China... the new superpower

[headscratcher4]

Fortunately, George Bush has a plan for undermining China's growing role in the world .....

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2005-06-23-world-poll_x.htm?csp=34

ooops, something's amiss.

 

[Ziggurat]

Re: Re: China... the new superpower

No doubt about it. There have been a number of Chinese I have worked with all of whom agree that the future belongs to China.

One question: are those chinese co-workers working in China or outside, such as in the US? I suspect the later, in which case, you have to wonder why they aren't in China if China is really so ascendant.

 

[Ziggurat]

Why would any of this necessarily be a bad thing?

It would be VERY bad if China, in its current form, were to become the dominant world power. Why? Because they are still ruled by a belligerant communist government that still practices oppression at home and is willing to spread violence abroad in pursuit of its goals. You think China has any qualms about supporting the Sudanese government just because of a little genocide? Not a chance. China is the primary obstacle to applying any pressure against them.

On the other hand, I wouldn't have any problem with a liberalized China that actually respected human rights being a dominant world power. But that's a far cry from where they are now.

As has been pointed out by others, there's a good chance that China won't actually be ABLE to become a dominant world power UNLESS they liberalize. China suffers from some pretty monumental domestic problems that are either going to put the brakes on their economic expansion if they spend the resources to address them or are going to lead to serious instability if they choose not to. China is also a second-rate economic player. All they do is manufacture western technology: there IS no Chinese technology. Their economic system does not respect intellectual property or reward innovation. When your success as a businessman depends more on the government officials you know than on the efficiency advantages you can gain over your competitors, innovation doesn't really happen. At the end of the day, China can NEVER become a leading world power if it cannot start leading in technology. And the only way that can realistically change is if they liberalize.

 

[coalesce]

As has been pointed out by others, there's a good chance that China won't actually be ABLE to become a dominant world power UNLESS they liberalize. China suffers from some pretty monumental domestic problems that are either going to put the brakes on their economic expansion if they spend the resources to address them or are going to lead to serious instability if they choose not to. China is also a second-rate economic player. All they do is manufacture western technology: there IS no Chinese technology. Their economic system does not respect intellectual property or reward innovation. When your success as a businessman depends more on the government officials you know than on the efficiency advantages you can gain over your competitors, innovation doesn't really happen. At the end of the day, China can NEVER become a leading world power if it cannot start leading in technology. And the only way that can realistically change is if they liberalize.

Well put.

The biggest difference between China and the US right now is that they don't innovate, they just manufacture. Their business culture--and much of their society--does not encourage free thought. Not enough people are encouraged to think on their own. It's easy enough to make things when you are told, it's another thing entirely when asked to come up with something original.

I remember in Bladerunner the language that Gaff spoke was a mixture of Japanese and German, because at the time, it was looking like those two cultures were going to be the dominant ones in the future--the language of money. It didn't quite turn out that way. They are certainly major players, but not the dominant, global ones envisioned in the movie. I believe the same path lies ahead for China: a big player on the field, but certainly not the only one.

Michael.