Changes To The Challenge

[BillyJoe]

Or maybe the probabilities of the universe need to be maintained?

Interesting concept. In other words, if the you make your coins fall all heads, somewhere else in the universe other coins simultaneously are more likely to come up tails. But I think that unnecessarily complicates matters further. There is no "force" that makes things random. That's the way it happens when there is no "force". If you control a "force" which makes some coins always come up heads (if that's what you choose to do), there would have to be another "force", linked to yours, to cause other coins in the universe to come up tails. Ockham's razor.

 

[Cuddles]

Has anyone read the thread about "The Secret"? I get the distinct feeling that Jim has simply seen a silly film and taken it far too seriously.

 

[BillyJoe]

"I think many people have 'border line' paranormal powers." As such, trying to affect the outcome of events when someone else is involved pits my 'powers' against the other persons 'powers' and is harder to do. Of course they usually don't 'know' that they can have 'powers' to affect events.

You could find someone who is neutral as to the outcome.
On the other hand, you should be able to do it on your own. You would need to be scrupulously honest with yourself though. And you have to have a set protocol that will eliminate all variables other than your power.

Here is an example:


Never toss a coin at any time other than when you do a trial.
(This eliminates situations where you toss a coin but then decide you weren't ready)
Always toss the coin in the same environment with no distractions.
Toss the coin T times on each occasion.
(Your limit seems to be 6, so make it 4 to be sure you won't tire)
For simplicity, always make the coin come up heads.
(The sequence of all heads will be remarkable all on it's own)
(It also avoids situations where you may have forgotten what you picked)
Close you eyes.
(For blinding purposes )
Concentrate for S seconds.
(you seem to be succeeding with S = 30 to 60 seconds)
Simultaneously juggle the coin a few times.
(Not sure if this is essential - you could always feel which side is heads)
Without opening your eyes, toss the coin C centimeters vertically into the air.
(To be a fair toss, I think C would need to be greater than 30 centimeters)
(If you accidentally throw it less, still count the trial)
Allow the coin to drop unimpeded onto a flat surface.
(A tight-knit carpeted surface is good to prevent the coin rolling away)
When the coin stops, open your eyes and record the result.
(Do not open your eyes untill the coin comes to a complete rest)
Always record the result of every coin toss.

 

[BillyJoe]

Has anyone read the thread about "The Secret"? I get the distinct feeling that Jim has simply seen a silly film and taken it far too seriously.

Don't be silly. If you want to criticise the film, go to that thread. If you want to criticise JM, read what he says and criticise that. Or maybe help him sort through the variables.

 

[Cuddles]

Don't be silly. If you want to criticise the film, go to that thread. If you want to criticise JM, read what he says and criticise that. Or maybe help him sort through the variables.

Who's being silly? We have someone turning up here just after a film has turned up on the radar claiming to do exactly the same as happens in the film. Obviously only Jim can clear this up, but it seems far too much of a coincidence to me.

 

[Jim_Mich]

Cuddles, I've never seen the film "The Secret" and have no idea what it's about.

-----------------
BillyJoe, the second time I just added the details for how I flip the coins.

I flipped the coin using my thumb. It rises about 3 to 5 inches (7 to 13 cm) then falls about 3 feet (91 cm) onto a medium pile throw rug on the floor. I have my eyes closed and must then 'hunt' for the coin which sometimes bounces off the rug. The coin spins very rapidly in the air when I flip it.

If I were to call all heads or all tails then it might be remarkable but also might lead some to think that something is wrong with the coin or method of flipping. This is why I altered the calls.

Last night after posting I wanted to see how I could do while still a little mentally exhausted, so I tried two more flips. The the first one I realised that I'd lost my concentration just after I flipped but before the coin hit the floor. I'm not sure whether such a case should be counted or not. I suppose it should be decided ahead of time how to handle such. I called heads both times and the coin came up tails when I lost concentration and heads the second time.

Later last night I asked my wife to flip the coin for me. From the expression on her face I could tell she was a little irritated by such a foolish request. I called heads two times and she flipped tails. Then she said she needed to check her voice mail and that ended the test. I could speculate as to why I failed both flips with her but it would be just speculation. I've never told her about my 'power' but when we were young and first married I tried to 'control her' so as to control things in our life. She didn't like it and we soon came to an understanding that I don't tell her what to do and she doesn't tell me what to do. We don't fight or quarrel. We've been married almost 40 years now. The dynamics between us might prevent me from controlling her coin flips.

Jim_Mich

 

[steenkh]

The dynamics between us might prevent me from controlling her coin flips.

Perhaps you should concentrate on controlling the coin instead of controlling your wife?

 

[Reager]

In an attempt to get this thread back on topic, I'd just like to point out that Jim_Mich is precisely the sort of applicant that necessitated a change in the Challenge procedure. Maybe Jim_Mich can influence coin flips (sometimes), and find a missing wallet on the fourth try, and prevent mosquitos from biting him. Maybe he really has paranormal powers. But why should the JREF waste its valuable time attempting to test (and engaging in an endless dialogue about) such inconsistent and banal "abilities," especially when those abilities are such that the likelihood of self-deception is extremely high?

It should also be noted that nothing in the rule changes will prevent Jim_Mich from applying after April 1st, but he and others like him will have to make the least bit of effort to convince others of their abilities before the JREF will take them seriously. If someone truly has the paranormal powers of the variety most often claimed by Challenge applicants, it shouldn't be that tough.

 

[petre]

Last night after posting I wanted to see how I could do while still a little mentally exhausted, so I tried two more flips. The the first one I realised that I'd lost my concentration just after I flipped but before the coin hit the floor. I'm not sure whether such a case should be counted or not. I suppose it should be decided ahead of time how to handle such. I called heads both times and the coin came up tails when I lost concentration and heads the second time.

Jim_Mich

The wonderful thing about doing blinded controlled trials is that it doesn't matter if you fail to properly concentrate a few times, or even most of the time.

If you have any effect at all on any fraction of the flips, it will show up with a sufficient number of trials. Even if you only succeed on 1 out of every 10 flips, it'll be noticable after a hundred (or maybe a few hundred) flips.

You needn't worry about skeptics questioning your coin or flipping method, a lot of skeptics would probably believe you're just making it all up anyway and not even bothering to actually flip a coin in the first place. So go ahead and work on heads every time. If you do succeed in flipping a disproportionate number of heads, you can always test the coin later by doing additional trials without any attempt at influence at all and see if the same disproportionate numbers come up.

 

[Jim_Mich]

Reager, it seems you would prefer to never hear about people with paranormal abilities like myself; people that live a quiet life and don't make a stage show out of their abilities? Why should the JREF waste time attempting to test for abilities that you think just cannot exist? Maybe you're the one deceiving yourself into thinking that such banal (obvious and dull) "abilities" are not possible?

If someone truly has the paranormal powers of the variety most often claimed by Challenge applicants, it shouldn't be that tough.

Lets see you call and then flip ten coins in a row on your first attempt! It's been many years since I flipped any coins until it was suggested as a way to determine if my "abilities" were real or just a self deception. I would say that the probabilities against self deception are better than 1000 to 1 based on the coin flipping. If someone walked into a bowling alley and bowled a perfect game do you think it wouldn't be tough for them to do it?

Reager, would you like me to think some bad thoughts toward you? Maybe you could be a test subject target? Would that change your attitude? No, you would just attribute your misfortune to bad luck or chance. How can the probability of your single bad incident ever be determined?

The JREF can and will do as they please. But by throwing more obstacles in the path of quiet ordinary people the JREF has reduced the odds of ever finding anyone with real abilities.

Jim_Mich

 

[Cuddles]

Cuddles, I've never seen the film "The Secret" and have no idea what it's about.

The fact that you claim to have no idea what it's about suggests you didn't follow my link to the thread. If you had bothered to read it, you would see that it is about exactly what you are claiming. You would also see that it is a complete load of cow poo. You are in no way the first person to think you could influence the world mentally. You are in no way the first person to be wrong.

 

[Reager]

Reager, it seems you would prefer to never hear about people with paranormal abilities like myself; people that live a quiet life and don't make a stage show out of their abilities? Why should the JREF waste time attempting to test for abilities that you think just cannot exist? Maybe you're the one deceiving yourself into thinking that such banal (obvious and dull) "abilities" are not possible?

I never said they weren't possible. In fact, I specifically acknolwedged the possibility. But my beliefs are irrelevant to whether you have psychic powers and to the purpose of the MDC, which is what I was addressing. The purpose of the MDC is not, and has never been, to "find" people such as yourself who may have paranormal abilities. Reread this thread for posts addressing the primary purpose of the Challenge.

Lets see you call and then flip ten coins in a row on your first attempt! It's been many years since I flipped any coins until it was suggested as a way to determine if my "abilities" were real or just a self deception. I would say that the probabilities against self deception are better than 1000 to 1 based on the coin flipping. If someone walked into a bowling alley and bowled a perfect game do you think it wouldn't be tough for them to do it?

Getting a might defensive, aren't we? My post simply pointed out that dealing with applicants such as yourself has historically been a waste of the JREF's time and manpower, given the minute benefits thusfar acheived, and how the new Challenge procedure is a better way for the JREF to spend its time. That you are insulted by this is unfortunate, but it does not change the fact that you offer the JREF little and will probably expect much hand-holding and attention in return (if this thread is any indication), which would only be a drain on the JREF's resources.

Reager, would you like me to think some bad thoughts toward you? Maybe you could be a test subject target? Would that change your attitude? No, you would just attribute your misfortune to bad luck or chance. How can the probability of your single bad incident ever be determined?

That you would offer to "test" your abilities on a fellow human being in such a manner says much about yourself, Jim_Mich...and what it says is not pretty.

The JREF can and will do as they please. But by throwing more obstacles in the path of quiet ordinary people the JREF has reduced the odds of ever finding anyone with real abilities.

Jim_Mich

Instead of complaining, why don't you put forth some effort and win a local skeptic's challenge. Or call your local TV station and convince them of your abilities? Or contact the physics professor at your local college? Or, fill out an application before April 1st. There's a million dollars in it for you if you do. Will you?

 

[GzuzKryzt]

...
Instead of complaining, why don't you put forth some effort and win a local skeptic's challenge. Or call your local TV station and convince them of your abilities? Or contact the physics professor at your local college? Or, fill out an application before April 1st. There's a million dollars in it for you if you do. Will you?

I was going to ask the same, Reager. Will you apply, Jim_Mich?

 

[Tricky]

Every single loony who has turned up for a preliminary test has gone away with their heads down.

Actually, that's not completely true. I recall that at least one of the dowsers in the Australian test said, when interviewed afterwards, "I guess I was wrong". That man can hold his head high.

 

[Jim_Mich]

Good grief Cuddles! I said I had no idea what the film was about since I'd never seen nor heard about the film. Later I went to the thread you posted and read about it. Many years ago I read the book "Think and Grow Rich" and "The Power of Positive Thinking." and other "self help" type books that I no longer remember the titles of. I don't think this thread is the place to discuss "The Secret."

 

[Tricky]

Has anyone read the thread about "The Secret"? I get the distinct feeling that Jim has simply seen a silly film and taken it far too seriously.

Back in the 70's I read Report on the Barnhouse Effect by Kurt Vonnegut about a man who used "dynamopsychism" to influence the roll of dice, and eventually other things, and I thought, "That would be so cool!" At the time (I was pretty much a woo woo back then) I thought it made sense and I figured it was just a matter of time before this effect was actually discovered. But alas, Vonnegut was using sci-fi as philosophical device (something he does so well). There's no such thing as Ice-nine either, but I'm pretty much glad about that.

 

[The Atheist]

Actually, that's not completely true. I recall that at least one of the dowsers in the Australian test said, when interviewed afterwards, "I guess I was wrong". That man can hold his head high.

Certainly - a prince among puppets.

 

[Jim_Mich]

The Foundation is committed to providing reliable information about paranormal claims. It both supports and conducts original research into such claims.

How reliable is JREF's one sided information about paranormal claims? If the JREF chooses to 'go after' only famous people then it is no longer conducting research, but is instead becoming a tool of persecution.

Will you apply, Jim_Mich?

And what would my claim be? Maybe, "I can influence events when I really need and want to." And how am I to demonstrate such a wild ass claim? Maybe, "Most of the time I can cause quarters to land heads or tails according to what I call before the flip." Then we get down to the details of proving it. There is no way I can influence hundreds of coin tosses. It would be like bowling hundreds of games. So then proving the claim of influencing events deteriorates into trying to beat the odds of coin flipping and we loose sight of the original claim.

Reager, I'm sorry. I get tired of you skeptics being so rude and elitist. That you would call someone’s abilities "banal" and "inconsistent" and likely to be "self-deception" says a lot about you. And then you say...

If someone truly has the paranormal powers of the variety most often claimed by Challenge applicants, it shouldn't be that tough.

The tough part is setting up a test. If you're so smart how would you go about proving the ability to influence events once a feeling of complete confidence is felt which can only be achieved a few times in a row before exhausting the ability? How would you prove such a wild ass claim? You seem to think that if someone really has such abilities all they need do is snap their fingers and 'poof' things should happen. The more unbelievable the event the harder it is to believe strong enough to influence the event. Remember that before an event can be influenced one must believe that it can be influenced. Skeptics will never have such abilities and so they may never witness such events.

Jim_Mich

 

[BillyJoe]

If I were to call all heads or all tails then it might be remarkable but also might lead some to think that something is wrong with the coin or method of flipping. This is why I altered the calls.

Except that I am trying to work out how you would go about proving this thing to yourself.
I think it's important to prove it to yourself before ever attempting to prove it to others.
Trying for heads every time is a way of eliminating errors - such as forgetting what you wanted to throw. It's also looks much more impressive. Who's impressed with a series of throws that looks like this: HTTHTHHTHT aas opposed to HHHHHHHHHH

Also you disobeyed one of the rules by doing a trial while you were exhausted.
And another one by getting your wife to help.
I know they are not your rules, but they were my attempt to help.
I think you are unnecessarily complicating the way you're going about proving this thing.
Keep it simple.

 

[BillyJoe]

Lets see you call and then flip ten coins in a row on your first attempt! It's been many years since I flipped any coins until it was suggested as a way to determine if my "abilities" were real or just a self deception. I would say that the probabilities against self deception are better than 1000 to 1 based on the coin flipping.

If there were no methodological flaws, that was very impressive indeed.
They way to exclude methodological flaws is to repeat the experiment and see if you can replicate the result. The more often you replicate the result the more convinced you will be that the effect is real and that you have the power.
Pulling a black marble out of a jar containing one black and 999 white marbles is roughly the same odds as flipping a coin ten times and getting the all heads. But 1 in a thousand people will achieve this just by chance. But only 1 in a thousand of those who got it the first time will get it the second time. That's 1 in a million. Are you one of those?