Clock ticking on fusion decision

[Brian the Snail]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4328597.stm

Europe has made it clear it will not wait beyond June to reach international agreement on where to site Iter, the experimental nuclear fusion reactor.

EU ministers said on Monday they wanted the matter resolved before the current Luxembourg presidency ends.

Europe believes Iter should be built at Cadarache in France, but other project members are backing Rokkasho in Japan.

I must say that, given the importance of the research, this kind of bickering over the location of the site looks rather petty.

Could this jeopardise ITER?

 

[PixyMisa]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4328597.stm

I must say that, given the importance of the research, this kind of bickering over the location of the site looks rather petty.

Could this jeopardise ITER?

Piffle. If it's important, it will get built.

 

[Rob Lister]

Re: Re: Clock ticking on fusion decision

Piffle. If it's important, it will get built.

I'm inclined to agree. I would even go so far as to replace the word 'important' with 'worth while'. It may not yet be. I will admit that even the building of it, and the politics therein, would aid in the ongoing research programs, which I support to a medium-small degree.

I'll also bet, and give good odds, that if, tomorrow, a huge breakthrough occured which make it possible to build hundreds of working, self-sustaining plants within the next calendar year, the environmentalist (funded no doubt by the oil and coal companies) would find a way to not only halt the construction but to make further thought of construction illegal.

 

[H3LL]

Isn't Japan a bit too earthquake prone to be a practical location?

I have no idea about France's seismic stability, but a stable site would seem sensible.

Why add an extra problem to a tricky project?

 

[PixyMisa]

Isn't Japan a bit too earthquake prone to be a practical location?

No, not really.

The Japanese have been running Super Kamiokande (a neutrino detector) for years, and apart from a nasty accident when they were cleaning it, it's been just fine. And it's really fragile.

Minor earthquakes can be mitigated at relatively little cost; major earthquakes in a particular location are rare even in Japan.

 

[jay gw]

The Iter design is for the reactions to take place inside a 100-million-degree gas (plasma) suspended in an intense doughnut-shaped magnetic field.

Iter will consolidate all that has been learnt over many decades of study. It is expected to produce 500MW of fusion power during pulses of at least 400 seconds.

If it achieves this and its technologies are proven to be practical, the international community would then build a prototype commercial reactor, dubbed Demo.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4328597.stm

I would say the final stage before commercial nuclear fusion reactors is worthwhile but what do I know.....

 

[Matabiri]

I must say that, given the importance of the research, this kind of bickering over the location of the site looks rather petty.

Well, there is a lot of money involved. Tens of billions of euros, over a decade or two. IFMIF, the materials research facility, is considered the booby prize and is worth about 15 billion euros, I think.

I'd be surprised if Europe didn't get it. The big players in fusion research are Europe and Japan, and with China and Russia backing us up and good old bloody-minded France leading the negotiations, we've got a good case. South Korea and the US aren't really big in fusion research.

 

[Brian the Snail]

Re: Re: Clock ticking on fusion decision

Piffle. If it's important, it will get built.

Well I'm not sure what I did to provoke such a dismissive response. Are you saying that ITER or research into nuclear fusion isn't important? Or that there's no chance that this disagreement could jeopardise the project?

 

[PixyMisa]

Re: Re: Re: Clock ticking on fusion decision

Well I'm not sure what I did to provoke such a dismissive response. Are you saying that ITER or research into nuclear fusion isn't important? Or that there's no chance that this disagreement could jeopardise the project?

No.

What I'm saying is that European political squabbling won't derail fusion research for very long. Given the long-term financial rewards, someone will build the next-generation research facility.

Fusion research matters. France doesn't.

 

[Carn]

I must say that, given the importance of the research, this kind of bickering over the location of the site looks rather petty.

Doesn't the importannce of the research make the "bickering" far more interesting for the participants?
At the ITER the next generation of fusion experts will be trained, those guys any corp might need to build commercial ones. Therefore it might have long term effects upon where the first commercial use of fision might start.
However globalized we become, it's always easier to recruit someone if he has to move 100 kilometres instead, instead of 10000 kilometres. And some of those clever scientists working somewhere for 10 years have a tendency to settle down in the region.

Could this jeopardise ITER?

No.


About the ecologist, they already have their ideass against fusion:
It produces radioactive waist and in case of accidents there can be radioactive fallout.(Greenpeace magazin, 1988!!)

It did not occur to them, that the radioactive waist produced have short half live time, so after 50 years it's on the level of radioactivity generated by coal plants and not far above solar plants.
And the "fallout" in case of accident would endanger at most the guys sitting in the control room. Deaths due to accident during building and maintanance of equivalent amount of wind plants are far more numerous.

Carn

 

[Rob Lister]

Re: Re: Clock ticking on fusion decision

Doesn't the importannce of the research make the "bickering" far more interesting for the participants?
At the ITER the next generation of fusion experts will be trained, those guys any corp might need to build commercial ones. Therefore it might have long term effects upon where the first commercial use of fision might start.
However globalized we become, it's always easier to recruit someone if he has to move 100 kilometres instead, instead of 10000 kilometres. And some of those clever scientists working somewhere for 10 years have a tendency to settle down in the region.


No.

I don't want to sound skeptical but what are the odds that this next generation of fusion experts will not be (long) retired by the time the first commercial plant comes online? IOW, what is the time-line (in years?decades?) for ITER construction and results analysis + the timeline for the re-engineering (brought about by the results analysis for building the prototype commercial reactor Demo + plus the construction of Demo + design and construction of the first commericial plant?

ETA: I'll weigh in a vote for Japan as well. Not because they are better engineers (they arn't), not because it's a better location (it isn't), but simply because they appear to be better at keeping things on schedule and within funding cryteria (possibly an unfounded bias but I have it nonetheless). One thing is certain about ITER, it will be a real money pit.

 

[ppnl]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Clock ticking on fusion decision

No.

What I'm saying is that European political squabbling won't derail fusion research for very long. Given the long-term financial rewards, someone will build the next-generation research facility.

Fusion research matters. France doesn't.

European political squabbling? I seem to remember that it was the USA that started this whole mess by supporting Japans bid as payback for Frances opposition to war in Iraq.

Or maybe there is some other reason we insisted that Japan host it dispite all the aquabbling it has caused.

 

[Carn]

Re: Re: Re: Clock ticking on fusion decision

I don't want to sound skeptical but what are the odds that this next generation of fusion experts will not be (long) retired by the time the first commercial plant comes online? IOW, what is the time-line (in years?decades?) for ITER construction and results analysis + the timeline for the re-engineering (brought about by the results analysis for building the prototype commercial reactor Demo + plus the construction of Demo + design and construction of the first commericial plant?

Plan for ITER working nicely i think is around 2020-25, DEMO should then work around 2035-40.
So you caught me, it would probably be the next-next generation or so.

Carn

 

[Rob Lister]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Clock ticking on fusion decision

Plan for ITER working nicely i think is around 2020-25, DEMO should then work around 2035-40.
So you caught me, it would probably be the next-next generation or so.

Carn

I wasn't trying to 'catch' you. I was just curious. Still, given the timeline I really don't think it matters where it is built. I also don't want to [personally-through taxes] invest to terribly much into it. I don't mind a resonable investment however. I'm in the medium-low category. I don't think commericial fusion is, as yet, even remotely necessary (I have a very high risk-tolerance to fission byproducts) and I think we have a long, long way to go before the benefits and costs of fusion development outweigh the risks and lack-of-real-costs that fission...er...enjoys. This assumes they (given the technology currently within our grasp) can develop a viable (and sustainable) energy coupling scheme, as well as solving a whole host of other sustainability problems. Go slow, keep the designs current with current technology, help to grow the technology, and we'll be there in 50 years. <--- there's a little hidden sarcasm in that number.

 

[jay gw]

Does anyone else find it a little odd that the United States is not the major player in fusion research?

America has led the world for the last 100 years in science and technology. About 90 percent of the world's patents were from Americans. The majority still are.

However, why did the US basically opt out of this research??

The most important science being done today is connected to energy, and American scientists are not participating in any substantial way.

Maybe I'm just speculating too much....I find this a troubling sign.......

 

[Rob Lister]

Does anyone else find it a little odd that the United States is not the major player in fusion research?

America has led the world for the last 100 years in science and technology. About 90 percent of the world's patents were from Americans. The majority still are.

However, why did the US basically opt out of this research??

Is opting-out of the research defined, in your mind, as not taking the lead role? Whatever.

There is no upside for the U.S. in taking the lead-role, so far as I can see. Our involvement in the research will still give us access to all the technology arising from this venture. Others want the lead role for what I assume are both pork-barrel and prestege reasons -- which may yield a return on the yen or euro. Will either of these will yield a significant return on the U.S. dollar? If so, I can't see how.

ETA: Although I do see some some political capital for the U.S. in opting out of the lead role while maintaining political influence in who does eventually get it.(dis'sing France is as much fun as it is ... well, it's just fun, we can leave it at that.) Besides, Japan can probably do a better job.

 

[RussDill]

Does anyone else find it a little odd that the United States is not the major player in fusion research?

America has led the world for the last 100 years in science and technology. About 90 percent of the world's patents were from Americans. The majority still are.

However, why did the US basically opt out of this research??

The most important science being done today is connected to energy, and American scientists are not participating in any substantial way.

Maybe I'm just speculating too much....I find this a troubling sign.......

Eh? ITER is the us department of energy's number 1 priority.

http://fire.pppl.gov/iter_us_news.html

We've already spend $400M on ITER and continue to provide funding and support:

http://www.ofes.fusion.doe.gov/more_html/Presentations/PlasmaScienceNAS.pdf

 

[Rob Lister]

double post.

 

[ppnl]

Eh? ITER is the us department of energy's number 1 priority.

Maybe. But we just recently got back into the project after haveing pulled out of it totally. And the first thing we do is create this mess with Japan.

 

[Carn]

Does anyone else find it a little odd that the United States is not the major player in fusion research?

America has led the world for the last 100 years in science and technology. About 90 percent of the world's patents were from Americans. The majority still are.

90% between 1905 and 2005?
That seems a bit much, do you have something to support that number?
I would have guessed it to be lower, maybe 60%-70%.

However, why did the US basically opt out of this research??

The most important science being done today is connected to energy, and American scientists are not participating in any substantial way.

From what do you conclude, that US scientists are not participating in an important way?

Maybe the US is just letting europe and japan the ITER, because they want the DEMO and would be in a bad osition to get both.
And how do you know, that the most important research is about energy?
Fusion power will not have any importance before 2050 and it is only of great importance, when thinking about larger time scales, something like 200 years, so hurry is not necessary with fusion, it will not help with global warming.

Maybe I'm just speculating too much....I find this a troubling sign.......

Don't worry, there is still at least from Germany a large brain drain of scientists to US, while apparently we brain drain Russia.

Carn