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Complaints Dept: Connie Sonne MDC

Basic experimental statistics (as I understand them, but I may be wrong):

Two possible realities: 1) The given phenomenon exists, or 2) the phenomenon does not exist.

Two possible experimental outcomes: 1) The given phenomenon is detected, or 2) the phenomenon is not detected.

Thus, a 2x2 matrix of combinations:

| Exists | Does Not Exist Detected |A|B
Not Detected |C|D

In an ideal world, A and D would be the only outcomes that ever occur. But we don't live in an ideal world and thus B and C can also occur. In order to get as close as possible to the ideal, a good experiment is designed to minimize the likelihood of B and C.

The allegation being made about the MDC is that while the protocols minimize the odds of B (a false positive), they do not necessarily minimize the odds of C (a false negative). Thus, while the overall challenge may be fair in the legal sense (the applicants are voluntarily agreeing to the protocols), the design of the protocols is improper.

Do I have all of this right?
Unfortunately, you can't have both. Some protocols are more complex, but if we stick to the schematic protocol, there is a middle zone (represented by B and C in your table) where the result is stochastic with the weight moving from a high chance of a false positive (B) to a high chance of a false negative (C).

Now, some might find this unfair to the paranormal claimant, but the only reasonable thing to do when setting up a single trial with high stakes, on an extraordinary claim, is the require extraordinary evidence, which means that the ideal point is just where C ends and D begins.

The claimant can counteract this by stating a conservative success rate.

Hans
 
The article made no mention of the voices in Connie Sonne's head.
The article made it look like Ms. Sonne was an active participant in the procedure, whereas my research indicates she was no more than a gullible dupe.

Excuse me! Do you really suggest that the JREF should mention that they thought they were dealing with 'the voices in CS's head'?

They were dealing with Connie Sonne, and as long as not otherwise proved, anybody doing that must assume that she is a reponsible person. Had it been evident that she was insane, then the only proper thing to do would be to refuse to negotiate at all.

It seems that you have determined that CS is not sane and are complaining that JREF has treated her as if she was.

Hans
 
Unfortunately, you can't have both. Some protocols are more complex, but if we stick to the schematic protocol, there is a middle zone (represented by B and C in your table) where the result is stochastic with the weight moving from a high chance of a false positive (B) to a high chance of a false negative (C).

Now, some might find this unfair to the paranormal claimant, but the only reasonable thing to do when setting up a single trial with high stakes, on an extraordinary claim, is the require extraordinary evidence, which means that the ideal point is just where C ends and D begins.

The claimant can counteract this by stating a conservative success rate.

Hans

Hans, for the sake of daSkeptic, I feel obliged to point out that your explanation is wrong. I've pretty much given up on you, but I'd prefer that you don't affect others' understanding.

Linda
 
Well, that's my question. Why would we assume that it's important to protect those who are exploited by psychics when we aren't interested in protecting those who are exploited by the JREF?

Linda

Well, we wouldn't "assume that it's important to protect those who are exploited by psychics when we aren't interested in protecting those who are exploited by the JREF". At least I hope we wouldn't. That's why I suggested we assume the opposite of that, namely "that it is equally important to protect" both.

Your arguement in stating the first assumption is, perhaps, that JREF isn't interested in the welfare of applicants, but that wasn't my question.

My question, then, was taking that assumption (again, I'm talking about "that the welfare of either is equally important"), what changes could be made at the JREF to improve protection of the applicants without sacrificing the service they do for the victims of psychics?

You see, if we are able to determine some positive change for applicants, we could suggest such change. If such a change appears sound and the JREF declines it without reason, then one would have grounds for suggesting JREF was uninterested in the welfare of applicants.

You've made one suggestion already in the intervening discussion:
Something like?...

"All tests are designed with the participation and approval of the applicant, however, you may be at a disadvantage if the test is set near the success rate you think you have. It is to your advantage to perform controlled tests to help you choose a success rate you are likely to pass. Forum discussion can be very helpful in this regard."

If I'm not mistaken JREF already points applicants to the forum as a resource, it may seem reasonable to suggest more specifically that they seek assistance on establishing a success rate favorable to the applicant's chances via self-testing. Would you care to send it via e-mail, or shall I? (unless a moderator comments in the meantime, noting that JREF has been made aware of such suggestion I suppose).
 
Something like?...

"All tests are designed with the participation and approval of the applicant, however, you may be at a disadvantage if the test is set near the success rate you think you have. It is to your advantage to perform controlled tests to help you choose a success rate you are likely to pass. Forum discussion can be very helpful in this regard."

All you really need is the last sentence.

Again you really don’t want to be making explicit statements that could be construed as going to intent. Sure it may be an unwritten rule of contract negotiation, but no one wants to put it in writing or see it in writing on the contract or the paper work outlining the negotiation process.

“In negotiating this contract we will seek any possible advantage such that the resulting agreement will screw the ever-loving ******* **** out of you.”

Intent is difficult to infer, but if you make explicit statements (in the documentation) going to your intent that do not indicate a fair intent (or you acting in good faith) you’re much better off not including those statements. Unfortunate though it may be, if that leaves a somewhat naive person to figure out the potential ramifications of the agreed success rate on their own, but again this is not an ideal world.


I agree that there is a substantial number for whom it will make no difference. And that includes the audience, as well. I am thinking of the few where you can actually make a difference (and I think Pavel is one of them). I have been a teacher, so I know what it's like to keep trying to get through over and over and over again. But those few times that you do are all the reward that you need.

Indeed if it reaches just one it is easy to say it is worth it, but there may be other factors to consider (particularly as I mentioned before legal ramifications) when entering into a contract. Rightfully so, those matters are up to the attorneys and the administrator of the MDC.


ETA: I have selfish motives as well, as I am interested in pursuing claims of anomalies in a way that would allow for real progress. Identifying skilled individuals is one way to pursue this, so I don't want to miss an opportunity to do so.

Well data is collected, I don’t know how readily available it is, but I don’t see why the JREF can’t have its cake (the prize remains unclaimed) and eat it too (get good and useful data even in a failing tests).


I think the points that you raised can serve as an incentive, though. If you make it clear to the claimant that it is their fault if the protocol is not fair, by telling them that they shouldn't assume that it will be fair just because both have agreed to a particular success rate, maybe that will get them to take a step back from defensive mode into active participant mode. I don't know.

Again rough ground legally, fair is what both parties agree is fair, unless of course one party specifically makes assertions that go to intent and that intent being to deliberately deceive the other party. Nothing makes the understanding of the success rate by one party the responsibility of the other party, but once you start inferring an intent, or just the potential, to obfuscate a potential lack of fairness by the agreed success rate you leave your self open (I think) to matters of legal redress. As long as you don’t make that assertion explicit in writing, its caveat emptor when it comes to the success rate (for both parties). Once you do start claiming not only a potential lack of understanding by the applicant of the implications of the success rate, but also explicitly remark to a potential, or intent, to use that lack of understanding in a way that you also explicitly state goes to the fairness of the agreement, you’ve just opened up a very big nasty can of worms and dumped them all over yourself (again I think, since I’m no lawyer).


If you give them cause to mistrust what they are attesting to?

Linda

Not really sure what you are asking here, but the one they really should not be trusting is themselves and that is whom they need to be given cause to mistrust. Again it is most likely that lack of mistrust in themselves that has brought them to this juncture in the first place.


My own disclaimer.

I am not a lawyer nor do I have any connection nor affiliation to or with the JREF or the MDC, other then simply being a member of this discussion forum.

Dan “The Man”.
 
To Weirld : You do`nt believe in magic........ neither do I.

People can call themself magican. It`s people who can fool the eyes and minds - AND people who works together with scientists and electric engineers and so on.

Then there are people who really can something in diffenrent ways - but that is NOT magic.

Unfortunately among them, there are frauds and charlatans. People who are spinning gold on their claims. They CAN`T do anything at all - they are just frauds and they know it. Among them you find Uri Geller, Houdini and Sylvia Brown( and many others). Sylvia can`t do anything, but her son can by the way!

Those three person are spinning gold, no doubt about that, and JREF made it be possible. They worked together ! in a "mission". That mission will be described later on at my website www.conniesonne.dk .

But shortly : JREF and many others knows that there are something bigger, but they don`t know what it is. .

IF they allowed people who really could do something to convince people out there about the paranormal
 
To Weirld : You do`nt believe in magic........ neither do I.

People can call themself magican. It`s people who can fool the eyes and minds - AND people who works together with scientists and electric engineers and so on.

Then there are people who really can something in diffenrent ways - but that is NOT magic.

Unfortunately among them, there are frauds and charlatans. People who are spinning gold on their claims. They CAN`T do anything at all - they are just frauds and they know it. Among them you find Uri Geller, Houdini and Sylvia Brown( and many others). Sylvia can`t do anything, but her son can by the way!

Those three person are spinning gold, no doubt about that, and JREF made it be possible. They worked together ! in a "mission". That mission will be described later on at my website www.conniesonne.dk .

But shortly : JREF and many others knows that there are something bigger, but they don`t know what it is. .

IF they allowed people who really could do something to convince people out there about the paranormal


Fraud.
 
IF JREF allowed people who really could do something to convince the rest of the population ,for example through the Challenge, that the paranormal excists, THEY would loose their control, and they will NOT do that.

And that it was it all is about : CONTROL.

But no matter what people do, think or talk about.... it will NOT change the way the truth will come out.

But I`m sorry to say that a lot of people still will die before someone are going to listen to me. And I`m also sorry to say, that I can`t do anything about that. I can only do what I`m doing.
 
JREF knows that I`m talking the truth. Before the Challenge, I gave them a cd-rom with the voices from those who are behind me. They KNOW that I could`nt manipulate with the soundfiles- Experts could easily control it!
JREF NEVER mentioned it for the public. And yes Weirdl: you are right, I NEVER designed the parameters myself, JREF did but I agreed. As you can read, I tried to convince JREF that I could do a lot more things, which would`nt be so boring as it was. I will write much much morre at my website.

I also gave the voicefiles to Bart Farkas and Mark Edwards. They NEVER mentioned it. Mark is a part of "the mission" , trying to debunk everything paranormal in his kind of way.

Bart Farkas is only being used - and he is afraid of his job. And I understand that!

I do like both of the men anyway, it is NOT their fault things are what they are!


There are NO GODS and the DEVILS are only the human being!!

All religion is man made, just because of one thing : For getting control over it all at least, when THEIR right time comes( and it will NOT happen :) )

And Marcus: Yes, of cause I will write about the cheating, as I have told you all the time, but NOT in a brief manner, and NOT on this forum. I will be writing about it on my own website.
I know that JREF looks at my website too, they can just read it there.
 
To Pavel Do : You are right about saying that some people think that english is the only language. And I`m glad to say that I agree with you comment about being born in another country. I`m also glad that my english is NOT my first language:) !

The most important thing is, that people understand your and the opposite. Some people are trying to "hurt" us with our language, because they can`t hit us in another way.
I can only laugh about that, because I really don`t care at all :)!

Connie
 
IF JREF allowed people who really could do something to convince the rest of the population ,for example through the Challenge, that the paranormal excists, THEY would loose their control, and they will NOT do that.

And that it was it all is about : CONTROL.

Are you claiming that the JREF control all the information that goes out over the internet, newspapers, news broadcasts and all wider media?
 
I missed something:). When I wrote about Bart Farkas, I forgot this:

Bart Farkas is afraid of LOOSING his job. That was what I meant. Sorry.
 
chillzero....who knows :),but they are a part of something much bigger than most of the people knows here!

Really?

What about you?

Please present your evidence, as detailed and extensive as possible and with all questions that might theoretically arise already answered and with all cheap excuses for denial already covered, that you and all the other frauds are NOT part of a vast international conspiracy of frauds and conmen (and conwomen) who are out to falsely convince people of the existence of something called "supernatural powers", because they try to control everyone by making them believe that they have those powers and can do all sort of supernatural things with those powers.

In short, before you go around accusing others of fraud and conspiracy, prove to us, up to the same standards you demand, that YOU are not exactly what you claim JREF to be. Yes, I´m aware that doing so is impossible for you, because your standards are loaded like anything - well, tough luck for you, you made your bed, now lie in it.
 
And Marcus: Yes, of cause I will write about the cheating, as I have told you all the time, but NOT in a brief manner, and NOT on this forum. I will be writing about it on my own website.
I know that JREF looks at my website too, they can just read it there.
Okay. I doubt if any JREF people read your website, but I'm sure some forum member will see it and link it here. I have to say, though, I don't think a long diatribe will convince anyone. If you actually were cheated, you could state the specifics in a paragraph or two, and it wouldn't take months to do it.
 

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