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China... the new superpower

zenith-nadir said:

Could be, but in my opinion they are going to run into the same problem everyone else does, but on a much larger scale, labor rights, working conditions, environmental regulations and human rights issues.

China's economic development is largely based upon a small, well educated class, a very large unskilled labor force that works for pennies on the dollar (they compete on a wage basis with ultra poor nations) and an even larger segment of the population that is so out of the loop I doubt they even know their government is communist and they are so poor they don't realize they are poor.

As they develop and a few make tons of cash the workers are going to demand more and human rights groups are going to put increasing pressure on them and environmental groups are going to go after them for their pollution and inefficient resource usage.

In other words they are going to end up being forced to compete in the global market place on terms that will increasingly be the same as what 1st world nations deal with.

When that happens their economic advantage disappears.

China is growing rapidly because they started at zero. The question is how far can they progress before the labor|human|environmental forces take their advantage away from them?
 
Re: Re: China... the new superpower

Grammatron said:
Yeah, remember when that happened with Japan?

I remember it well. And they would have gotten away with it too if it weren't for Sean Connery and Wesley Snipes.
 
Re: Re: China... the new superpower

Grammatron said:
Yeah, remember when that happened with Japan?
There aren't 1.2 billion Japanese, if there were everybody would be kissing their butt. Of course I'm fairly certain China won't match the states within 10 years.
 
Re: Re: Re: China... the new superpower

corplinx said:
I remember it well. And they would have gotten away with it too if it weren't for Sean Connery and Wesley Snipes.

Those meddling kids!
 
Re: Re: Re: China... the new superpower

corplinx said:
I remember it well. And they would have gotten away with it too if it weren't for Sean Connery and Wesley Snipes.
:dl:
 
looks like to uk is going to need some more people. Anyone got a 100 million we can have?
 
China is of course already a regional power and with continued economic development will probably become a global superpower. Their purchases of US dollar-denominated securities with the proceeds of their massive trade imbalance with the US has been a factor in keeping interest rates as low as they are.

But bidding for Unocal means bupkes. The whole bid comes to something like 15 hundredths of a percent of GDP.

The Maytag story, though smaller, is sadder. Maytag of course has been a producer of high-quality goods and the "Maytag Repairman" commercials played off a reputation for quality which they earned and deserved. Unfortunately, they didn't see competition coming. Fairly high-quality imports, primarily from Korea, offered consumers lower prices but even more importantly features which Maytag didn't think consumers cared about -- lighter weights, electronic interfaces, smaller sizes, etc. When metal prices ran up, they were cooked. I hope someone can turn the company around and I don't much care if the lead of the investor group is a Chinese company.
 
By the way, if a Chinese person ever asks for intellectual property rights to one of your almopst bankrupt car manufactures in exchange for considering a possible contribution of a future massive lump sum of cash at an undiclosed time, perhaps if they feel like it........ dont.

Cant trust a Chinese take-away!
 
Re: Re: Re: China... the new superpower

corplinx said:
I remember it well. And they would have gotten away with it too if it weren't for Sean Connery and Wesley Snipes.

:D

Lurker
 
Re: Re: Re: China... the new superpower

corplinx said:
I remember it well. And they would have gotten away with it too if it weren't for Sean Connery and Wesley Snipes.

Good one ;)
 
Re: Re: Re: China... the new superpower

Kerberos said:
There aren't 1.2 billion Japanese, if there were everybody would be kissing their butt. Of course I'm fairly certain China won't match the states within 10 years.

Yeah but for how long?

US is powerful, how much butt kissing did we get? :)

Anywho, my money's on India.
 
Re: Re: China... the new superpower

billydkid said:
No doubt about it. There have been a number of Chinese I have worked with all of whom agree that the future belongs to China.

You know, the good thing about this is that anybody that actually believes that China is going to become the next economic superpower is more than able to put their money where their mouth is and invest in China's economy directly.

That's the beauty of capitalism -- even a round-eye can cash in from the comfort of his Made In Taiwan desktop computer :) .
 
This assumes that tyrants will allow unpopular people to makes lots of money which implies power. It also assumes that the most talented people in China will choose to remain in a country where they face arrest for speaking their mind. It assumes that somehow China is going to educate 1.1 billion people in the near future.

As long as China can advance with bureaucrats and their cronies leading their way, they will. Once they reach a point where it takes true ingenuity, they will stagnate. They have the capacity to become a huge, second rate version of Japan.

Currently they have shown the ability to copy foreign manufacturing, pay minimal wages and manipulate currency. The proper way to think of China is that they are 10th place cross country skier. The first 9 skiers have made a nice, smooth trail for them to follow. China is catching up but has no chance of overtaking the other skiiers without allowing freedom.

CBL
 

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