Changes To The Challenge

[andyandy]

i've only just read the last page of this thread, so forgive me if i'm covering old ground - or if i have misunderstood - but an individual being able to significantly achieve a greater number of (say) heads over tails really isn't that impressive - i can do it to about 60% of the time - which iterated over a large trial is very significant indeed - and that was just by spending a (quiet ) couple of hours practising.....with a bit of practise, if you lay the coin facing the same way, you can control the height which it's tossed in the air with a good degree of accuracy, and also the number of rotations. Catch it at the same height each time and you'll easily be able to beat the 50;50 odds....

If the coin was being tossed by a random coin tossing generator....now then i'd be impressed

 

[Jim_Mich]

andyandy, the coin is NOT being caught. Also the start position of the coin is NOT known.


Jim_Mich

 

[Jim_Mich]

Therefore, if you get as far as applying, it would seem logical that you should formulate your claim along the lines of being able to predict the outcome of random events, rather than being able to influence the outcome of random events.

No, I don't think that I "predict" the outcome. It's more like I "influence" the out come. You might equate it to praying but there's no deity involved. I don't try to figure out how an event will happen and I don't "ask" for something to happen. Instead I think positively that it will happen then I believe and expect it to happen. I cap it off with an emotional feeling. This usually sets things in motion for the event to happen.

Many times the desired event involves other people. These other people also desire certain events to happen. They may be influencing the outcome also without even realizing it. And of course there are all the actual physical things that people do all the time to affect events. At times one person's desire may affect (in a woo way) what another person does. Now maybe this is just caused by chance and maybe it isn't? Which brings me full circle back to, "How would you ever be able to prove such things?" and this is the reason for trying to do it with coin tosses.
I really don't see any reason how any individual could "physically" control the outcome of a coin tossed in the manner in which I toss it. If a mechanical or electronic coin tosser were to be required then I would need to reassess things.

Jim_Mich

 

[Reager]

If a mechanical or electronic coin tosser were to be required then I would need to reassess things.

Jim_Mich

I don't know what the JREF would require, but I can't imagine they would allow you to toss the coin yourself. For all they (and we) know, you are an expert coin-tosser. Using a mechanical device to toss the coin would standardize the coin tossing process and eliminate any unconscious (or conscious) bias caused by "human flipping." Presumably your powers are not predicated upon the coin being flipped by your own hand, correct?

 

[Startz]

I really don't see any reason how any individual could "physically" control the outcome of a coin tossed in the manner in which I toss it. If a mechanical or electronic coin tosser were to be required then I would need to reassess things.

Jim_Mich

Would it work for you to have another person (one you select) toss the coin under conditions in which you don't communicate with the person tossing during the test?
-Dick Startz

 

[Jim_Mich]

Reager,

Is there any imaginable way to physically control the outcome of a coin flipped in the manner in which I flip it? The coin is placed resting on finger and thumb. I don't even know or want to know which side is up. Then the thumb is flipped tossing the coin at a very rapid spin rate and it falls onto a piece of carpet to keep if from bouncing. If you think there is any way to physically control which side turns up then you're more whacko than you realize.


Jim_Mich

 

[Reager]

Reager,

Is there any imaginable way to physically control the outcome of a coin flipped in the manner in which I flip it? The coin is placed resting on finger and thumb. I don't even know or want to know which side is up. Then the thumb is flipped tossing the coin at a very rapid spin rate and it falls onto a piece of carpet to keep if from bouncing. If you think there is any way to physically control which side turns up then you're more whacko than you realize.


Jim_Mich

I am not doubting your integrity, but for all I know there *is* a way to bias the flipping of a coin. This bias does not have to be conscious, the flipper may be unaware of how they are physically (not psychically) influencing the coin. If you were putting up a million dollars, wouldn't you want to insure the test is as foolproof as possible? You've given no indication - so far - that your power to influence the coin is dependant upon it bein flipped by a human being, so what is the problem with eliminating the human factor when flipping the coin?

 

[Jim_Mich]

Let's not move the goal posts! I know what I can do. And it seems that I can demonstrate what I can do. I would think it would be up to the JREF to show and prove any logical normal explaination.

Jim_Mich

 

[Thabiguy]

Is there any imaginable way to physically control the outcome of a coin flipped in the manner in which I flip it?

Read here. Former magician Persi Diaconis is said to be able to get a desired outcome by flipping the coin, 10 times out of ten. - I'm not saying that you're doing this. I'm saying that because of these facts, it is very unlikely that JREF will let you toss your coin. (They would be out of their mind if they did. What if Diaconis applied?)

If your goal is to apply for the prize (I assume that; after all, the million would be a great help in developing the PMM), my suggestion is that you consider something that won't raise these concerns.

 

[Thabiguy]

I would think it would be up to the JREF to show and prove any logical normal explaination.

I'm afraid that's not how it work. It's not a game of, "I'll show you a magic trick and if you can't figure out how I'm doing it, you'll pay me a million". It's, "you make a claim, we both agree on a protocol demonstrating this claim, which, to our satisfaction, rules out any trickery, and if you are able to do it under these conditions, you get the million".

 

[Reager]

Let's not move the goal posts! I know what I can do.

I am not moving goalposts. Perhaps you should look up what that phrase means. I am trying to help formulate a protocol that eliminates non-psychic fators which would influence the coin toss. Tossing the coin yourself makes it extremely difficult to determine whether your "psychic powers" alone are causing the coin to land either heads or tails.

And it seems that I can demonstrate what I can do. I would think it would be up to the JREF to show and prove any logical normal explaination.

Wrong, it is up to you to prove that you have psychic abilities, not up to the JREF to disprove them (see Thabiguy's post above). It seems eminently plausible that the outcome of a coin flip can be influenced through non-psychic means. No one in their right mind would put a million dollars on the line and not put controls in place to eliminate that possiblity (certainly Randi wouldn't).

 

[Dan O.]

I don't buy it. You'd have to be pretty out there to mistake a head for a tail. If JM pictures heads in his mind in attempting to will the coin to land heads and he walks over and it's tails, I think he will see tails like the rest of us. I have yet to see any evidence of mental illness in JM's posts.

You need to learn a lot more about the power of suggestion and visual perception if you expect to be a credible witness to for paranormal tests. Yes, I would agree that it would take a considerable skill to override the visual input with a projected mental image. But considering that most of us do that every night it's a latent talent and not something that can be ruled out by saying the subject would have to show signs of mental illness.

In Star Trek "Chain of Command", Picard admitted that at the end he actually did see 5 lights. Are you saying that this is a load of crock and such things don't happen?

 

[Jim_Mich]

From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coin_flipping#Physics_of_coin_flipping

Experimental and theoretical analysis of coin tossing has shown that the outcome is predictable, to some degree at least, if the initial conditions of the toss (position, velocity and angular momentum) are known. Coin tossing may be modeled as a problem in Lagrangian mechanics. The important aspects are the tumbling motion of the coin, the precession (wobbling) of its axis, and whether the coin bounces at the end of its trajectory.

The outcome of coin flipping has been studied by Persi Diaconis and his collaborators. They have demonstrated that a mechanical coin flipper which imparts the same initial conditions for every toss has a highly predictable outcome — the phase space is fairly regular.

Moreover, they have demonstrated both mathematically and experimentally that the underlying physics of coin tosses appears to have a slight bias for a caught coin to be caught the same way up as it was thrown, with a probability of around 0.51. Stage magicians and gamblers, with practice, are able to greatly increase this bias, whilst still making throws which are visually indistinguishable from normal throws.

Since the images on the two sides of actual coins are made of raised metal, the toss is likely to slightly favor one face or the other. This is particularly true if the coin is allowed to roll on one edge upon landing; coin spinning is much more likely to be biased than flipping, and conjurers trim the edges of coins so that when spun they usually land on a particular face.

Although it is extremely rare, there is an extremely slight possibility that a coin will come to rest on its edge (estimated at roughly 1/6000 for a U.S. nickel). If the coin remains on its edge, while it may cause temporary distraction, the only fair course of action would be to toss the coin again.

The above article says that coin tosses may be predictable and then lists the conditions. If the position, velocity and angular momentum of the toss is known! Lets first look at position. My hand is held out in a very variable position. The coin velocity varies with each flip due to the random position of the thumb against the finger before enough pressure gets applied to cause it to slip off the finger and hit the coin. The actual angle that the coin leaves the finger it totally random based on how the coin happens to be placed which is done with eyes closed.

Persi Diaconis demonstrated a mechanical flipper, which is what I want to avoid exactly because it can be biased. They show a very slight bias in caught coins, which is why I don't catch the coin! The differences in images on the coin affect how it rolls on a surface. This is why I have the coin fall on a carpet, so it can't roll. The coins used are U.S. quarters and anyone defacing them by trimming the edges is breaking federal law. The chance of landing a coin on edge on the carpet would be near impossible unless the carpet is shag.

Jim_Mich

 

[Reager]

From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coin_flipping#Physics_of_coin_flipping
The above article says that coin tosses may be predictable and then lists the conditions. If the position, velocity and angular momentum of the toss is known! Lets first look at position. My hand is held out in a very variable position. The coin velocity varies with each flip due to the random position of the thumb against the finger before enough pressure gets applied to cause it to slip off the finger and hit the coin. The actual angle that the coin leaves the finger it totally random based on how the coin happens to be placed which is done with eyes closed.

Persi Diaconis demonstrated a mechanical flipper, which is what I want to avoid exactly because it can be biased. They show a very slight bias in caught coins, which is why I don't catch the coin! The differences in images on the coin affect how it rolls on a surface. This is why I have the coin fall on a carpet, so it can't roll. The coins used are U.S. quarters and anyone defacing them by trimming the edges is breaking federal law. The chance of landing a coin on edge on the carpet would be near impossible unless the carpet is shag.

Jim_Mich

You are missing the point entirely. Using a mechanical coin-flipper that gives a predictable result every time is EXACTLY what you want to use. That way, the ONLY factor that would influence the coin flip would be your psychic abilities. Flipping the coin with your hand (or anyone's hand) introduces a host of influences that can change from coin flip to coin flip (amount of force, random pressure, sweat, angle of coin flip, etc...) and makes it significantly more difficult to isolate whether your "powers" are actually influencing the coin or whether it's something else.

 

[Thabiguy]

Jim, can you explain something to me?

You seem to have gone to great lengths to try to ensure that the toin coss is fair. You argue that the conditions that you have set for yourself make it too difficult to "physically" control the outcome of the toss. You insist that the initial conditions of the toss are random and cannot be controlled by you.

And yet, you say that you are able to control the outcome of the toss.

So what do you claim: Do you claim that you can influence the outcome of a coin toss, even if the initial conditions are random? Or do you claim that you can reduce the randomness of these initial conditions, even if it seems so hard to do?

There doesn't seem to be anything paranormal about the latter claim; it's just claiming that you can do a clever trick.

If you claim the former, then why do you have such a problem with adopting some kind of control that would assure that the initial conditions are truly random? Isn't that what you've been trying to ensure all along? Why is this a problem, Jim?

 

[Jim_Mich]

Maybe it's because in the past the events that I've effected usually involved people. I don't know if I can control totally mechanical events.

My first expeience involve getting a teacher to pick my table earlier than the other tables. This was in 1st or 2nd grade (I had the same teacher for both grades). Finding a wallet in a big field involved myself. Not getting a speeding ticket involved the officer and the poor other driver. I'm trying to think off any incident that didn't involve people.

Jim_Mich

 

[Dan O.]

If your goal is to apply for the prize (I assume that; after all, the million would be a great help in developing the PMM), my suggestion is that you consider something that won't raise these concerns.

Speaking of raising concerns. If Jim actually takes the challenge with this claim and wins the million, nobody is going to accept his claim for the PMM since he could just be willing it to run. If an investor were to throw down 10 Billion for the rights Jim would stop believing in the PMM and start believing in personal luxury. The PMM would then stop working and the investor would have nothing.

 

[timokay]

timokay,

You ask if I could ever be convinced that I have been mistaken and that I don't have this power. Could you ever be convinced that you have been mistaken and that you don't have the power to hear, see or talk? Anyone without these senses might be very skeptical of such claimed abilities.

Jim_Mich

I can see, hear and talk with 100% success every time. I can demonstrate it easily to anyone, anywhere, anytime.

You have a "power" that you have to develop a test for to even demonstrate it reliably to yourself.

See the difference?

 

[Jim_Mich]

I don't think think I telekinetic!



Jim_Mich

 

[Thabiguy]

Maybe it's because in the past the events that I've effected usually involved people. I don't know if I can control totally mechanical events.

That's not a problem, even with a restriction like this, it could be easily worked into a perfectly usable claim.

For example, could you, through intense belief that you'll succeed, make yourself correctly identify which one of two cups has a coin hidden under it - just like you did it with the wallet in the field? This seems well within the limits of your powers as you described them, or am I wrong? And it doesn't involve any mechanical event, does it?

ETA: Of course, you could make it 10 cups instead of 2 and greatly reduce the number of trials required to beat the odds.