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Chasing Two Rabbits

Puppycow

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There is an old adage that says "He who chases two rabbits at once will catch neither."

This article (NY Times) and this video explain that the Taliban are having a resurgence in Afganistan, and are retaking territory that had previously been won.
KANDAHAR, Afghanistan, Aug. 26 — Over the past six weeks, the Taliban have driven government forces out of roughly half of a strategic area in southern Afghanistan that American and NATO officials declared a success story last fall in their campaign to clear out insurgents and make way for development programs, Afghan officials say.

A year after Canadian and American forces drove hundreds of Taliban fighters from the area, the Panjwai and Zhare districts southwest of Kandahar, the rebels are back and have adopted new tactics. Carrying out guerrilla attacks after NATO troops partly withdrew in July, they overran isolated police posts and are now operating in areas where they can mount attacks on Kandahar, the south’s largest city.

The setback is part of a bloody stalemate that has occurred between NATO troops and Taliban fighters across southern Afghanistan this summer. NATO and Afghan Army soldiers can push the Taliban out of rural areas, but the Afghan police are too weak to hold the territory after they withdraw. At the same time, the Taliban are unable to take large towns and have generally mounted fewer suicide bomb attacks in southern cities than they did last summer.
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If we didn't have most of our army occupied in Iraq, we could afford to send reinforcements. Not only is the Iraq war a huge disaster, but it is also preventing us from winning this other war. If we weren't surging in Iraq, we could be surging in Afganistan. It is a huge opportunity cost and strategic blunder to have such a big commitment in Iraq. Bush and his advisors are completely incapable of strategic thinking.

If we had sent enough resources to Afganistan in the first place and really committed to transforming the country, we could have won a strategic victory and eliminated Al Qaeda. Instead, our strategy has made Al Qaeda stronger.

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[size=+5]YOU EEEDIOT![/size]
 
would even Afghanistan ever be winnable anyway? The place is about 2/3 the size of europe, and combined with the terrain and climate, it's a monster of a country....Perhaps if we stationed 100,000 troops there permanently we might have some sucess...but i don't see any way out of Afghanistan without a Taliban resurgence.
 
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andyandy said:
would even Afghanistan ever be winnable anyway? The place is about 2/3 the size of europe, and combined with the terrain and climate, it's a monster of a country....Perhaps if we stationed 100,000 troops there permanently we might have some sucess...but i don't see any way out of Afghanistan without a Taliban resurgence.
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Looking at the situation in Afghanistan pre-Iraq invasion, at MINIMUM we (the true coalition of the willing), should have captured and/or dealt with Osama bin Laden and got the Taliban out of there. A stable democratic-like society would have been gravy.

Afghanistan has a long history of invasions and although I haven't studied the history in depth, it seems none of them were successful.

I still don't understand why Iraq was such a priority (notwithstanding neocons in power and an upcoming 2004 election) with the outstanding issues in Afghanistan.

Charlie (they make great hash) Monoxide
 
Charlie Monoxide said:
Charlie (they make great hash) Monoxide
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...they make good everything now...:D

2001 opium production under the taliban est ~200 tons
2007 opium production under coalition est ~8000 tons


Afghanistan now accounts for more than 93% of the world's opiates.
Helmand province is now the biggest single drug-producing area in the world, surpassing whole countries such as Colombia.
193,000 hectares of opium poppies are being grown in Afghanistan.
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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/6965115.stm
 
andyandy said:
would even Afghanistan ever be winnable anyway? The place is about 2/3 the size of europe, and combined with the terrain and climate, it's a monster of a country....Perhaps if we stationed 100,000 troops there permanently we might have some sucess...but i don't see any way out of Afghanistan without a Taliban resurgence.
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I think the answer is yes. Without Iraq that level of commitment would actually have been sustainable, if necessary. Even that commitment would be less than the current combined commitment of Afghanistan and Iraq. We would be free to use our best generals like Petraus and best units. The key 'center of gravity' I believe would be in education, especially of girls. If the majority came to see a better future for themselves through modern civilization, it would work in the long run.
 
andyandy said:
would even Afghanistan ever be winnable anyway? The place is about 2/3 the size of europe, and combined with the terrain and climate, it's a monster of a country....Perhaps if we stationed 100,000 troops there permanently we might have some sucess...but i don't see any way out of Afghanistan without a Taliban resurgence.
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Yeah, sending in 100,000 troops worked so well for the Soviets.
 
Charlie Monoxide said:
Looking at the situation in Afghanistan pre-Iraq invasion, at MINIMUM we (the true coalition of the willing), should have captured and/or dealt with Osama bin Laden and got the Taliban out of there.
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You're assuming that OBL is actually in Afgfhanistan (unlikely) and "getting the Taliban out of there" is tantamount to "getting the Afghanis out of Afghanistan".
 
WildCat said:
Perhaps if we killed the opium farmers we could get the success rate the Taliban had? Do you support that?
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woah mr confrontational! The fact remains that the continued surge in opium production has been a major failing of our involvement in Afghanistan - and undermines development. Surely one can remark as such without being given a Taliban or Freedom dichotomy? Or can we not talk about opium production? Is that too unpatriotic?
 
andyandy said:
would even Afghanistan ever be winnable anyway? The place is about 2/3 the size of europe, and combined with the terrain and climate, it's a monster of a country....Perhaps if we stationed 100,000 troops there permanently we might have some sucess...but i don't see any way out of Afghanistan without a Taliban resurgence.
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That wouldn't work. It would simply result in a longer war of attrition which you would eventually lose regardless of numbers.

The way to win the war is the tried and true method of colonization. Give free land out to any American/Brit/Canadian who was willing to move there and then have the military protect them ruthlessly. The local population is given two options: either assimilate and live as your conquerors do or be exterminated.

In a few years you would have the local population under control and more territory in your possession. In a few more years, once the locals have gotten used to the system, you would be able to allow them into government without having to worry about their reverting to the tribal system.
 
andyandy said:
woah mr confrontational! The fact remains that the continued surge in opium production has been a major failing of our involvement in Afghanistan - and undermines development. Surely one can remark as such without being given a Taliban or Freedom dichotomy? Or can we not talk about opium production? Is that too unpatriotic?
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If Europeans would stop using heroin the market for Afghani opium would be almost non-existent, and production would cease.
 
WildCat said:
If Europeans would stop using heroin the market for Afghani opium would be almost non-existent, and production would cease.
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in the early 90s production was around 3000 metric tons
under the Taliban crackdown it was reduced to around 200metric tons
Now it is 8000metric tons

whichever way you dance, those aren't impressive figures. It supplies 87% of the global opiate trade - there are an est. 3.3million heroin addicts in Europe and 11million globally - so even if you wish you can't blame it all on European junkies. In any case, when did we slip into utopia-land? Eradicate drug use in Europe? There's a greater chance of establishing functional democracy in iraq...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/afghanistan/story/0,,2112348,00.html
 
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Even with 100,000 troops of course, tactics and strategy still matter.
And there were policies that actually encouraged opium production early on.
They paid farmers who were producing opium to stop producing it, which of course had the perverse effect of incentivizing farmers who hadn't been producing to start production so that they could also be eligible for payments. A more effective approach would have been to subsidize other food crops.
It should be possible to crack down on poppy production without getting as barbaric as the Taliban also. But it would help to begin with better security.
 
WildCat said:
You're assuming that OBL is actually in Afgfhanistan (unlikely) and "getting the Taliban out of there" is tantamount to "getting the Afghanis out of Afghanistan".
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I think you should familiarize yourself with the history of the Taliban. They're primarily a hard-code Muslim group from Pakistan that came in after the vacuum left by the Soviet invasion.

And even if OBL is straddling a border, kill the SOB and put his head on a pike for the news media.

If you want to defend Mr W., tag your post with "Bush apologist" for clarity sake ...

Charlie (Iraq Invasion = biggest centurial mistake so far and the century is still young) Monoxide
 
andyandy said:
would even Afghanistan ever be winnable anyway? The place is about 2/3 the size of europe...
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Europe is about 10 million km^2. Afghanistan is about 650 000 km^2.

I think you meant 2/30 the size of Europe.
 
And if we stationed 400,000 troops in Afghanistan we would be hearing about how were smothering them when we don't even know if OBL is there or not.

Would people stop linking troop levels in Afghanistan to the capture of OBL as if they knew this was the way to magically capture him in hindsight.
 
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