Merged Cold Fusion Claims

[Aepervius]

You are very silly, Rossi or whoever can run the test with decent protocols. All that is needed is a well measured power supply and a still water bath.

those two things Rossi just can't seem to encompass.

And FFS, NO fragging phase change. It would be sooooo easy to make a much better measurement by staying way under vapor phase change, and it would be less easy to cheat out output calculation, by say, discretely vidanging water going into the outlet, or overestimating the vapor output. Not even counting that the temperature sonde was not even at a good position.

 

[pteridine]

That's easy; because he's a fraudster and his magic water heater is a scam.


No. He knows that proper examination of his magic water heater will show it to be a fraud. Like his previous scams.
This thread is about certain claims of low energy (cold) nuclear reactions, specifically those of Andrea Rossi and his associates. They've been dealt with in detail:

• his claimed mechanism won't work, according to well proven nuclear physics
• his claimed mechanism would show products, e.g. Copper and ionising radiation that don't exist
• he refuses to allow proper testing (not ncessarily examination of the the mechanism) of his claimed device

His claimed mechanism doesn't effect the phenomenon. According to many knowledgeable people, his claimed mechanism is probably incorrect.

What he refuses to do is to publically demonstrate his device for the kibitzers of the world. Investors and licensees will determine what "proper testing" is, not a self-appointed group of posters on a forum site or a group of academic vultures hoping to cash in if it works or pick over the corpse if it doesn't.

It would satisfy a great deal of curiousity if he would do a series of public validations but he is apparently not at that point yet. I would certainly like a test using the protocols developed at the Chennai meeting but that doesn't seem to be happening.

 

[Dancing David]

His claimed mechanism doesn't effect the phenomenon. According to many knowledgeable people, his claimed mechanism is probably incorrect.

pteridine, he has not even convinced investors, I so don't know what you are pretending.

It is not kibitzing to point out that so far he has not demonstrated that his device produces more energy coming out than goes in. So far he has no investors and in fact the last I heard was just that he is again saying he has them.

So where is that plant he was going to produce last October?

There is no effect that has been demonstrated.
Period
Full stop

 

[ben m]

I don't pretend anything. He cares what potential customers think. He does not pay attention to JREF posters. In Rossi's world of Italian business, money talks.
This took longer than three seconds to type but I did think about it for three seconds.

So you think "incompetent demonstration carried out for an invited press audience" is normal Italian business practice? You think "describe incompetent demo to Swedish academics, brag about their response on your blog" is normal Italian business practice? You think "invite Steve Krivit to tour your factory, show him a malfunctioning e-cat which underproduces steam, and denounce him on your blog" is normal Italian business practice?

 

[Craig B]

I don't pretend anything. He cares what potential customers think. He does not pay attention to JREF posters. In Rossi's world of Italian business, money talks.
This took longer than three seconds to type but I did think about it for three seconds.

What customers? Who? Where? As far as we know, his allegedly sold device was never delivered to the unnamed and unidentified customer. This on account of a failure of its gaskets. At all events, there is no independent evidence that a single one of these contraptions is in use anywhere or has ever been sold to anybody. We don't even know where his factory is, the initial understanding that it is in Florida having been denied by him to the state regulatory authority. Manifestly, he has no factory. He has no devices except the steam-puffing kettle he keeps for show.

If he cared what potential buyers think, he would be trumpeting news of the profound satisfaction felt by his existing customers, if such there be, and putting them in touch with other interested persons. In fact, he has no customers for e-cats. People pay for licences to sell e-cats. That is a tried and true scam methodology. The whole thing is utterly ridiculous!

 

[CORed]

His claimed mechanism doesn't effect the phenomenon. According to many knowledgeable people, his claimed mechanism is probably incorrect.

What he refuses to do is to publically demonstrate his device for the kibitzers of the world. Investors and licensees will determine what "proper testing" is, not a self-appointed group of posters on a forum site or a group of academic vultures hoping to cash in if it works or pick over the corpse if it doesn't.

It would satisfy a great deal of curiousity if he would do a series of public validations but he is apparently not at that point yet. I would certainly like a test using the protocols developed at the Chennai meeting but that doesn't seem to be happening.

Of course he's "not at that point yet". What you don't seem to understand is that he will never be at that point. If he actually had what he claims to have, he'd have next best thing to a license to print money. All he needs to do is actually start producing the energy he claims he can produce, or selling the devices to others to produce energy.

OTOH, if he doesn't actually have a working device, he needs to keep promising to deliver in the near future, and keep making excuses for the device being delayed, and he damn sure needs to make sure nobody does a rigorous test of the device, so he can keep attracting investors. As long as he can do that, he can pay himself a salary, expenses, and any other means of skimming he can think of.

 

[pteridine]

pteridine, he has not even convinced investors, I so don't know what you are pretending.

It is not kibitzing to point out that so far he has not demonstrated that his device produces more energy coming out than goes in. So far he has no investors and in fact the last I heard was just that he is again saying he has them.

So where is that plant he was going to produce last October?

There is no effect that has been demonstrated.
Period
Full stop

Your opinion that he has not convinced investors is based on what? A gut feeling?

I agree that "it is not kibitzing" to point out that he has not publically demonstrated the effect but that was determined many pages ago. How much pointing out do people need? All the posts about batteries, propane cylinders, testing, fraud, criminal record, physics, and so forth is kibitzing, isn't it?

This entire thread can be summed up with "No public demonstration has provided sufficient data to show that the effect is real."

 

[Reality Check]

pteridine, the Piantelli/Focardi/Rossi system was debunked in January 2011

This system is not the same as the Piantelli/Focardi/Rossi system.

My comment was about LENR not the Rossi scam or the "Piantelli/Focardi/Rossi system".

For LENR we have attempts at actual science which has so far failed to produce credible results and is ruled out by what we know about physics: Cold Fusion: Issues

Clinging to the "Piantelli/Focardi/Rossi system" is quite ignorant because it was debunked at the start of the thread over a year ago !
22nd January 2011

Originally Posted by ben m
And none of this matters for Rossi's poor deluded investors, since at lab temperatures the 62Ni(p,gamma) cross section is zero point zero times zero to the zeroeth zeroness. But the Q value *is* positive.

(the reaction is exothermic).

And on 13th May 2011:

Originally Posted by ben m

Let's not even get into the copper. The only way to make Cu from Ni is via neutron capture *and* beta decay. The only way to make 30% abundant 65Cu is by 64Ni(n,gamma)65Ni, and 65Ni beta decay---a really violently high-energy beta/gamma emitter. Too bad that 64Ni is only 0.9% of natural nickel; how do you make 0.1x0.3 = 0.03 grams 65Cu per gram of Ni, when the parent gram of nickel only starts with 0.009 grams of 64Ni to begin with? And when isotope analysis said that only 0.001 grams of the 64Ni had been used up?

 

[pteridine]

So you think "incompetent demonstration carried out for an invited press audience" is normal Italian business practice? You think "describe incompetent demo to Swedish academics, brag about their response on your blog" is normal Italian business practice? You think "invite Steve Krivit to tour your factory, show him a malfunctioning e-cat which underproduces steam, and denounce him on your blog" is normal Italian business practice?

Remember, Ben, Rossi is trying to sell his device. The press is important so he will try to influence the press and promote his device to potential customers.

Read my post and point out where I said "normal Italian business practice."

 

[ben m]

Something I pointed out, deep in one of these threads:

Imagine that there is an actual Rossi customer, with an actual 1MW E-cat installed, actually producing 1MW of pollution-free cold fusion energy. At electricity-like prices, that something like $1,000,000 worth of energy. Now, real businesses---and there are many examples of this---like to publicize their use of green energy. In fact, lots of real, verifiable, non-scam businesses are willing to pay an extra $0.03/kWh ($200,000 per E-cat per year?) to buy green-certified energy from their utilities. They're eager to obtain tax credits for their certified-and-inspected green energy installations.

And Rossi would, normally, advertise this as part of *his* amazing product. "Buy my E-cat for $1.2M", he'd be able to say, "and here's the certificate that makes you eligible for a $200,000/y renewable energy tax credit in the following countries ... "

So the purported "satisfied E-cat customer"? It's one think to hypothesize that a customer wishes to remain anonymous. It's another to hypothesize that this customer is so eager for anonymity that they're flushing away $200K/y by not declaring their renewable-energy as such.

But no, according to Pteridine, I'm not allowed to think about that. I'm supposed to sit here and believe everything Rossi says, because that's the only source of information, and therefore it is presumed true until proven false.

 

[ben m]

This entire thread can be summed up with "No public demonstration has provided sufficient data to show that the effect is real."

Quite the contrary: I feel that the public demonstrations provide considerable data suggesting that the effect is not real. I believe that the public demonstrations show exactly the normal behavior of a lump of pipe with a 3kW electric heater stuck into it.

 

[Reality Check]

A better question might be "why hasn't Rossi done what we want him to do and why hasn't he provided the information that we want?"

The better question is the basic question: "why hasn't Rossi done what he has said that he will do (build actual power plants) and why hasn't he provided the information that whould actually prove his claims conclusively?"

Why is he not providing anything to those who are customers for his device?

For that matter does he have any customers? We see claims that there are customers but the customer do not materialize. Why would these "customers" be so shy? It is just power plants.

All we can conclude is that there is not enough evidence to determine if LENR is a real phenomenon.

That is stating the obvious - decades of LENR research has not been able to establish that LENR is a real phenomenon. And the reason is probably simple - LENR does not exist because it is ruled out by what we know about physics.
Of course thre are other options, e.g. new physics. But that requires a high level of evidence which the existing researchers seem unable to provide.

My personal nitpick about LENR is the question of how come we do not get LENR laboratories exploding or gamma radiation killing off the researchers?
IOW: How come the excess heat released is to closer to chemical levels, not nuclear levels?
To me that suggests systematic experimental errors rather than real phenomenon. Otherwise it is a quite strange coincidence that the universe acts in such a way to preserve the lives of LENR researchers.

 

[ben m]

Remember, Ben, Rossi is trying to sell his device. The press is important so he will try to influence the press and promote his device to potential customers.

Try again, and notice the distinction: why did Rossi conduct incompetent public demonstrations, as opposed to competent ones? That's the question you are unable to answer. "Private demos only" sorta makes sense, but that's not what happened. "Stun the scientific world with a public demo" totally makes sense, but that's not what happened. You need to explain the actual behavior: "Public demo with fake instrumentation, stun a few nobodies, evoke laughter", which makes no sense at all.

Unless that's the best you can do, because your instrument doesn't actually work, and your goal is to get one or two mid-sized checks from the gullible nobodies.

 

[catsmate]

What he refuses to do is to publically demonstrate his device for the kibitzers of the world. Investors and licensees will determine what "proper testing" is, not a self-appointed group of posters on a forum site or a group of academic vultures hoping to cash in if it works or pick over the corpse if it doesn't.

Untrue. When he and his supporters were attempting to obtain money in Australia a local skeptic, invited by one of the investors, proposed a proper test. Rossi ran away.

 

[Dancing David]

Your opinion that he has not convinced investors is based on what? A gut feeling?

That last bunch that was claimed did not exist.

I agree that "it is not kibitzing" to point out that he has not publically demonstrated the effect but that was determined many pages ago. How much pointing out do people need? All the posts about batteries, propane cylinders, testing, fraud, criminal record, physics, and so forth is kibitzing, isn't it?

Nope, they make a claim, we analyze it.

This entire thread can be summed up with "No public demonstration has provided sufficient data to show that the effect is real."

Yup, except for the ones that aren't.

"he only knows that excess heat is released."

How does he know?

"The unit ran for an entire heating season on a single charge and this ruled out chemical reactions."
"12 kW output with much less than 12kW input. "
"All that is known is that more energy appears to come out than goes in."

Really what evidence is there of that?

"The many experiments pointing toward the reality of LENR"
"This will likely change in the near future should Rossi continue to show results."
"This will work itself out over the next year or so and all will learn something about science and human nature." 2/1/2011
"Rossi didn't care and just built the reactor and it produces heat. Voilà."
"Given the water flow rates and heat flux required to make steam, the internal temperatures would likely be significantly greater than 140C."
"Regardless, this will be resolved with a long term test of weeks or months." 2/14/2011
"My position is that the reaction will be shown to be real or not over the next year or so" 2/15/2011
"He also says that a 1MW unit will be working in Greece before 2012."
"Although it could be some unknown reaction or method to lower the Coulomb barrier, I am puzzled by those false people on the "board"."
"Professor Bolotov is now claiming to have a cold fusion device that takes 5kW in and produces 200kW out."
"In 23 March-2009 Pamela Mosier-Boss reported compelling new scientific evidence for the existence of cold fusion."

I will stop as the Pedrone quotes would be overwhelming.

 

[Dancing David]

Remember, Ben, Rossi is trying to sell his device. The press is important so he will try to influence the press and promote his device to potential customers.

Read my post and point out where I said "normal Italian business practice."

Um, if he could demonstrate an actual effect, there would be no question of the investors coming out to purchase shares.

 

[Mashuna]

Remember, Ben, Rossi is trying to sell his device. The press is important so he will try to influence the press and promote his device to potential customers.

I agree his aim is to make money from his device. If he has a working device, he's acting in a strange manner and doing very badly at making money from it. If he's got nothing, or running a con, he's acting in the expected manner.

This is purely from a business point of view, as I'm not qualified to comment on the physics of the matter.

 

[Craig B]

I agree his aim is to make money from his device. If he has a working device, he's acting in a strange manner and doing very badly at making money from it. If he's got nothing, or running a con, he's acting in the expected manner.

This is purely from a business point of view, as I'm not qualified to comment on the physics of the matter.

Neither am I, but the physics is not the important issue in the field of cold fusion machines.

Rossi's main rivals Defkalion Green Technologies promised in February that there would be exhaustive tests of their device by independent observers. The details of the results and the names of the people performing the tests have never been revealed, so no comment on the "physics" of their "Hyperion" machine is possible. Nevertheless, a few days ago Defkalion sent a "private" letter to interested parties. See https://plus.google.com/u/0/109367316429719678205/posts/JQf54WUY2Cb . Some extracts:

Defkalion has conducted third party tests on its core technology by internationally recognized and reputable private and public organizations from Europe and America ... Our launch-strategy for this technology with minimal risk of failure encompasses fast speed, wide applications, many countries, competitive pricing, protection against competition, as well as in-depth international support. Your interest represents one of over 1,000 entities from more than 70 countries. Our business with potential partners is two-fold: either as an OEM to manufacture, sell and service our products in given countries, or to jointly create R&D project towards new applications using our technology.

Defkalion business is primarily a technology licensing company with expected revenues being generated from the following models:

a. OEM License Agreements. Licenses to build and sell Hyperion products are sold to companies with exclusivity for a given country. Each license sold for Euros 40.5 million represents one factory with maximum capacity 300,000 units annually ...

b. Joint Ventures through R&D. Companies can further develop Defkalion’s proprietary LENR technology as a heat source through joint R&D for specific processes and/or applications according to their expertise as global leaders in their own industry. Defkalion shall partner with them with global distribution rights as niche market players, where R&D is coordinated in Greece ...

Should you be interested to continue through one of these approaches, please contact us accordingly ...

No "physics", but copious detail on how to invest in this wondrous technology.

 

[pteridine]

Something I pointed out, deep in one of these threads:

Imagine that there is an actual Rossi customer, with an actual 1MW E-cat installed, actually producing 1MW of pollution-free cold fusion energy. At electricity-like prices, that something like $1,000,000 worth of energy. Now, real businesses---and there are many examples of this---like to publicize their use of green energy. In fact, lots of real, verifiable, non-scam businesses are willing to pay an extra $0.03/kWh ($200,000 per E-cat per year?) to buy green-certified energy from their utilities. They're eager to obtain tax credits for their certified-and-inspected green energy installations.

And Rossi would, normally, advertise this as part of *his* amazing product. "Buy my E-cat for $1.2M", he'd be able to say, "and here's the certificate that makes you eligible for a $200,000/y renewable energy tax credit in the following countries ... "

So the purported "satisfied E-cat customer"? It's one think to hypothesize that a customer wishes to remain anonymous. It's another to hypothesize that this customer is so eager for anonymity that they're flushing away $200K/y by not declaring their renewable-energy as such.

But no, according to Pteridine, I'm not allowed to think about that. I'm supposed to sit here and believe everything Rossi says, because that's the only source of information, and therefore it is presumed true until proven false.

You are speculating again, Ben. Do you think that a potential customer would not realize that this energy source is CO2 free, even if it is definitely not 'renewable?' Values of energy are location dependent, so concluding anything without taking that into consideration is pointless. Today, Henry Hub natural gas was $1.88/MM BTU which is roughly 20 minutes of operation of the 1MW_t ECat. Maybe the ECat wouldn't be much of a bargain at that price.

Do you believe that if this phenomenon is real and is developed to the point of commercialization that the users would not take every advantage that they could?

Are you one of the posters that believes that his every thought is original and he alone has deep insight into the meaning of Life, the Universe and Everything? Deep Thought has already solved it. 42.

Please do not try to paint me as a villain and yourself an opressed martyr to the truth. Not even Rossi believes everything Rossi says. In my opinion, there is enough to say that LENR should be explored further. Whether it is real or not is to be determined. Whether it is nuclear fusion or not is to be determined. If it is real, the mechanism of reaction are to be determined. If it is real, it should be studied to determine if the effect is general.

You and some of the local poseurs continually grind away at such a position and point out the many errors in the Rossi demonstrations as though you are the only ones who realized this and are imparting some great wisdom to the world.

I understand your position, Ben, and I assume that you understand mine. I cannot explain the actions of Rossi nor do I feel the need to speculate on details of his business of which I have no knowledge.

There is no need for consensus nor conflict. I will continue to wait for resolution as a neutral observer.

 

[Craig B]

pteridine

Why so unpleasant? Posting questions about Rossi's credentials is not the same as thinking that one has unique insights into the Meaning of Life, or is a Martyr to Truth. Why do you write such things? A moment's reflection would convince you that you risk seeming merely ridiculous to your readers.