Consumer Reports for the Paranormal

jzs said:
Well that is actually very easy to do.

All the texts from the Sherlock Holmes 'Canon' are online.
I guess you buy everything Conan-Doyle tells you?
Ever heard of the Cottingly Fairies? :)
 
Ashles said:
I guess you buy everything Conan-Doyle tells you?
Ever heard of the Cottingly Fairies? :)

Why do you guess that? :)

I like the stories though, and Conan-Doyle as a man from what I've read.
 
jzs said:
Why do you guess that? :)

I like the stories though, and Conan-Doyle as a man from what I've read.
It always struck me as weird that a man who could write "Once you have ruled out the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable must be the truth" could be so deceived by cut out photos.
 
Re: Re: Consumer Reports for the Paranormal

The Bad Astronomer said:
That was my mistake. It actually said (I think) "Got Cult?"

Then I take back what I said. Though I do remember seeing that shirt somewhere on the net, just never knew someone who actually wore it.
 
Ashles said:
It always struck me as weird that a man who could write "Once you have ruled out the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable must be the truth" could be so deceived by cut out photos.

Why? Can't anyone be fooled?
 
Garrette said:
Your failure to recognize it when presented.

I understand that you didn't present any.

It is like I ask you how much people actually spend on Coke. You reply, hey, it is .75 per can.

And? So? So how much do people actually spend on it?

According to your illogic, .75 is the data. Nope. .75 is just a price.
 
Ashles said:
Any comments on the $300 million figure I linked to?

Yeah :) , the comment is is I was responding to garret, not you.

So how was the estimate of the cost of an average call (which is over 7 years old!) obtained? And of that, how much of it didn't help the person getting the advice? One can't implicitly assume that a large cost = large loss. That's not necessarily the case; one would have to demonstrate that.
 
jzs said:
One can't implicitly assume that a large cost = large loss. That's not necessarily the case; one would have to demonstrate that.
That's true - maybe the money came from invisible pixies.:rolleyes:

Your starting to edge into the "I just won't believe it" territory now.
 
Ashles said:
That's true - maybe the money came from invisible pixies.:rolleyes:

Your starting to edge into the "I just won't believe it" territory now.

You didn't rationally explain a thing. :)

Say I (hypothetically) spend $100 on a psychic. Do you necessarily view all of it as harmful?

Why do you do that? :)
 
Ashles said:
Your starting to edge into the "I just won't believe it" territory now.

He is well on his way into the "I am going to ask for evidence, and when I get it, I will ignore it, and instead come up with new conditions, so I won't have to admit that I was wrong" territory.
 
Originally posted by jzs:

I understand that you didn't present any [evidence].
It is like I ask you how much people actually spend on Coke. You reply, hey, it is .75 per can.

And? So? So how much do people actually spend on it?

According to your illogic, .75 is the data. Nope. .75 is just a price.
Oh, my.

I suppose it is possible that you simply have not followed the conversational thread. But I begin to wonder if it is intentional.

Let’s follow the sequence, shall we?

CFLarsen posted this.

Originally posted by CFLarsen:

For every anecdote (usually unverifiable) a believer comes up with, we should counter with another (preferably more), but this time verifiable, anecdote. Names, places, time, references.

I'm not saying that we should replace evidence with anecdotes. There is no substitute for evidence. I'm saying that we can counter the faceless anecdotes with real, verifiable stories of how dangerous paranormal beliefs are.
It is quite clear he is speaking about anecdotes, about specific instances.


Then Luke T wrote this:

Originally posted by Luke T.

What sort of Counter-X would you have to show how harm was done by a psychic reading?
Still referring to an incident, an anecdote, a psychic reading.


CFLarsen again:

Originally posted by CFLarsen:

How about Sylvia Browne dispensing medical advice that can kill people? How about psychic detectives who claim to be able to find dead or missing relatives, thereby sending the police on wild goosechases, and giving false hope to the families?

How about creating a dangerous emotional dependency on the psychic? How about spending money on fake psychics?
Emphasis is mine.

The bolded part is the part you chose to quote, out of context, but the context makes it quite clear that it is still a discussion about individual incidents, about anecdotes.


So you said this:

Originally posted by jzs:

How much $? Could you give us some actual numbers?

-snip-

The plural of anecdote is not data.
In context, the question is an okay question. It seems as if you’re asking for the $ associated, anecdotally, with an incident.

So I answered it this way:

Originally posted by Garrette:

Yesterday I saw a palm reader advertising for $5.

I think Sylvia's going rate is $750.
And I responded to the anecdote/data comment this way:

Originally posted by Garrette:

Which is the whole point.
Then CFLarsen said this:

Originally posted by CFLarsen:

Sylvia Browne claims to do 15-20 readings a day. At $700 a pop. You do the math.
This didn’t satisfy you, though it was not at first clear why.


Your response was:

Originally posted by jzs:

You're saying we counter anecdotes by more anecdotes. Got it
You were almost correct, he was saying use anecdotes in the face of anecdotes to demonstrate their unreliability.

But though you say you “got it” you decided to ignore it and later said this:

Originally posted by jzs:

What are you not understanding about actual data?
Ashles seemed to figure it out first and said this:

Originally posted by Ashles:

Okay, how about a$300 million a year estimate for the psychic hotlines alone?
And when you didn’t respond to this, he asked:

Originally posted by Ashles:

Any comments on the $300 million figure I linked to?
To which your biting response was:

Originally posted by jzs:

Yeah, the comment is is I was responding to garret, not you.
To summarize:

When the discussion was about anecdotes you asked questions about aggregate data.

When this was pointed out, you acknowledged it then ignored it.

When Ashles gave you what you requested anyway, you dismissed it because it didn’t come from the correct poster (me).

I find it more and more difficult to take you seriously.

To which I am predicting you will respond that you have no reason to care if I take you seriously or not.

I agree. Just as I have no reason to care if you care and recursively on and on and on.

Just letting you know.
 
CFLarsen said:
He is well on his way into the "I am going to ask for evidence, and when I get it, I will ignore it, and instead come up with new conditions, so I won't have to admit that I was wrong" territory.

What evidence did you present, claud?

Or was it 'bleedin' obvious'? :D
 
Garrette said:

When the discussion was about anecdotes you asked questions about aggregate data.


The point, which still escapes you, is that they said the cost of a reading is X dollars, and a psychic claims to do Y readings per day, therefore the total cost is 365XY.

I'm interested in the actual costs, not what is projected based on a rate and a claimed amount, and an assumption of the same number of readings done per day.


I find it more and more difficult to take you seriously.


If you would focus on the data and not me, you might not get mistaken for a clausite.
 
Just out of interest jzs, do you dispute the £300 million figure?

If so why?

And do you have other figures of your own?

(With these questions I am, of course, assuming that you agree with the initial assumption that a certain amount of money is spent on these paranormal matters each year - If you disagree with that assumption I'd be really interested in your reasoning)
 
Ashles said:
Just out of interest jzs, do you dispute the £300 million figure?


I'm asking you to show that the number means it is harmful. I'm not disputing the actual number.

But, the number is an estimate from 1997, and we have no idea whatsoever how it was obtained. All we have from your site is

"Mark Plakius, managing director of Strategic Telemedia, estimates that psychic hotlines are a $300 million-a-year industry in the United States and account for about one-third of the total "1-900" market. The average call brings in around $40 (SouthCoast Today, 03/22/1997). "

Which doesn't give me any information on specifics.
 
jzs said:
I'm not disputing the actual number.

But, the number is an estimate from 1997, and we have no idea whatsoever how it was obtained. All we have from your site is

"Mark Plakius, managing director of Strategic Telemedia, estimates that psychic hotlines are a $300 million-a-year industry in the United States and account for about one-third of the total "1-900" market. The average call brings in around $40 (SouthCoast Today, 03/22/1997). "

Which doesn't give me any information on specifics. [/B]
Well if you're not disputing the actual number then what's the problem?

If you are disputing the number (which you claim you're not) then do you have another source of information?
If so could you link to it?
 

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