CME's, active regions and high energy flares

[Tubbythin]

Your previously quoted source has *ABSOLUTELY NOTHING* to do with the present moment and the number of CME's occuring per day during *THIS WEEK*.

Don't blame others for the fact that you failed to back up your claims of predictive power. If you'd shown us all to begin with with an analysis of the data that a) the mean rate was 1 per day and b) events were uncorrelated then people wouldn't have to go looking for other sources. You failed to start with a) and you are still to show b).

It is therefor another perfect example of USELESS math and math that is completely unrelated to solar physics in the present moment.

It's very useful in principle to get a feel for things. For example, without this number we'd have no idea whether to expect of order 0 to 10 per day, 0 to 10 per year or 0 to 10 per hour. Why? because you failed to provide the vital evidence to support your claim.

FYI I actually COUNTED them, but you go right ahead and stick to a quote that isn't even relevant today since you don't want to embrace reality *TODAY*.

No, I want you to show me the evidence you have a statistically significant predictive tool.

 

[Tubbythin]

I just computed the odds of guessing correctly for you based on statics that are relevant *TODAY* not at some distant (year away) point in the future. What you're doing is "fudging the numbers" to suit yourself and your ignoring the real "science malarkey" entirely.

Not at all. I can show you exactly where the numbers I used came from. And your statistics were clearly wrong since you were claiming all areas of the Sun should be equally likely for a CME event as the base assumption. No competent astronomer is likely to make this claim.

ETA: Oh, and I'm still waiting for evidence to back up your implicit assertion that CME events are uncorrelated.

 

[D'rok]

D'rok, the only way to KNOW how many CME's happen per day this week is to COUNT them.

I'm not qualified to do so. As it happens, neither are you. That leaves me no choice but to look elsewhere for help.

 

[Michael Mozina]

Don't blame others for the fact that you failed to back up your claims of predictive power. If you'd shown us all to begin with with an analysis of the data that a) the mean rate was 1 per day and b) events were uncorrelated then people wouldn't have to go looking for other sources. You failed to start with a) and you are still to show b).

If you want to blame me for not calculating the odds for you up front, fine. I will accept that criticism. I have however since rectified that situation. I showed you that there is only a 2-3 percent chance of randomly guessing the correct time slot and quadrant of any given CME. Did you revise your position accordingly, or did you just ignore the math that you found to be "inconvenient"?

 

[Michael Mozina]

I'm not qualified to do so. As it happens, neither are you. That leaves me no choice but to look elsewhere for help.

You easily *COULD* be qualified to count CME's in COR and LASCO images if you WANTED to be. If not, well, I can't help you.

 

[GeeMack]

You easily *COULD* be qualified to count CME's in COR and LASCO images if you WANTED to be. If not, well, I can't help you.

The point is, who cares? You look at a picture of solar activity and you "predict" there will be more solar activity where some already exists. It's not science. It's looking at a couple of pictures and making the obvious guess. Duh. I already showed you that monkeys and dolphins could do it. Are you suggesting you're proud to be as smart as a monkey? Are you suggesting anyone should think it's somehow special, unique, or interesting that you can do something a well trained dog could do? Again I ask, even though you continuously and deliberately ignore the question, so what? Why should anyone care?

 

[Tubbythin]

If you want to blame me for not calculating the odds for you up front, fine. I will accept that criticism. I have however since rectified that situation. I showed you that there is only a 2-3 percent chance of randomly guessing the correct time slot and quadrant of any given CME. Did you revise your position accordingly, or did you just ignore the math that you found to be "inconvenient"?

Sigh. Your null hypothesis is stupid. It really is like claiming it is as likely to rain in any given square mile of the world as in any other.
Which bit of my maths do you object to?

 

[GeeMack]

No, you didn't "show" us anything. You "claimed" lots of stuff. You failed to predict anything yourself so all you "showed" us is that you lied.

Of course I can't be held responsible if you fail to follow the links I post. And as usual, your personal attack is noted.

And again you've ignored this part...

The point is, who cares? You look at a picture of solar activity and you "predict" there will be more solar activity where some already exists. It's not science. It's looking at a couple of pictures and making the obvious guess. Duh. I already showed you that monkeys and dolphins could do it. Are you suggesting you're proud to be as smart as a monkey? Are you suggesting anyone should think it's somehow special, unique, or interesting that you can do something a well trained dog could do? Again I ask, even though you continuously and deliberately ignore the question, so what? Why should anyone care?​

 

[Reality Check]

Michael Mozina,
Since you have been too lazy to answer Can you give a citation to an official announcement of the CME? , I have found a good resource:
The Space Weather Prediction Center has a daily Report on Solar and Geophysical Activity.

The report issued at the end of 11 Oct 2010 has

Solar activity was very low. Region 1112 (S19E40) showed little change during the period. SDO/AIA 193 imagery observed a filament eruption at approximately 10/2121Z. The filament was 17 degrees long and centered near S08E48, just north of Region 1112. A slow-moving, CME was detected at 11/0012Z by SOHO LASCO c2 imagery and did not appear to be Earth-directed.

So it looks like your unsupported assumption that the STEREO images show a CME about 10/10/2010 midnight UT was just an assumption on your part. However if you had looked at the SOHO data then you would have seen it. Maybe you did but kept it a secret for some reason.

P.S.
The last CME before this happened on 6 Oct 2010.

 

[Reality Check]

It looks like the interactive active regions have generated a small CME, but since the area is still pointed away from us, it is unlikely to have any effect on Earth.

The Space Weather Prediction Center daily Report on Solar and Geophysical Activity reports no CMEs for

• 2010 Sep 20
• 2010 Sep 21
• 2010 Sep 22
• 2010 Sep 23
• 2010 Sep 24
• 2010 Sep 25
• 2010 Sep 26
• 2010 Sep 27
• 2010 Sep 28
• 2010 Sep 29
• 2010 Sep 30
• 2010 Sep 30
• 2010 Oct 01
• 2010 Oct 02
• 2010 Oct 03
• 2010 Oct 04
• 2010 Oct 05

(one CME on 2010 Oct 06)

So I think that this is really a total guess from you where you have confused a flare with a CME. This is a typical problem "I see bunnies in the clouds" logic.

 

[GeeMack]

Remember this...

Currently it is 20:20 UTC 10/12/2010. I predict it will rain in Tupelo, Mississippi within two hours.

Here's the radar map for 22:28 UTC 10/12/2010, within minutes of my prediction for rain in Tupelo, Mississippi.

And sure as I'm sitting here, it's raining in Tupelo, heavily. Has been for over a half hour now, and will likely continue for at least that long again. That goes to show you can look at a picture showing some activity and "predict" that the activity exists! But only an idiot wouldn't have already known that. And only an idiot would find it compelling. Oh, and for anyone who does think it's special, unique, or interesting, I was closer on my time frame than Michael has been. And I narrowed the location in my prediction to a patch of land encompassing roughly 50 square miles, far smaller than the massive slab of the Sun's surface in Michael's "prediction". So much for doing science by looking at some pictures.

 

[Michael Mozina]

Oh, and for anyone who does think it's special, unique, or interesting, I was closer on my time frame than Michael has been.

No, you didn't. We aren't *PREDICTING RAIN* we're predicting CME's. At least D'rok had the courage to simply offer up a "guess". I guess he has a couple hours to go now. You're all hot air. No *SOLAR* predictions from you, just ridiculous claims and personal attack nonsense. What you won't ever do is make a real "prediction" related to CME's (*NOT RAIN*) because you're completely clueless as to the cause effect relationships that drive them.

If it's really that easy, show us. It's not. You're lying. If you think it's so easy, do it. If you don't do it, we know exactly why too. You're not capable of doing what you claimed a ten year old could do.

 

[Michael Mozina]

Ok D'rok, it's now 5:00 my time. By my clock you have about 2 hours to go. I'll go have dinner and check to see how you did. Did you want to refine your guestimate to include any particular side of the sun, or any particular quadrant?

 

[D'rok]

Ok D'rok, it's now 5:00 my time. By my clock you have about 2 hours to go. I'll go have dinner and check to see how you did. Did you want to refine your guestimate to include any particular side of the sun, or any particular quadrant?

I specified whatever the most currently active region is. I'm sure you'll be completely honest, and I have total confidence in your ability to accurately interpret NASA imagery.

 

[Michael Mozina]

I specified whatever the most currently active regions is. I'm sure you'll be completely honest, and I have total confidence in your ability to accurately interpret NASA imagery.

Well, while we're waiting, let's at least be clear about what we're looking for, set the ground rules and discuss which equipment we're using. Here's a COR2 image of the CME that I predicted. You'll notice that mushroom cloud looking structure flowing from the sun:

http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2010/10/11/behind_20101011_cor2_512.mpg
http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2010/10/11/ahead_20101011_cor2_512.mpg

Below is another COR 2 image from today (UT). If you're right, we should expect to see a similar looking thing start to form *SOMEWHERE* around the sun. My mushroom cloud necessarily required a specific directional component, whereas you've got pretty much the whole sun to work with. The STEREO behind link to the MPG movie hasn't been posted yet, (It just rolled over to the next day) but I'll post a link in a bit to the other view of the sun. At least one of those links should show the same type of mass ejection from the sun as you see in the first link. A CME is typically visible in both STEREO COR2 views as is the case on the 11th.

http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2010/10/13/behind_20101013_cor2_512.mpg

 

[D'rok]

Well, while we're waiting, let's at least be clear about what we're looking for, set the ground rules and discuss which equipment we're using. Here's a COR2 image of the CME that I predicted. You'll notice that mushroom cloud looking structure flowing from the sun:

http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2010/10/11/behind_20101011_cor2_512.mpg
http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2010/10/11/ahead_20101011_cor2_512.mpg

Here's another COR 2 image from today (UT). If you're right, we should expect to see a similar looking thing start to form *SOMEWHERE* around the sun. My mushroom cloud necessarily required a specific directional component, whereas you've got pretty much the whole sun to work with. The STEREO behind link to the MPG movie hasn't been posted yet, (It just rolled over to the next day) but I'll post a link in a bit to the other view of the sun. At least one of those links should show the same type of mass ejection from the sun as you see in the first link. A CME is typically visible in both STEREO view as is the case on the 11th.

http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2010/10/13/behind_20101013_cor2_512.mpg

The best way for you to convince me that my prediction has failed is to tell me that it has succeeded.

In other words, if you say that you have observed a CME, I can be confident that one has not occurred and my prediction is false.

Conversely, if you tell me that you have been unable to find a bunny in the relevant images, then I can at least be sure that my prediction has not been falsified. It will neither be confirmed nor disconfirmed.

Of course, I will accept a ruling from anyone qualified to do so. Zig, ben, Tim, or tusenfem would do off the top of my head. Others too, I'm sure.

 

[Michael Mozina]

FYI, that link I posted from today is short because "today" just started (universal time). You can go to the website directly at this link by the way:

http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse

 

[GeeMack]

No, you didn't. We aren't *PREDICTING RAIN* we're predicting CME's.

It's the same method. Only I'm much better at it because my time frame was tighter and more accurate and my location was a tiny little patch of land. You look at a picture that shows activity and you "predict" activity... activity that already exists. I can do it, too. If there's something special, unique, or interesting about looking at pictures of activity on the Sun and "predicting" activity that already exists, you have yet to explain it.

But as for CMEs? Reality Check already double checked you, and you were wrong. Wrong, Michael. You were incorrect, wrong, not right, you made a mistake, it was an error, you were wrong.

At least D'rok had the courage to simply offer up a "guess". I guess he has a couple hours to go now. You're all hot air. No *SOLAR* predictions from you, just ridiculous claims and personal attack nonsense. What you won't ever do is make a real "prediction" related to CME's (*NOT RAIN*) because you're completely clueless as to the cause effect relationships that drive them.

And again your personal attack is noted. Do you think Birkeland taunted anyone who doubted him? Do you think he threw tantrums and bitched and complained and told people they were clueless? Seriously, are you looking to get banned like you have from so many other forums before?

If it's really that easy, show us. It's not. You're lying. If you think it's so easy, do it. If you don't do it, we know exactly why too. You're not capable of doing what you claimed a ten year old could do.

Here's your prediction: You find that next picture that shows some activity on the Sun, and I'll predict that right there where you see it, there'll be some activity. Same way you do it. I don't care to waste my time doing a stupid trick that I could teach a dog, a pig, a monkey, or a dolphin. If it makes you feel good to do something a pig can do, by all means go for it. And it it makes you feel good to taunt and insult and whine, by all means do that, too. If you get banned you can always cry persecution.

But really, if you're heading towards something you believe has some scientific merit, throwing yet another tantrum isn't likely to get you very far. How about you describe what it is you're trying to accomplish by "predicting" activity where activity exists, and tell us why it's remotely interesting to "predict" activity where you already see activity.

 

[Michael Mozina]

The best way for you to convince me that my prediction has failed is to tell me that it has succeeded.

In other words, if you say that you have observed a CME, I can be confident that one has not occurred and my prediction is false.

Conversely, if you tell me that you have been unable to find a bunny in the relevant images, then I can at least be sure that my prediction has not been falsified. It will neither be confirmed nor disconfirmed.

Of course, I will accept a ruling from anyone qualified to do so. Zig, ben, Tim, or tusenfem would do off the top of my head. Others too, I'm sure.

You know, it always fascinates me when people refuse to believe what they can see with their own two eyes, yet they are willing to believe just about anything said by a self professed "expert". The religious overtones are really quite fascinating IMO. Just out of curiosity, just a yes or no will do, can you see that flowing mass coming from the sun in the first two links I posted?

 

[Michael Mozina]

It's the same method. Only I'm much better at it because my time frame was tighter and more accurate and my location was a tiny little patch of land.

Bzzt! We aren't talking Earth and rain, we're predicting CME's. Come back when you can make an actual "prediction" related to what we'll see in those COR2/LASCO images. You claimed any ten year old could do it, so what are you waiting for?