Continuation Part 20: Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito

[bagels]

Vixen try to imagine what you would think if Amanda's alibi depended on a cell tower being used at a specific location for the first and only time in the entire call logs.

 

[Vixen]

Interesting theory. Any idea why Raffaele gave his account on the 2nd of November that
a. Filomena was at her boyfriend's and
b. He instructed Knox to call Filomena at the cottage when he saw all the bloodstains - a version in repeats in his Italian memoir.
What I think you are dying to know - if I think Knox was talking to the postal police on Filomena's phone.....who did she call just after trying Meredith's one and only phone - the socalled English phone?

Well it is obvious isn't it? She was calling Rudy Guede.
Luca Altieri gave testimony about a yellow post-it note with phone numbers on it

Filomena saw that and asked who it was. Knox said that's Guede's number...and for sure he didn't have anything to do with this murder. And Filomena replies with: say that was Meredith's Italian phone and I will get my "Monster of Florence/Narducci" lawyers to fix up the postal police side.

Then when Rudy Guede was arrested in Milan on the 4th or 5th of November (later moved back to the 27th of October), one of things the police had to do, besides sticking a kitchen knife and a laptop in his backpack, was take away his phone...the famous Meredith's Italian phone.

It is all very easy to work out once you understand the Italian mentality

As a matter of fact, phone records show Amanda called Filomena at 12:11 from Raff's flat, not at the cottage as Amanda misrepresented.

 

[bagels]

As a matter of fact, phone records show Amanda called Filomena at 12:11 from Raff's flat, not at the cottage as Amanda misrepresented.

The earliest reports are when memories are freshest:

"Once back at my boyfriend’s house..I immediately told my boyfriend of the strange things I had found at my house and he
suggested I call one of the girls. In fact I first telephoned Filomena."

 

[bagels]

The discussion about the digestion and students is so BORING.

Let's try to figure out what Guede was doing for those missing 40 minutes

 

[Grinder]

The meal was said to be at 6:30 latest by the birdies. The issue with digestion ISN'T emptying of the stomach which normally takes 2 to 5 hours depending on type and volume of food eaten. The issue is that the stomach starts to churn the food as soon as some is eaten. The clock starts with the first bite. T-lag is the term for how long it takes for the churned food (chyme) to begin to move to the top of the small intestine (duodenum). Many studies have been done. It isn't easy to do but the consensus is that 3 hours is the very outer limit for t-lag. If the birdies were wrong and the meal started at 7 TOD would be latest at 10.

As Massei stated often it isn't just the science but the whole picture. The whole picture is that her phone activity starting at 9:58 indicates she no longer was in control of the phone and most likely dead. There is nothing to indicate she was alive past 10:13 for sure.

Most people in most situations would have half the stomach empty by 9 when she arrived home BEFORE the stress.

 

[Bill Williams]

Bill, the claim of the PIP is that as Mez had eaten by circa 17:00, the contents of her meal should have moved into her duedenom within two hours. We are told to take it for granted her complete meal was still sitting in her stomach completely, or almost completely, undigested during the autopsy and therefore she must have been dead by at the latest 21:30.

However, Lalli and the other pathologist experts did not come to that conclusion. Lalli gave a time frame of any time up to 04:00 for time of death 2nd November, and calculated a median time of circa 10:30 IIRC and Massei determined that based on eye witness and other evidence, time of death was circa 23:00.

Your group claims it was 21:00-21:30 because you have a belief this exonerates Raff and Amanda, whom you claim have an alibi for that time, in that they were watching a "sweet romantic comedy" 'Amélie'. This is poor reasoning, as having the film running doesn't prove they were there watching it. In addition, there are multiple other factors that determine TOD, for example, floor temperature, heating, fabric coverings and underlays, wind factor, body weight, etc, etc.

It is a sad act of legerdemain to pretend it is proven the TOD is 21:00 to 21:30, when that is far from true.

You are the king of factoid.

And in rebuttal to all this you advance a theory of a "dinner-game gone wrong." Hoots!

 

[Mike1711]

Ever since I learned that in Italy, defense experts are allowed to blatantly lie with impunity (cf Vinci; Vecchiotti & Conti) I am extremely wary of accepting anything the defense experts say as factual.

The figure of 99% was simply plucked out of the air and Pellero corrects the barrister by stating the margin is more like 3%. These are all heuristic estimates, not based on any actual data analysis. In any case, persons were heard running off at about 22:30, leaving Rudy alone in the cottage applying tourniquets (three blood soaked towels were found, as he stated).

Therefore Massei was correct to adduce the two phones were still at the cottage 22:13 as of the time the call came through and was aborted by human hand.

What utter drivel.

A) An expert in any field is governed by the body of that field. Lying experts would be struck off the role or at least censured.
B) If this were so defence experts for defence would lack court credibility which would infringe on the right of the accused to a fair trial.
C) Courts (should) take the evidence of experts very seriously. Lives are at stake.
D) So many more....

 

[Bill Williams]

Nonsense, I am citing myself.

One tends to stop reading when one reads this. This was my point. You claimed things, and apparently even from your own admission, they are from your imagination. Hoots!

 

[bagels]

How can you people believe Meredith's phones were in her apartment at 22:00 AND that she was dead by 21:30? These are contradictory facts. They defy each other. Please explain how you can hold these two beliefs at the same time.

And let's forget about Vixen and the students for now. It's a totally uninteresting red herring conversation that exists only because eight years ago a couple idiot cops beat a statement out of a clueless airheaded girl.

Let's focus on the actual crime and what actually happened. Please!

 

[query grind]

One tends to stop reading when one reads this. This was my point. You claimed things, and apparently even from your own admission, they are from your imagination. Hoots!

How many times do we have to go through this? Neither of us have standing in this case and I am not trying to convince you of anything.

The only person who has standing in this case is Amanda Knox. My only purpose is to show that if she does want to break her silence on that night (given that both Sollecito and the Supreme Court have declared her a liar), that there is plenty of dynamite lying around that she can use.

After all....what did she say immediately after her acquittal?

I will do everything I can to pay forward all everyone has done for me......I will do this because I know how a wrongful conviction can destroy one’s life, and because we best honor crime victims by ensuring that the actual perpetrators are brought to justice.

To everyone who has spoken out on my behalf, from Seattle to Rome: Thank you. I look forward to making you proud for having supported me and my family.

 

[LondonJohn]

The meal was said to be at 6:30 latest by the birdies. The issue with digestion ISN'T emptying of the stomach which normally takes 2 to 5 hours depending on type and volume of food eaten. The issue is that the stomach starts to churn the food as soon as some is eaten. The clock starts with the first bite. T-lag is the term for how long it takes for the churned food (chyme) to begin to move to the top of the small intestine (duodenum). Many studies have been done. It isn't easy to do but the consensus is that 3 hours is the very outer limit for t-lag. If the birdies were wrong and the meal started at 7 TOD would be latest at 10.

As Massei stated often it isn't just the science but the whole picture. The whole picture is that her phone activity starting at 9:58 indicates she no longer was in control of the phone and most likely dead. There is nothing to indicate she was alive past 10:13 for sure.

Most people in most situations would have half the stomach empty by 9 when she arrived home BEFORE the stress.

I completely agree.

And regarding the last sentence: this is the very reason why ToD from stomach contents can be calculated with a lot more accuracy than usual (especially in terms of providing a latest reasonable time of death). Had Kercher not happened to reside at the far end of the bell curve for T(lag), her stomach would already have started emptying into her duodenum (and beyond) by the time she arrived back at the cottage at 9.00pm. If that had been the case, then the autopsy would have found some food matter in her stomach, some in her duodenum, and some further down in the small intestine. And it would then have been empirically impossible to narrow down ToD with anywhere near the same level of accuracy. In fact, the only thing one would have been able to conclude with confidence would be that Kercher had to have died some time before around 11.30pm (otherwise her stomach would have been totally empty at autopsy).

But that wasn't the case here. Kercher still had all of that meal inside her stomach at autopsy. Which means, by definition, that her T(lag) had to have been >= 2.5 hours (since we know she was alive at 9.00pm, some 2.5 hours after starting the meal). And the critical point is that for the small proportion of people with T(lag) >= 2.5 hours, evidence shows that their T(lag) is hugely more likely to fall into the 2.5-3.0hr range than into the > 3.0hr range, that it's almost unheard of to have a T(lag) longer than 3.5 hours, and that it's to all intents impossible for their T(lag) to fall any later than 4 hours.

And when applied to this case, it means that Kercher very likely died between 9.00pm and 9.30pm, that she almost certainly died before 10.00pm, and that there is no way she could have died any later than 10.30pm.

 

[Mike1711]

Interestingly enough in the Oscar Pistorius case Reeva TOD as per stomach contents and expert analysis thereof made Oscar's story a complete lie. Judge Masipa also chose to ignore this expert opinion.

Interesting as well is the SCA (Supreme Court Of Appeal) utterly trashing Judge Masipa's Judgement and then in the final conclusion in the SCA Judgement report the SCA praised her handling of the case. (????)

It is not often realised how courts refrain from criticising colleagues....as with the Bruno/Marasca Judgement.

 

[Mike1711]

How many times do we have to go through this? Neither of us have standing in this case and I am not trying to convince you of anything.
The only person who has standing in this case is Amanda Knox. My only purpose is to show that if she does want to break her silence on that night (given that both Sollecito and the Supreme Court have declared her a liar), that there is plenty of dynamite lying around that she can use.

After all....what did she say immediately after her acquittal?

Then stop posting your opinion.

 

[acbytesla]

Because the defense counsel was careful not to ask him and quickly shut him up as he was about to expand, (as above).

Actually no. They more than were willing for him to expand.

Question: But is the most likely hypothesis that the telephone had left?
Answer: 99 times out of a 100 the cell repeater 30064 would have been chosen as the repeater serving the points measured in Sant’Angelo Park, there exists a residual possibility in Meredith’s house that could be one, two or three per cent.
Question: It’s not possible to objectively say that the cell repeater 30064 is incompatible with via della Pergola, on the basis of these calculations which take into account the C2 factor, one can say that it is more likely that it was in Sant’Angelo Park, as a probability it’s about 99%?

Answer: Look the probability can be measured in these terms and what I can tell you is that at Sant’Angelo Park, the difference with the next nearest cell repeater is considerable, really considerable, so it would have used this repeater and wouldn’t have searched for another. This also because obviously I have taken into account the results of the measurements that were obtained by the Procura and this certainly permits me to Question that the repeater 30064 was incompatible with via Sperandio, which emerged from the other side.
Question: Are there any other clarifications that you’d like to make now?
Answer: No.

 

[Bill Williams]

How many times do we have to go through this? Neither of us have standing in this case and I am not trying to convince you of anything.

The only person who has standing in this case is Amanda Knox. My only purpose is to show that if she does want to break her silence on that night (given that both Sollecito and the Supreme Court have declared her a liar), that there is plenty of dynamite lying around that she can use.

After all....what did she say immediately after her acquittal?

Nice bait and switch.

The calunnia charge does not relate to "on that night." It relates to 4 nights later, at the interrogation.

Your premise is flawed. You've set up this mythical situation where Knox "knows something she's not telling us about the night of Nov 1," and that "Sollecito (has) declared her a liar."

Knox has written a book and has answers unlimited questions in media, including with Chris Cuomo on CNN who put every guilter-like question to her. His evaluation after that is that she was framed by the Perugians. Sollecito has never called her a liar. But I suppose that since you will cite yourself as the authority here, it doesn't matter that he actually has never done that.

You can waste all our time by posting your opinions and strawman arguments, citing only yourself as a source..... I suppose.

 

[bagels]

I managed to find a post at IIP that sees the trouble caused by the missing 40 minutes. This is his theory:

Since this thread concerns what really happened to MK, it is probably the right place to share with you a brainchild of mine.

I'm not so acquainted with details as for example geebee2 (and others, of course) but what struck me is that Meredith came home at about 21.05 and that the "strange" failed phone calls indicating that she wasn't anymore in control of her phone happen around 22.00 and at 22.13 there is a connection which according to Massei happens with the phone still at Via della Pergola (even if this is debatable).

Now, if you surmise that not much time passed before Meredith discovered Rudy (or Rudy approached her), let's say 10 minutes, you have a confrontation starting at 21.15 and a dead Meredith at 21.25-21.30 at the latest.

While it is possible that Rudy remained at the cottage for at least 40 minutes without a clear idea about what to do, I think more probable that in such a scenario he would be out of the house by 21.45 and so it would be a problem to explain the 22.13 call unless you disagree with Massei and hypothesize that the cell phone was already away from the cottage.

But there is another scenario: the confrontation doesn't escalate immediately in an aggression and Meredith tries to talk with Rudy, or maybe Rudy tries to calm down Meredith and convince her that he is doing nothing bad (at the kindergarten in Milan he did something similar) and their "negotiation" goes on for about 35-40 minutes, let's say from 21.15 to 21.50-55, when for one reason or another there is a catastrophic evolution and the murder of Meredith.
Now Rudy is more or less dumbfound...he acts in a state of confusion and after having summarily cleaned himself, he meddles with the phone (the "missed" calls at 21.58 and 22), then possibly covers Meredith corpse, checks for cash in her purse and so on, spending at the cottage another quarter of an hour until about 22.15, when he leaves.

Details aside what I'd like to point out is that there is the possibility that the "confrontation" between Rudy and Meredith has in truth been a rather long one and that even if we don't know what precipitated the events, there could have been a 35-40 minutes time span when Meredith's life was hanging by a thread.

Unfortunately in the end the thread broke.

This might work a bit better than anything I have so far proposed. It would also seem to corroborate Rudy's fantasy life that he was making out with Meredith on Halloween and had a date with her. The biggest problem is Meredith has to not immediately threaten to call the police which would escalate the situation into the attack right away. But it is an interesting idea.

 

[query grind]

Nice bait and switch.

The calunnia charge does not relate to "on that night." It relates to 4 nights later, at the interrogation.

Your premise is flawed. You've set up this mythical situation where Knox "knows something she's not telling us about the night of Nov 1," and that "Sollecito (has) declared her a liar."

Knox has written a book and has answers unlimited questions in media, including with Chris Cuomo on CNN who put every guilter-like question to her. His evaluation after that is that she was framed by the Perugians. Sollecito has never called her a liar. But I suppose that since you will cite yourself as the authority here, it doesn't matter that he actually has never done that.

You can waste all our time by posting your opinions and strawman arguments, citing only yourself as a source..... I suppose.

I don't use strawmen arguments. I don't think you know what a strawman argument actually is. It is when you purposefully misrepresent another person's claims in order to discredit it. Friends of Amanda do it all the time and it is quite irritating.

I don't bother misrepresenting Friends of Amanda arguments, they generally are so ridiculous that misrepresenting them might be in danger of improving them.

Take this one
http://www.amandaknoxcase.com/cctv-images-of-white-car/

Friends of Amanda have taken a random car turning into the carpark and claimed this represents the drug-dealer car Guede says he saw. It is impossible to make this any more absurd than it already is. So why would I engage in a strawman tactic?

As far as Rudy Guede's movements. It is very simple. He turned up for his date with Meredith at 20:30, he went and got a kebab. He met someone at Piazza Grimana and arrived back at the apartment at 20:43. 8 minutes later Kercher turned up and spend the rest of his time with her talking about subjects such as her mother's problems with kidney disease etc.

 

[Bill Williams]

I completely agree.

And regarding the last sentence: this is the very reason why ToD from stomach contents can be calculated with a lot more accuracy than usual (especially in terms of providing a latest reasonable time of death). Had Kercher not happened to reside at the far end of the bell curve for T(lag), her stomach would already have started emptying into her duodenum (and beyond) by the time she arrived back at the cottage at 9.00pm. If that had been the case, then the autopsy would have found some food matter in her stomach, some in her duodenum, and some further down in the small intestine. And it would then have been empirically impossible to narrow down ToD with anywhere near the same level of accuracy. In fact, the only thing one would have been able to conclude with confidence would be that Kercher had to have died some time before around 11.30pm (otherwise her stomach would have been totally empty at autopsy).

But that wasn't the case here. Kercher still had all of that meal inside her stomach at autopsy. Which means, by definition, that her T(lag) had to have been >= 2.5 hours (since we know she was alive at 9.00pm, some 2.5 hours after starting the meal). And the critical point is that for the small proportion of people with T(lag) >= 2.5 hours, evidence shows that their T(lag) is hugely more likely to fall into the 2.5-3.0hr range than into the > 3.0hr range, that it's almost unheard of to have a T(lag) longer than 3.5 hours, and that it's to all intents impossible for their T(lag) to fall any later than 4 hours.

And when applied to this case, it means that Kercher very likely died between 9.00pm and 9.30pm, that she almost certainly died before 10.00pm, and that there is no way she could have died any later than 10.30pm.

Let me guess. You do not subscribe to Vixen's, "dinner-game gone wrong" theory?

 

[Bill Williams]

I don't use strawmen arguments. I don't think you know what a strawman argument actually is. It is when you purposefully misrepresent another person's claims in order to discredit it. Friends of Amanda do it all the time and it is quite irritating.

I don't bother misrepresenting Friends of Amanda arguments, they generally are so ridiculous that misrepresenting them might be in danger of improving them.

Take this one
http://www.amandaknoxcase.com/cctv-images-of-white-car/

Friends of Amanda have taken a random car turning into the carpark and claimed this represents the drug-dealer car Guede says he saw. It is impossible to make this any more absurd than it already is. So why would I engage in a strawman tactic?

As far as Rudy Guede's movements. It is very simple. He turned up for his date with Meredith at 20:30, he went and got a kebab. He met someone at Piazza Grimana and arrived back at the apartment at 20:43. 8 minutes later Kercher turned up and spend the rest of his time with her talking about subjects such as her mother's problems with kidney disease etc.

While trying to teach a lesson on what is or isn't a strawman argument, you bring up that link about FOA saying that car contains a drug-dealer.....

.... which is both a non sequitor as well as a strawman. I've never heard an innocentisti even raise that issue!

So you believe Rudy had a date with Meredith. And neither you nor Rudy are trying to convince anyone that is true.

Why do I feel you're about to play the race card in reply!?

 

[Bill Williams]

I managed to find a post at IIP that sees the trouble caused by the missing 40 minutes. This is his theory:



This might work a bit better than anything I have so far proposed. It would also seem to corroborate Rudy's fantasy life that he was making out with Meredith on Halloween and had a date with her. The biggest problem is Meredith has to not immediately threaten to call the police which would escalate the situation into the attack right away. But it is an interesting idea.

This at least has the advantage of not trampling on known evidence.