Changes To The Challenge

[The Atheist]

Again, instead of complaining and coming up with excuses why you can't prove your claims to skeptics, why dont you at least TRY to prove them. Work with some on this forum who are suggesting proper protocols, and apply for the challenge.

Reager. Come on, you know that's not how the game goes, otherwise we'd have a thread that looked like this:

SFB paranormalist: "I can influence coin tosses with my mind!"

JREF Forumite: "Bull###t! Prove it.

SFB Paranormalist: "I have attached my webcam details. When you log in, I will toss a coin twenty times and get twenty heads."

..... ten minutes later ....

JREF Forumite: "Nice try, but fourteen heads and six tails ain't going to do it, sorry."

No-much-wiser-paranormalist: "Damn, I was so sure I could do it. Maybe my powers aren't that paranormal after all."

5 posts, thread over.

That wouldn't be playing the game at all. Far better to come in, spout BS, keeping one's hand on the small prize and kidding themselves that they are first person in all recorded history to have a paranormal ability.

Continue.

Note for Jim Mich:

There have been literally thousands of people who have come in and claimed a paranormal ability.

But yours is the first one which is real.

Yeah, right.

Jimmy, let me lend you my meter for testing paranormal claims. Use this wisely and you'll never get caught out again.

Cheers

 

[GzuzKryzt]

I've just finished reading through all the longer threads in the challenges forum. There are some common themes that come through from the test protocol.
...
Another common theme is to change the test at the last minute. Some may assume that this is an attempt to throw the applicant off balance. But these changes are often necessary to eliminate problems in the test.
...

Welcome to the JREF Forum, Dan O.

By whom and in which threads/claims exactly have there been instances of a "change the test at the last minute"?
Do you attribute this change solely to the refinement of the protocol and for the purpose of a valid test, or do you infer/insinuate a hassle by the one demanding the change?

 

[robinson]

So, have there been any changes to the challenge?

 

[timokay]

Jim_Mich,
I see the merit of working out a protocol for your power, but you have expressed concern when demonstrating it in front of people.

You will likely have to do this eventually, in order to be tested.

My questions is, has anyone else ever acknowledged that you have this power? Have you even been able to clearly demonstrate it to anyone else? And I do not mean a one time event, like talking about someone, and then picking up the phone and that person is on the line. I am asking if you have ever walked up and said, "Look, I can do this amazing thing." And then showed it to someone.

Also, could you ever be convinced that you have been mistaken, and you do not have this power?

 

[BillyJoe]

...April 1st, you fool!

(sorry couldn't resist,robinson - oops. someone else got in there between us)

 

[BillyJoe]

Jim_Mich,
I see the merit of working out a protocol for your power, but you have expressed concern when demonstrating it in front of people.

You will likely have to do this eventually, in order to be tested.

My questions is, has anyone else ever acknowledged that you have this power? Have you even been able to clearly demonstrate it to anyone else? And I do not mean a one time event, like talking about someone, and then picking up the phone and that person is on the line. I am asking if you have ever walked up and said, "Look, I can do this amazing thing." And then showed it to someone.

Also, could you ever be convinced that you have been mistaken, and you do not have this power?

You are jumping the gun. For the moment JM is attempting to prove to himself that he can affect the toss of a coin. Let's just jump that hurdle first. There should be no preblem for him to do this on his own with no distractions. He is demonstrating a willingness to test his powers. I think that is a good start. Whether, in the end, he will accept that he cannot do this, if that's the way it turns out , we will just have to wait to see. What purpose does it serve to ask this in the middle of his tests. So far he has 17/22, including the two he tried when he was tired and the two his wife tossed (I'm including them because I warned him not to do this and he went ahead a did it anyway, so he'll just have to accept the consequences ). Not a bad start in any case. Also. if you read his posts, not even his wife knows he has this power. My experience is that your wife is always the first to know.

 

[BillyJoe]

Reager. Come on, you know that's not how the game goes, otherwise we'd have a thread that looked like this:

blah, blah, blah...

That wouldn't be playing the game at all. Far better to come in, spout BS, keeping one's hand on the small prize and kidding themselves that they are first person in all recorded history to have a paranormal ability.

Continue.

Note for Jim Mich:

There have been literally thousands of people who have come in and claimed a paranormal ability.

But yours is the first one which is real.

Yeah, right.

Jimmy, let me lend you my meter for testing paranormal claims. Use this wisely and you'll never get caught out again.

We are not interested in your generalisations about paranormal claims and paranormal claimants and what usually happens in cases such as these.

Here we have an individual who has a claim that he is willing to test. He has accepted a protocol suggested to him and he is proceding to test himself using that protocol.

What purpose your post serves in these circumstances is completely beyond my understanding.

regards,
BillyJoe

 

[timokay]

You are jumping the gun. For the moment JM is attempting to prove to himself that he can affect the toss of a coin. Let's just jump that hurdle first. There should be no preblem for him to do this on his own with no distractions. He is demonstrating a willingness to test his powers. I think that is a good start. Whether, in the end, he will accept that he cannot do this, if that's the way it turns out , we will just have to wait to see. What purpose does it serve to ask this in the middle of his tests. So far he has 17/22, including the two he tried when he was tired and the two his wife tossed (I'm including them because I warned him not to do this and he went ahead a did it anyway, so he'll just have to accept the consequences ). Not a bad start in any case. Also. if you read his posts, not even his wife knows he has this power. My experience is that your wife is always the first to know.

And I propose that Jim is already convinced that he has a power, and left alone to do any test, he is reinforcing this belief. He will do test after test until he gets a result he likes, and then we will be back where we started, with a person who is convinced already.

I think it is more productive to propose that Jim attempt to challenge his belief in his power, by engaging outside people whom he trusts, to give him honest feedback, and hopefully, some insight.

He sounds like an earnest guy, and I think that we tend to poke sticks at this type until it is not fun anymore.

 

[Jim_Mich]

timokay,
Like I said a while back, I've never told anyone until now, not even my wife of almost 40 years. Knowing that you can do something is one thing. Devising a way to prove it is much more difficult. I never thought of it as an 'amazing' thing. I started using it when I was too young to understand that such things are not supposed to be possible. When I got old enough to understand I decided it was in my best interest to not talk about it. When I was young this ability was not as well developed. Even now I cannot guarantee that it will work every time.

You ask if I could ever be convinced that I have been mistaken and that I don't have this power. Could you ever be convinced that you have been mistaken and that you don't have the power to hear, see or talk? Anyone without these senses might be very skeptical of such claimed abilities.

So far today I've tossed the coin 12 times...

Set 03 on 02/14/2007 at 10:12 am to 10:18 am
Want Heads
Results: T H H H

Set 04 on 02/14/2007 at 2:20 pm to 2:23 pm
Want Tails
Results: T H T T
Note: 2nd toss coin bounced and came to rest on top of foot.

Set 05 on 02/14/2007 at 3:56 pm to 3:59 pm
Want Heads
Results: H H H T

Jim_Mich

 

[BillyJoe]

Before you reveal the results of each trial you should record your level of confidence that you were successful.

JM has said he can get 90%

Another common theme is to change the test at the last minute. Some may assume that this is an attempt to throw the applicant off balance. But these changes are often necessary to eliminate problems in the test.

JM is following the protocol suggested in this thread without complaint - except that he wishes to record when, after he tosses the coin, he loses concentration before the coin stops

For instance, in flipping a coin you have the problem of lost coins, coins landing on edge, being able to feel the coin before flipping it, and then each coin has to be viewed and recorded before the next trial. A change that might be requested would be to roll dice in an opaque cup instead.

You must test the claimant on what he says he can do not on what you extrapolate he should be able to so given what he says he can do. This is the focus of many reasons why previous claimants say they failed the test. Just test them on what they say they can do and you eliminate this problem.

This would have the advantage that with multiple cups and dies you could complete a set of trials before revealing any of the results. You could then record if you will be counting the set or not before lifting any of the cups.

This is so the claimant will not get discouraged by failed attempts. Or so that he will not try to guess the next result based on the previous result. For example it's less likely that the next piece of gold will be placed under the cup where the previous one was placed (wroing as this may be). I don't think it applies here except that JM is likely to abandom this test if it becomes clear that he is failing. The reason he gives - if that happens - we will just have to wait and see - if he does fail the test. So far 17/22 is not bad.

And one last thing to think about: When you are concentrating on controlling the outcome of the coin flip and in you mind deciding on which side the coin will land, is it your mind controlling the actions of the coin or is the coin controlling the thoughts in your mind?

You are not serious.....are you???

 

[Jim_Mich]

is it your mind controlling the actions of the coin or is the coin controlling the thoughts in your mind?

I don't know how the coin could control thoughts in my mind.

Allowing me to call heads or tails and then flipping produced better results than trying to flip 4 heads then 4 tails, etc.

Jim_Mich

 

[ChristineR]

I'm here at GzuzKryzt's request and I haven't read through all 14 pages (yet).

Anyhow, here is how to calculate the odds for 20 coin flips.

There are 2^20 possible outcomes = 1048576

There is but 1 way to get 20 correct. 1
There are 20 ways to get 19 correct (to miss one) 20
There are 20 * 19 / 2! ways to get 18. 140
There are 20 * 19 * 18 / 3! ways to get 17 1140
There are 20 * 19 * 18 * 17/4! ways to get 16 4845

So the chances of getting 16 of 20 are (1+20+140+1140+4845) / 1048576 = .0059...about 1 in 170

The chances of getting 17 of 20 are .00124 or 1 in 805.

Carina Landin was given a limit of 16 of 20, which is quite a bit easier than 1 in a thousand, but she is a celebrity, so I don't know if the JREF would go easier on her because of that. Of course that was just for the preliminary test.

I would aim for 17 of 20.

 

[ChristineR]

I have known several people who could get 20 of 20 by sleight of hand or by special coin flip techniques. I doubt if the JREF will allow Jim to flip his own coins.

 

[Dan O.]

By whom and in which threads/claims exactly have there been instances of a "change the test at the last minute"?
Do you attribute this change solely to the refinement of the protocol and for the purpose of a valid test, or do you infer/insinuate a hassle by the one demanding the change?

Saying "last minute" is probably way too strong since the changes were always in the negotiation phase. But it could appear to the applicant to be a last minute change if they initially prepare for one test and then are convinced to switch to another. It would be better for the applicant to know ahead of time what would best demonstrate their abilities and to remove factors that could invalidate the test.

The changes I saw in the challenges were all appropriate to insure a valid test. I just thought they should have been brought up earlier in the negotiations. Having read the challenges in reverse chronological order probably gave me foresight when the same patterns came up in earlier threads.

 

[Jim_Mich]

Thanks Christine!
It's been more than ten years since I used these formulas and it all comes back to me now. You did make a small mistake...

There are 20 * 19 / 2! ways to get 18. 140 (this should be 190)

Which carried over into here also...

The chances of getting 17 of 20 are .00124 or 1 in 805. (this should be 776)

As far as I can determine in order to meet odds of 1000:1 or better requires the following:
0 wrong out of 10 tosses = 1:1024 odds ~ 100%
1 wrong out of 14 tosses = 1:1092 odds ~ 92.86%
2 wrong out of 18 tosses = 1:1524 odds ~ 88.89%
3 wrong out of 21 tosses = 1:1343 odds ~ 85.71%
4 wrong out of 24 tosses = 1:1295 odds ~ 83.33%
5 wrong out of 27 tosses = 1:1321 odds ~ 81.48%
6 wrong out of 30 tosses = 1:1398 odds ~ 80.00%
7 wrong out of 33 tosses = 1:1517 odds ~ 78.79%
8 wrong out of 35 tosses = 1:1065 odds ~ 77.14%
9 wrong out of 38 tosses = 1:1206 odds ~ 76.32%
10 wrong out of 41 tosses = 1:1379 odds ~ 75.61%
20 wrong out of 66 tosses = 1:1076 odds ~ 69.70%
34 wrong out of 100 tosses = 1:1117 odds ~ 66%

I took the above and just reduced the tosses by 1:
0 wrong out of 9 tosses = 1:512 odds ~ 100%
1 wrong out of 13 tosses = 1:585 odds ~ 92.31%
2 wrong out of 17 tosses = 1:851 odds ~ 88.24%
3 wrong out of 20 tosses = 1:776 odds ~ 85%
4 wrong out of 23 tosses = 1:769 odds ~ 82.61%
5 wrong out of 26 tosses = 1:802 odds ~ 80.77%
6 wrong out of 29 tosses = 1:863 odds ~ 79.31%
7 wrong out of 32 tosses = 1:951 odds ~ 78.13%
8 wrong out of 34 tosses = 1:681 odds ~ 76.47%
9 wrong out of 37 tosses = 1:780 odds ~ 75.68%
10 wrong out of 40 tosses = 1:900 odds ~ 75%
20 wrong out of 65 tosses = 1:762 odds ~ 69.23%
34 wrong out of 99 tosses = 1:835 odds ~ 65.66%

I flip the coin onto a rug on the floor since catching a coin could be cause for concern. I also have my eyes closed while flipping then coin.
I'm thinking maybe a 4 ft x 4 ft x 1 ft deep carpet lined box might be appropriate to catch the coin? Then as long as the coin lands inside the box it would be considered good.

Jim_Mich

 

[BillyJoe]

I flip the coin onto a rug on the floor since catching a coin could be cause for concern.

Yes it would. I think your method is sound here.

I also have my eyes closed while flipping then coin.

If you have made the call before flipping the coin, this shouldn't really matter. However, it does introduce a semblance of "blinding" as I said before.

I'm thinking maybe a 4 ft x 4 ft x 1 ft deep carpet lined box might be appropriate to catch the coin? Then as long as the coin lands inside the box it would be considered good.

I don't think any coin toss should be excluded.

Why not make the box sufficiently large to make a miss impossible. Why have a box at all? What happens if the coin hits the side of the box? Will that interfere with the result? Keep it simple. Just flip onto the carpet. It can't be too hard to flip it so that it doesn't end up around your feet or the feet of the chair. If it does, just follow the protocol suggested earlier to ensure you do not upset the coin before you have determined which side it landed on.

 

[Dan O.]

I don't know how the coin could control thoughts in my mind.

That's exactly what others think about your ability to control the flip of a coin. Why are you right and they are wrong?

There are other possibilities that many think are more probable and don't violate what we know of the physical laws. If you can list what those factors are and devise a test that excludes them you will be in a much better position to discover the truth of your ability.

 

[BillyJoe]

...ah, got me, Dan!

 

[GimmePepsi]

[10] If I feel I cannot achieve the desired state of mind within about two minutes I will abort the group of four.

What, you're allowed to flip one, flip two, flip three, seeing all the results along the way, then decide you don't like how this group of four is going, and abort it and don't record it as a trial?

 

[The Atheist]

We are not interested in your generalisations about paranormal claims and paranormal claimants and what usually happens in cases such as these.

Here we have an individual who has a claim that he is willing to test. He has accepted a protocol suggested to him and he is proceding to test himself using that protocol.

What purpose your post serves in these circumstances is completely beyond my understanding.

regards,
BillyJoe

Well, being a free forum, that's just something you'll have to learn to live with as you pander to this latest court jester.

I prefer to sit with the borax box, poking a bit into the conversation every now and then.

What's your excuse?

Have you looked at it? This is a 60(ish) year old man who is kidding himself that he is telekinetic - or psychic, doesn't really matter - and you're proposing to help him test his abilities.

Sounds like fun.

I can do that in two words. Crown Casino.