frantic efforts of the guilt crowd has been to create a new hero of the Italian media, one who honorably stood up tall to the corruption and intimidation and is raised even higher every time the Vixens and TJMK nutcases propose increasingly preposterous conspiracy theories trying to support their unsupportable accusations.
BTW, what has Mignini had to say about Raffaeles new found criminal expert status?
This just gets better every day

 

[Stacyhs]

Clothes tossed after break-in should have glass under the clothes or at least not on top. Of course glass sticks to material and we don't know if F caused glass to fall when she checked the room. Also there is little actual proof just anecdotal. The money, credit cards and phones were never in F's room. F did report stolen make-up which the PGP say was to cover Amanda's wound and the PIP say was to cover for her drug stash or something like that.

Filomena testified there was glass both on top and below items which would be consistent with items being picked up allowing glass to fall on top of things, as you mentioned, and then be under when the item is placed back down.

Filomena said her makeup case was missing. We never hear of it again. For all we know, she later found it. She makes no mention of it in her testimony that I could find.

 

[NotEvenWrong]

Clothes tossed after break-in should have glass under the clothes or at least not on top.

How do we know if the clothes were tossed before or after the break in?

 

[acbytesla]

How do we know if the clothes were tossed before or after the break in?

I'm with you on the glass NEW. It proves nothing. It doesn't prove it's a burglary and it doesn't prove it was staged. It is totally meaningless.

 

[toto]

G'day, Blue. Let's go through your list bit by bit. You wrote:

>Your argument is circular.

>She knows that Rudy was there and covered it up because she was guilty
>She is guilty because she covered up for Rudy's presence.

Rudy was there. He was a participant and co-accessory to the murder (which, btw, like Amanda and Raff, Rudy denies). Bruno & Marasca believed Amanda named Patrick, in case one of the neighbours saw Rudy leave the house, were she herself was present. However, it was beyond Bruno & Marasca's remit to fact-find and none of the parties had made this submission. In addition, we will be looking at "what the police knew" as of the time of the murder. Having said that, the PIP's core arguments are themselves circular, "Rudy was there, this proves he did it, but just because Amanda was there, it doesn't mean she did."


>I'm going to go through a scenario for you, but first, let's go through what >the Police knew or suspected prior to the interrogation and make sure we're >in agreement.

>- The Police started out with the belief that the break in was faked because >it was on the 2nd Story

Battistelli, recognised it ws a mise en scene because (a) glass was on top of the clothing (b) "nothing was stolen" and, (c) the clothes had been thrown around half-heartedly. Police see many staged burglary scenes, and they usually indicate (1) an attempt at insurance fraud, or (2) an attempt to cover up another crime and (3) to deflect suspicion.

It wasn't (1) and yes, there was a body behind another door, so Dr Watson, we can surmise (2) the perps are pointing to a random burglar s the perp. Why? Here we come up with (3) who needs to deflect suspicion away? Answer: someone who lived there and/or knew the victim.

OTOH was there a real burglar? Given the clothes were slung around before the window was broken, and that three laptops and gold jewellery were ignored, together with Amanda's rent money, with only the victim's cash, credit cards and phones stolen, we have to ponder whether the burglar had some kind of a grudge against the victim to target her alone. The savagery of the attack on Mez, seemed more than a simple case of a burglar being confronted with a resident, given that the rape scene also looked carefully staged, with the body undressed after death and mounted on a pillow.

As to the outside of the building, there was no spoilage to the foliage below, nor scuff marks on the sheer twelve foot four inch wall leading up to the window. A boulder of twelve inch radius and weighing a hefty nine pounds, or four point four kilograms was found under the chair of the room. From its angle to the broken pane, it appeared to have been thrown whilst the window was open from the inside, as the wooden shutter behind it, has a dent from the boulder thrown from such an angle.

Did the burglar throw the nine-pound boulder up twelve feet four inches from the ground outside, or even from six feet across the car park, with all sorts of traffic and passers by during that busy evening, which would impact with a considerable crash? The PIP say "Rudy threw the boulder first, and then hid behind a bush, to see if anyone stirred indoors and then shinned up the wall later, as he was a superfit basketball player."

Police found no scuff marks on the wall. The window was shuttered, whether locked or not. The shutters would need to be opened before the window could smash freely, for the boulder to end up under the chair. This led Massei to believe any burglar would need to climb up at least twice, once to smash the window and open the shutter, and then again to enter. A boulder of that size could not be carried in a pocket, no matter how superfit a basketball player the burglar. The burglar would then have had to wriggle through a jagged sharp-glassed hole of circa 50cm, about nineteen inches, without fatally wounding oneself in the jugular.

The other factor is that the front door is on ground level and at an angle concealed to passersby and traffic on the street. A professional burglar would have no problem forcing the lock or using a crowbar, police style, having decided no-one was home.

Given the body behind a locked door and the puzzling features of the "burglary", you can see why police began to smell a rat.

>- Once they decided that, they decided that the Killer must have entered >the house through the front door.

>- To have entered through the door, the killer must have had a key or be let >in by someone with a key.

Given the third party was Rudy and he knew the occupants, it is logical to consider whether someone simply invited him in. Rudy is seen approaching the cottage and then going away and coming back later. The cctv appears to show a figure following in a female figure. Rudy himself says he went to get a kebab, having found no-one home. This is corroborated. Amanda and Kokomani were pinged from the same area of town that evening between 16:00 and 18:30.

Downstairs showed signs of disturbance. To get in, a key was hanging inside the upper level front door. Mez and Amanda had access to this key that weekend for Mez to feed the cat and water the plants. Nothing was stolen from downstairs.

>- There was no evidence that Meredith was meeting someone that night to >let them in.

Mez had been up until 5:00am the night before, believed she had a class the next day, was tired out, wanted to do some history textbook reading and go to bed ASAP. It is unlikely she was expecting anyone, and anyway, she was very chatty and would likely have mentioned it to her British friends. If she had arranged a secret rendezvous, there is no motive for rape and murder as it would have been consensual.

>- The only other key holders that were nearby that night were Filomena and >Amanda.


Filomena was away for the weekend with her boyfriend. So there was only Mez and Amanda around.

>- CCTV showed a woman heading to the Cottage shortly before the murder. >This woman was initially believed to be Amanda.

Too grainy to know for sure, but we do know Mez approached circa 20:55 - 21:05 and Amanda was in the Grimana vicinity where she took Patrick's message, circa 20:40. Kokomani claims to have seen Amanda, Rudy and Raff lying in wait behind the bins.

>- CCTV showed a black man heading for the cottage around the time of the >murder

That would have been circa 20:45 the second time and Rudy did not leave until well over an hour and a half later, as the murrder is estimated to have been between 22:10 and 23:00 per Massei.

>- A black man was reported as seen running away from the area of the >crime scene

That was circa 22:30. Someone called Formica, who later said it was not Rudy and the man North African (Arabic) in appearance.

>- Amanda had a black boss and was seen speaking to him shortly after the >murder

Amanda chatted to Patrick in the town centre. Police were surveilling him.


>- Amanda and her black boss exchanged text messages on the night of the >murder shortly before it occurred.

That was Patrick. He sent a text at 20:17 which Amanda read at Grimana circa 20:40. They did not speak. Amanda deleted Patrick's text. Both Amanda and Raff switched off their phones between 20:45 and 21:00.

>- Amanda had been acting "strange" in the days after the murder.

Amanda tore out the pages of her diary for the days just before the murder. She had been drawing out circa €300 per diem, the sort of spending habit of a drug addict.

>Do you agree that this is a valid list of things that the Police knew on the >night they called Raf in?

Not really, as in any murder case, the first thing police do is routinely investigate the murder scene by a forensic team and do all the usual pathology investigations. They will have been told of Amanda and Raff's deeply offensive and insensitive behaviour at the questura, seen Amanda's email to the world and wondered what she was doing outside the cottage with a mop, claiming to have found the door swinging open, with spatters of blood and yet had a shower. Also that she didn't call the police at all, but rang Mom just before the body was discovered. That Raff rang his sister rather than the police who said the pair were surprised to see them. Raff rang the police circa 12:47 some fifteen minutes after the police arrived at 12:35, which Massei changed to 13:00 for a quiet life.

Was the distance to the car park only 6 feet? ( 1.829 meters) The under 20 USA women's shot put record ( weight of shot put 8.8 pounds) is 17.60 metres.

 

[Grinder]

How do we know if the clothes were tossed before or after the break in?

The window is broken and the glass flies onto the floor. If the burglar then enters and throws the clothes out of drawers or from hangers the glass should by and large be under those clothes and on the floor. The PLE observed that there was glass on top of the clothes, which to them meant the room was tossed and then someone broke the window as in: "let's make it look like a burglary and go through F's stuff" and later deciding the "burglar" would need a way in.

 

[bagels]

It was a really bad choice to stage the break-in 4 meters off the ground that only a very motivated cat burglar could have finessed their way up. But one of AK's numerous miracles was the man who left all the hard forensic evidence at the scene just happened to be criminally connected to 4 meter high climbing rock throwing break-ins. Just some basic good luck that doesn't make any PGP do a double take

 

[NotEvenWrong]

The window is broken and the glass flies onto the floor. If the burglar then enters and throws the clothes out of drawers or from hangers the glass should by and large be under those clothes and on the floor. The PLE observed that there was glass on top of the clothes, which to them meant the room was tossed and then someone broke the window as in: "let's make it look like a burglary and go through F's stuff" and later deciding the "burglar" would need a way in.

Or Filomena wasn't the tidiest of people and she had her clothes on the floor before Rudy threw a rock through the window. So the glass got on top of the clothes. That would explain why the clothes were "half-heartedly" tossed.

As if this is any kind of evidence either way. If this is the reasoning the police used to conclude the break in was staged then loooooooool.

 

[Planigale]

Vixen, thank you for this
http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=35059&d=1460103325
So where was the person standing when they threw the rock? This is important because they would stop the scatter of glass fragments. Getting some on themselves and leaving a lacuna. The direction of throw will determine the spread of the glass. Does the direction of throw suggested explain the distribution of glass fragments? Does it explain why no glass was found outside the building? Why no glass was found in the outer shutter?

 

[Planigale]

Do read the pathologists' reports.

I have done you the courtesy of doing this. I can find no reference to female size bruises.

Now put up or shut up!

If this was evidence presented, reference it.

If you can not then I think it is reasonable to assume you just made this up.

 

[Grinder]

Or Filomena wasn't the tidiest of people and she had her clothes on the floor before Rudy threw a rock through the window. So the glass got on top of the clothes. That would explain why the clothes were "half-heartedly" tossed.

As if this is any kind of evidence either way. If this is the reasoning the police used to conclude the break in was staged then loooooooool.

If the police walked into a scene of a murder and there was a broken window and clothes thrown around the break-in room with glass on top it is certainly an indication the glass was broken after the clothes were thrown on the floor and would make them think the burglary was staged. Add to that the 911 call in which Raf said nothing was taken which he couldn't know (and yes turned out to be wrong) would make it seem even more suspicious.

The burglary at the lawyers' office was similar but according to early PGP comments the kids probably read about it in the paper

I doubt F left the floor covered with clothes and she didn't say that at first and change her story as she did with the shutters.

 

[Vixen]

Vixen, thank you for this
http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=35059&d=1460103325
So where was the person standing when they threw the rock? This is important because they would stop the scatter of glass fragments. Getting some on themselves and leaving a lacuna. The direction of throw will determine the spread of the glass. Does the direction of throw suggested explain the distribution of glass fragments? Does it explain why no glass was found outside the building? Why no glass was found in the outer shutter?

Imagine you were in the room throwing the boulder. You'd jump out of the way pretty sharpish, or move into the corner. Of course, being a dead weight, it was never going to rebound far. A small fragment of the rock broke off. This indicates to me it met some resistance, likely from the shutter.

 

[Vixen]

I have done you the courtesy of doing this. I can find no reference to female size bruises.

Now put up or shut up!

If this was evidence presented, reference it.

If you can not then I think it is reasonable to assume you just made this up.

You are clearly not familiar with the evidence. Even Amanda herself mentions it in her prison diary.

No, it's not reasonable for you to assume "you made this up". Just because you do, with your phony DNA claims that the police DNA analyses are all wrong, Stefanoni incompetent, with your theory, qualifications and experience superior to theirs, which by strange coincidence, exonerates your darlings.

 

[Vixen]

Was the distance to the car park only 6 feet? ( 1.829 meters) The under 20 USA women's shot put record ( weight of shot put 8.8 pounds) is 17.60 metres.

The issue isn't whether it's possible, but whether it's feasible or even likely.

For a start, the thrower would need to somehow get the shutters out of the way. A person from outside couldn't tell whether they are locked or not, so throwing a heavy stone won't necessarily displace it. Even if it did, there is still the problem of getting in. Whoever threw it from the car park, would have to know that the back of the house and round the side to under the window, twelve and a quarter feet below was easily accessible by walking around it.

Whilst in the trick PIP video we see the 6'7" professional rock climber vaulting over the railing - and the clip then suddenly fades and he magically appears at the lower window - in reality, the drop over the railings is at least nine feet. It would have been in the dark, with the perp not being able to see if the ground below was even level.

No, it's hardly a shot put. why even Amanda herself could have thrown it from the car park, being a titch, standing on tiptoes, but then she has access to the front door so would not have needed to climb the wall in addition.

 

[LondonJohn]

You are clearly not familiar with the evidence. Even Amanda herself mentions it in her prison diary.

No. Knox makes reference to being told that her fingerprints were found on Kercher's neck. That has nothing whatsoever to do with whether the fingerprints could be (or ever were) shown to have been made by a woman's fingers. Oh and if Knox really were told this, then she was being lied to by the authorities - it's a total certainty that if Knox's fingerprints truly had been found on Kercher's neck, this evidence would have featured extremely prominently in the prosecution case. It didn't feature at all. Ergo Knox's fingerprints were never found on Kercher's neck.

No, it's not reasonable for you to assume "you made this up". Just because you do, with your phony DNA claims that the police DNA analyses are all wrong, Stefanoni incompetent, with your theory, qualifications and experience superior to theirs, which by strange coincidence, exonerates your darlings.

There are so many errors and misrepresentations (and throw in a pejorative and revealing reference to "your darlings") in this short passage. Not to mention the thickly dripping irony........

 

[Vixen]

It was a really bad choice to stage the break-in 4 meters off the ground that only a very motivated cat burglar could have finessed their way up. But one of AK's numerous miracles was the man who left all the hard forensic evidence at the scene just happened to be criminally connected to 4 meter high climbing rock throwing break-ins. Just some basic good luck that doesn't make any PGP do a double take

The lawyers offices was easily accessible from ground level because of the balcony in front. It bears no similarity to Filomena's window. Are you seriously claiming Rudy had a special penchant for second floor windows?

The lawyer burglary involved at least two persons to remove the equipment, someone who knew how to disable the alarm, and the lawyers themselves said they believed it was an inside job and that the perps were after stealing confidential lawyerly data.

Yes, Rudy was caught with a stolen laptop, which he claims he bought at a station. It indicates to me an organised gang was involved and Rudy was probably some minor fence sent out to sell the surplus spoils. There was a tv programme in England about a bunch of professional shoplifters who simply used local small-time villains to go around the pubs selling the stuff off. I think Rudy was in this category, rather than the mastermind.

In addition, Rudy had a small glass breaking hammer in his rucksack when apprehended at the Milan nursery, so he most certainly would not be using a theatrical rock were he the burglar of via Pergola 7.

He would have no way of knowing whether the inner window was locked or not, so the twelve foot four climb would be a huge risk, as going up is easier than coming down, and would be in danger of serious injury. Using a large rock suggests a rookie burglar who had the idea of making a big hole in the window to climb through, again highly risky, and doesn't suggest a professional burglar.

A pro would put the lightweight aluminium glass breaking hammer in his or her pocket, not a boulder weighing nine pounds. He or she would then appraise where the window lock is situated and gently break the glass around the lock, with a low level tinkling sound, rather than a huge crash of shattering panes and wood frame for all the neighbourhood to hear, insert the hand to open the lock or pull up the latch and enter by that means. Making a colossal 50 cm hole indicates a complete amateur and a foolhardy one at that, so by your own criterion, not Rudy.

By some miracle, we see Amanda had herself staged a burglary herself in the past, so certainly knew of the phenomena.

Anyway, as you can see from the police photo, the foliage below the window remained completely undisturbed.

Perhaps Rudy the miracle burglar has levitation powers, too.

 

[Vixen]

Some relevant questions to ask yourself:

Given the appearance of a break in, what is the frequency that a) a break in occurred and b) the break in was staged? (Are more "break ins" staged or real?) What does this say about your prior probability? Apply Bayes theorem.

Also, (a) "glass was on top of the clothing." --> You don't say? A rock got thrown through the window and it landed on top of clothing? I am shocked. How does this imply the break in was "staged" at all?

(b) "Nothing was stolen." --> Was money from Meredith's purse not missing? How does this in any way favor "staged" vs. "real" break in, when the alternative hypothesis is that Meredith walked in on Rudy BEFORE he was allowed to steal anything of significance?

(c) "The clothes had been thrown around half-heartedly" --> Probably my favorite one. Clothes could have just as likely been "thrown around the room" before Rudy even broke in. There is literally no reason to think this implies a staged break in. I mean, how dumb do you have to be to think messy room = break in was staged? It's like they're trying to write an elaborate mystery novel using the dumbest reasoning possible.

Burglars know what they are after. They aim to be in and out of a property as fast as possible. Professional means, effective, efficient and fast.

Therefore, a true burglar will systematically pull out all the drawers looking for hidden assets, they will look in the back of wardrobes, the top of wardrobes and in suitcases.

Detectives at the Kercher scene noted that a few of Filomena's clothes had been half-heartedly thrown about, with no particular aim, as her laptop was untouched and her gold jewellery undisturbed. A drawer in Laura's room hung open for theatrical effect.

We know the burglary happened after the murder, for the bits of paper scattered around the scene (one of which in Filomena's room had Amanda's shoeprint) included several scattered on top of the duvet that covered the body. As the burglary happened after the murder, we know it must have been Amanda or Raff that left the glass shard, from Filomena's window, in the murder room, as Rudy's shoeprints show him running straight out of the front door. There is no trace of Rudy in Filomena's room.

In addition, a mixed sample of Amanda's DNA and Mez' blood trails into Filomena's room.

 

[Annella]

Amanda Knox Police Slander case.....

I am the bearer of great news! ( sorry to interrupt your flow Vixen)

The motivation report re the police slander charge has been released and the article link and translation below, explains enough that we can see it must be painful reading for all concerned in Perugia.

https://goo.gl/8Hbgmc

 

[bagels]

I am the bearer of great news! ( sorry to interrupt your flow Vixen)

The motivation report re the police slander charge has been released and the article link and translation below, explains enough that we can see it must be painful reading for all concerned in Perugia.

https://goo.gl/8Hbgmc

Looks like Amanda has more judges on the mafia payroll.