Changes To The Challenge

[Jim_Mich]

You have a "power" that you have to develop a test for to even demonstrate it reliably to yourself.

No, I have a power that I might like to develop a test for so it can be demonstrated it reliably to others.


Jim_Mich

 

[Jim_Mich]

Thabiguy, you're suggesting parlor trick type demonstrations. I've almost never used my power for such. I don't know for sure how the outcome would turn out. I've used the power for bigger thing in life, like asking the boss for a very big raise. I've used it to assure that a business succeeds. I've used it to prevent serious accidents on the road. All things that each by themself could be attributed to just good luck. Then somehere here says prove it. So I try to prove it and I hear that's not good enough proof becuse you might cheat.

Jim_Mich

 

[andyandy]

No, I have a power that I might like to develop a test for so it can be demonstrated it reliably to others.


Jim_Mich

How about,

you remain blindfolded throughout

The coin used is not a normal circulation coin (which you can learn to identify sides through touch alone) but rather a smooth coin, simply marked "H" on one side and "T" on the other. You do not get to see the coin.

You make your prediction before coin is placed upon your finger/thumb each time. The person placing the coin uses a random number generator to decide whether to place that coin "H" face up or "T" face up.

You are not made aware of the success/failure of predictions until the test is finished.

I think if the above controls were in place, and you were able to replicate your claims, then this could have potential.....

 

[timokay]

Maybe it's because in the past the events that I've effected usually involved people. I don't know if I can control totally mechanical events.

My first expeience involve getting a teacher to pick my table earlier than the other tables. This was in 1st or 2nd grade (I had the same teacher for both grades). Finding a wallet in a big field involved myself. Not getting a speeding ticket involved the officer and the poor other driver. I'm trying to think off any incident that didn't involve people.

Jim_Mich

Jim,

I can see that your are very intelligent, and intelligence often has very little to due with whether or not someone is deluding themselves. Often high intelligence allows someone to support their delusion by using data or convincing arguments.

But if you can, please consider that you have put yourself in a position where you are looking for results, and then only accepting the positive, and ignoring anything that does not support your expectations.

Consider,

How many times was your table NOT picked?
How many times have you NOT found something?
How many speeding tickets have you gotten (bad example since some of us never have gotten any, I myself, drive like my car is made of glass)?
I have gotten many raises, and my business is very successful, does this mean I have the power also?
How do you know you prevented anything?

Why is it that these events stick in your mind, and you feel that they indicate your power? Every day a thousand little events occur to all of us, and they just happen. Why did you pick out these?

If I am running towards the elevator, and I make it in time, did I influence this? What about the hundred other times the door closed in my face?

You have already equated your power with seeing, hearing, etc. And yet your examples are paltry and few.

For the many reason that have already been stated, the coin tossing test will not be sufficient, and is probably not admissible as designed anyway. I suggest you focus on something that can be demonstrated reliably that will leave no doubt that you have some sort of paranormal ability.

Or, you face the unglamorous fact that you are just a normal guy.

 

[Jim_Mich]

I am just a normal guy. I think this ability is present in all of us. And like I said from the very beginnig I think it would be hard to prove.

So after I show the results of my preliminary coin testing then things switch to "that's not good enough proof!" I think maybe paranormal things secretly scare some of you. You want to cover your eyes and look the other way and pretend you don't see anything.


Jim_Mich

 

[Thabiguy]

Thabiguy, you're suggesting parlor trick type demonstrations.

I fail to see how influencing the outcome of a coin toss isn't a parlor trick type demonstration and identifying which cup conceals a coin is. Care to enlighten me regarding the difference?

Then somehere here says prove it. So I try to prove it and I hear that's not good enough proof becuse you might cheat.

No, that's certainly not what I am saying. You believe you have powers. Okay. You tried to experiment to see if you can use your powers to influence small things, as opposed to big things. You say you can do that with tossing coins. Good!

The way you chose for proving your powers - tossing coins - is unlikely to be accepted as a valid protocol by JREF, for various reasons discussed above. Pity. But there are other protocols that don't suffer from this problem. I suggested one of them - a test that is directly related to stuff you said you'd done in the past (wallet in the field) and, in terms of odds to beat, is identical to the one you say you're succeeding in.

But the important thing is that we know that this test is suitable for the JREF challenge, because JREF has accepted this protocol before.

I'm not suggesting this because I want to downplay your other experiment, nor because I want to shift any goalposts. I'm suggesting this because if you are able to do that, then you can apply for the JREF challenge! Which is what this is (hopefully) all about.

 

[timokay]

I am just a normal guy. I think this ability is present in all of us. And like I said from the very beginnig I think it would be hard to prove.

So after I show the results of my preliminary coin testing then things switch to "that's not good enough proof!" I think maybe paranormal things secretly scare some of you. You want to cover your eyes and look the other way and pretend you don't see anything.


Jim_Mich

Jim,
Please address the issues I posted above, I am not interested in the coin tossing protocol at all. I am interested in why you think you have a special power.

 

[Reager]

I'm officially signing off on the topic of Jim_Mich's "powers," as it's a total waste of time. I'll just note, again, is it any wonder the Challenge needed to be revised?

 

[Startz]

Maybe it's because in the past the events that I've effected usually involved people. I don't know if I can control totally mechanical events.

Jim_Mich

Requiring the use of people instead of machines seems fair. How about you pick a friend to do the coin tossing. The friend stays in another room. You are randomly asked to nudge each toss toward a head or toward a tail. Then the friend makes the toss.

Can you get more than half heads when you're trying for heads, and similarly for tails?

-Dick Startz

 

[BillyJoe]

Dan & Tim

You need to learn a lot more about the power of suggestion and visual perception if you expect to be a credible witness to for paranormal tests. Yes, I would agree that it would take a considerable skill to override the visual input with a projected mental image. But considering that most of us do that every night it's a latent talent and not something that can be ruled out by saying the subject would have to show signs of mental illness.

Dan and Tim,

Confession:
I tried a few coin tosses last night, to see if I could detect any problems.
I found three:

- lighting

The room I used has a variable intensity light switch. This was initially was set fairly low - because that's where it happened to be set when I started my trial. As a result, I had trouble reading the coin. In full light, however, I had no trouble at all. The setting was actually ideal, otherwise, because there is a set of six down lights directly above where I did the trial, so shadows were not a problem.

- coin

I didn't have a coin handy. As it turns out but my wife has a small collection of overseas coins which she has collected on business trips. The first one I used proved problematic because I couldn't clearly state which one was heads and which tails. Eventually I found a familiar Australian coin, for which the difference is so great you'd have to be an idiot not to immediately see the difference.

- time

I did find that momentarily I could imagine seeing the face I picked. However it was only momentary and it was inclined to happen when I'd made a series of misses. I don't think I recorded any results incorrectly but I decided to change my protocol just in case. I decided to take my pen and pad and place it alongside the coin on the carpet, look at the coin closely, and carefully record the result.


regards,
BillyJoe

 

[Thabiguy]

So after I show the results of my preliminary coin testing then things switch to "that's not good enough proof!" I think maybe paranormal things secretly scare some of you. You want to cover your eyes and look the other way and pretend you don't see anything.

Now that's what I call wishful thinking.

Jim, if you really thought that you can "prove" your powers to skeptics by posting messages on this board, you must have serious misconceptions about the word "skeptic". It all boils down to the fact that everything you've written is text on the screen. Will you believe me if I tell you that I've been able to levitate ever since birth and throw in charts detailing the height that I'm able to lift myself off the floor? Will you?

No amount of text that you post will prove anything, no matter how serious looking and no matter how much you swear that you're not making it up. But that doesn't mean that it is a lost cause and that skeptics can't be convinced. You can prove your powers (to me, at least) by winning the Million Dollar Challenge.

That is the only purpose of this discussion. If you thought we expected you to prove your powers, you were wrong. We've been trying to help you work out a protocol and refine your claim so that it is suitable for the JREF challenge - the real way to prove your powers.

I don't appreciate you accusing us of covering our eyes and looking the other way. If we wanted to do that, why would be here, talking to you and trying to help you apply for the challenge? I could just sign off and pretend that I've never heard of Jim from Michigan. But that's not what I want; I want to see your claim tested. I want to help you get the chance to prove what you claim. Win the challenge and prove your powers. Or back off, and I'll draw my own conclusion.

 

[BillyJoe]

An explosion of posts since I last looked in...and I see Reager has been defeated.

I will try to get through then later.
(I work Saturdays as well )

 

[Jim_Mich]

Thabiguy, I'm sorry. You're right about trying to prove anything to forum members. It's just that each suggestion seems complicate things. Flipping coins is such a simple uncomplicatad test. I'll await Jeff Wagg's reply to my question whether the claimant might be allowed to flip the coins under proper conditions.

Jim_Mich

 

[timokay]

Thabiguy, I'm sorry. You're right about trying to prove anything to forum members. It's just that each suggestion seems complicate things. Flipping coins is such a simple uncomplicatad test. I'll await Jeff Wagg's reply to my question whether the claimant might be allowed to flip the coins under proper conditions.

Jim_Mich

Or, in the meantime, we can address the issues I have raised, such as, why do you insist that you have powers at all?

Do you not think it is worth exploring?

 

[Jim_Mich]

timokay, what is there to explore? If you begin with the premise that I don't have this power then buzz off since your just a pseudoskeptic. If you begin with an honest open yet skeptical mind and are willing to accept that what I say might be truth then explore away.

Jim_Mich

 

[timokay]

tomokay, what is there to explore? If you begin with the premise that I don't have this power then buzz off since your just a pseudoskeptic. If you begin with an honest open yet skeptical mind and are willing to accept that what I say might be truth then explore away.

Jim_Mich

Jim,
I am earnestly trying to open an honest dialogue with you, and yes, I do not believe that you have any power. I have no reason at all to think that you do.

Are you only going to deal with people who already accept what you say as fact? You will not find many of them here, and you will find even less if you try for the MDC. I am sorry to say that it is my opinion that even the people "helping" you to create a protocol are just setting you up to see you fail. That is the reality of this forum.

You can label me whatever you want, or you can mispell my name, and insult me if you wish, but what I would rather is hear your thoughts about what it is about you that compells you to think that random, everyday events have a special significance for you.

 

[Jim_Mich]

Timokay, sorry about the misspelled name, that was just a typo.

I will deal with anyone that doesn't make judgements without a full inquiry (which is called prejudice) and who will investigate rather than just discredit.

Jim_Mich

 

[timokay]

Timokay, sorry about the misspelled name, that was just a typo.

I will deal with anyone that doesn't make judgements without a full inquiry (which is called prejudice) and who will investigate rather than just discredit.

Jim_Mich

I am trying to investigate. You just don't like the questions I am asking. You won't even entertain the idea that you are mistaken about this ability you think you have.

Why is that? What would be so bad about coming to this realization?

I am asking the very first question that everyone should be asking, and that you should be asking yourself Do you have any powers at all? What makes you think so?

You seem very threatened by my line of inquiry, and if you think I am being critical, then you have underestimated the challenge. Flipping a coin and guessing the outcome is not going to win you a million.

 

[BillyJoe]

...in your reported results, the coin tosses themselves do not show any remarkable statistical properties. It's the correlation between the calls and the tosses that show them.

Lets look at the coin tosses themselves. I've listed below the results of the last 60 coin tosses:

T H H T T H H H T T H H T H H T H T T T T T H H H H H H H T H H H T T H T T T T T T T T T H H H H H H T H H H T H T H H

This series of 60 tosses contains runs of 6 heads, 7 heads, and 9 tails.
Can anyone calculate the chances of that happening?
I did my own 60 tosses and all I got was two runs of 4 tails.

Therefore, if you get as far as applying, it would seem logical that you should formulate your claim along the lines of being able to predict the outcome of random events, rather than being able to influence the outcome of random events.

TM does not claim to predict the outcome, he claims to be able to influence them.
You must test the claimant on what he says he can do, not what you think he should be able to do based on what he says he can do.
Why is that so hard to understand?

 

[BillyJoe]

Jim, I am earnestly trying to open an honest dialogue with you.

..what I would rather is hear your thoughts about what it is about you that compells you to think that random, everyday events have a special significance for you.

The above two statements are in conflict. It reminds me of the question: "When did you stop beating your wife?" It is not an earnest or honest question in my opinion. It is an insult.

I am sorry to say that it is my opinion that even the people "helping" you to create a protocol are just setting you up to see you fail.

And that's an insult as well.