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Changes To The Challenge

BTW, DA, one woo-woo I know here claims to have healed cancer using just essential oils and "psychic massage" (sic), but won't apply for the $1 million because she "won't be made to jump through hoops". Not even for a cool million dollars...

I am such a weak, pitiful loser. A disgrace to my family. Not only am I jumping through hoops on a daily basis for a load of contractors and my employer for a lot less money, and doing things much more unpleasant and pointless than healing cancer, I would also - without thought, hesitation, or remorse jump through the hoop of just putting up instead of shutting up for a sweet million bucks.

In fact, I have on occasion jumped through that hoop without actually opening my mouth first and without any money involved at all. Maybe it's a guy thing - but "betcha you can't ..." will often do the trick. (Maybe Randi's problem is that he's a bearded old guy and not some hot college chick, though? Bit I digress ...)

So, if this argument pops up: Ask these people if they have a day job. Ask them, if it's fulfilling, or if they are just jumping through hoops ...
 
Well, that's the point of controversy.

I believe the actual claim is that Randi -- usually not the foundation, but Randi himself -- cheats. He manages to use some form of sleight of hand to switch rulers, so that the obstacle measured at 5ft tall is really 8ft.

It's not that he cheats, per se, it's rather that the tests are very badly designed and run. The switch is not some secret move made during the test. It's done before the test, the applicant is told about it and required to agree to the switch. If he does not agree, he does not get tested, and Randi claims victory by default.

Case in point: Mike Guska claims the ability to find gold by dowsing in dried up creek beds in California. Randi offers instead to test his ability to find gold by dowsing under cups in the JREF office, Florida.

Almost all dowsers reject his switch. Most recognise the poor design of the test on offer, and refuse it. And they are right to do so.

Mike is one of the very few that agreed to the switch. This does not show the test is fair, it only shows that Mike is stupid. So, he took a test that was totally different to his actual claim, and failed. This says nothing at all about his dowsing skills.

Most of the tests run by Randi are similar, most are so badly done that the results prove nothing at all. The challenge he has issued to "find me a dry spot," for example, has a rather basic and obvious logical flaw in it. But in that instance the design flaw gives me a major advantage. I can take his challenge and win, not because I have any psychic power, but because Randi does not know how to run a proper test.
 
Case in point: Mike Guska claims the ability to find gold by dowsing in dried up creek beds in California. Randi offers instead to test his ability to find gold by dowsing under cups in the JREF office, Florida.

Almost all dowsers reject his switch. Most recognise the poor design of the test on offer, and refuse it. And they are right to do so.

Mike is one of the very few that agreed to the switch. This does not show the test is fair, it only shows that Mike is stupid. So, he took a test that was totally different to his actual claim, and failed. This says nothing at all about his dowsing skills.

He claimed to find hidden gold. He could not. He agreed that he should be able to find it under the cups. He could not. Therefore he failed. If he believed he could find the gold, what was stupid about agreeing to be tested? This says a lot about his dowsing skills. At the least, it shows that they do not work as he thinks, since he believed he could find the gold under the cups. If he got this wrong, why should we believe he got anything else right? If he now believes that he can only find gold under dry streambeds he is welcome to apply again. Amazingly, this hasn't happened.

What you either fail to understand, or are deliberately ignoring, is that the test only tests what is claimed. If someone claims to find hidden gold, the JREF says "Can you find it hidden under some cups?". If the applicant says yes then this is what is tested. If the applicant says no then different tests will be considered until one is found that the applicant agrees with. In fact, the JREF tests even less than they claim, since they almost always claim 100% success rate and the tests only require around 80%.
 
Case in point: Mike Guska claims the ability to find gold by dowsing in dried up creek beds in California. Randi offers instead to test his ability to find gold by dowsing under cups in the JREF office, Florida.
As far as I remember, Mike Guska did try it out before the test, and found that his ability was unimpaired under the new circumstances.

And many dowsers are tested under similar circumstances, in fact, dowsers are the group that are most tested of all paranormal groups. They are usually given a dry run to ensure that they feel that circumstances are all-right for their special abilities.

Do you have a better setup for testing dowsers?
 
It's not that he cheats, per se, it's rather that the tests are very badly designed and run. The switch is not some secret move made during the test. It's done before the test, the applicant is told about it and required to agree to the switch. If he does not agree, he does not get tested, and Randi claims victory by default.

Case in point: Mike Guska claims the ability to find gold by dowsing in dried up creek beds in California. Randi offers instead to test his ability to find gold by dowsing under cups in the JREF office, Florida.

The elephant in the room that you are ignoring is the open trial. The applicant gets to make sure their equipment is working before the test starts. Only when the open trails are successful do the move on to hiding the item to be dowsed for. Mike, just like the others who have been tested was able to dowse successfully during the open trial. But somehow it never seems to work once the dowser does not know ahead of time where things are.

If the protocols are so badly designed, then why does the open trial work? If you cannot explain that then you don't have a case for the protocol being a problem.

Also the people taking the challenge are free to propose new protocols. If you don't like the standard dowsing protocols then write a better one.

Or at least show us that program you claimed to have written sometime back.
 
Back to the changes. While reading just now, I imagined a televison ad, or a viral video circulating on YouTube, Google videos, etc, challenging pyschics to take the challenge.

In fact, I would be willing to do that. I can see it unfolding in my mind already.

Has there ever been an ad for the challenge? On TV?

The reason I think this is so cool, is that with viral videos, there is no cost for getting it played. In the past the cost was a killer, if you wanted real exposure. The YT revolution has put an end to that.
 
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As far as I remember, Mike Guska did try it out before the test, and found that his ability was unimpaired under the new circumstances.

And many dowsers are tested under similar circumstances, in fact, dowsers are the group that are most tested of all paranormal groups. They are usually given a dry run to ensure that they feel that circumstances are all-right for their special abilities.

Do you have a better setup for testing dowsers?
Let's also remember that Mike Guska showed up at JREF wanting to be tested there! So using him as an example of Randi cheating is pretty ridiculous.
 
I have stated in the past that the JREF challenge is meaningless, because it has a built in escape clause. JR might say "oops, seems I was wrong... it does work, but it's not paranormal" and refuse to pay.
It's not that (Randi) cheats, per se, it's rather that the tests are very badly designed and run. The switch is not some secret move made during the test. It's done before the test, the applicant is told about it and required to agree to the switch.
It seems you've changed your mind about the challenge. Why is that?
 
Yes, and why do you not prove your claim on your own, with a rigorous protocol agreed to by yourself and credible testers? No one's insisting you must do it to satisfy JR, us, or anyone in particular.

As things stand, you have zero credibility with me.

M.
 
Topic drift, but interesting

It's not that he cheats, per se, it's rather that the tests are very badly designed and run. The switch is not some secret move made during the test. It's done before the test, the applicant is told about it and required to agree to the switch. If he does not agree, he does not get tested, and Randi claims victory by default.

While we await the announced changes to the challenge, why not discuss the obvious here? I don't know if the above is a true statement. If it is, then it seems obvious there is some trickery going on, and since Randi is known as a master of such, that does not look good.

I have yet to find much in the way of published material about the working out of protocol. There is scant material that shows how the challenge works. In the sense of getting to the preliminary test. But I hope there actually is such material. I would like to read it. And it would prove there is no such trickery involved, as some would claim.

On the surface, the claim Peter makes seems valid. But I don't have all the information. This does not mean there is an alternative, as far as how to devise a test, but over many years, and with other people than Randi, I have experienced this exact problem, when it comes to testing people. The test ends up not being about what is claimed.

Now please don't get me wrong, I don't even believe in anything paranormal or magical. By that I mean I have no evidence for any irrational powers, magical events, or supernatural abilities. Period.

That I don't believe in something does not mean I change the way I investigate something. If somebody says they see an aura around people, and get information from that ability, I don't test them to see if they can see through walls, or divine where somebody is hiding. Because they don't claim to do that.

See? Its not hard to devise a test for some things. But dowsing, that is another issue. For somebody that claims there is an underground source of water, and that it flows from miles away, and that they can tell you where to drill, and how deep to find that water, that is far beyond the ability of the MDC to test.

(drift, but worth reading, tmot)

To test an outrageous claim like that, you would have to have the dowsers identify two locations where they thought underground streams were.

Then drill test boreholes at the precise coordinates specified.

You would have to drill to a depth just short of the predicted streams and then completely seal off the borehole with a cement plug and grouting to exclude shallower groundwater from entering the borehole.

Then drill to the final depth at which the streams were believed to exist.

All this would have to be observed throughout by interested parties and properly supervised.

Effective seals against shallower groundwater would have to be achieved.

The water chemistry, geology and the flow rates of groundwater throughout the borehole would have to be documented.

In addition special water samples to determine the number of heavy and light isotopes (the isotopic signature) would have to be taken throughout the borehole.

Only then would it be possible for scientists to conclude whether the water sampled at the depth fell as rain or whether it derived from a source far away.

This would have to be done at specialist laboratories.

THIS ALL COST A LOT OF MONEY
.

Clearly such an effort to DISPROVE something is not going to occur through a million dollar challenge. If somebody had divining abilities like that, they would be worth more than a million dollars. And if they had resources to actually carry out such an absurd plan, they wouldn't need the money. Maybe.

And in a purely practical sense, if they did hit water, where science had proved none could exist, they would be able to make money like crazy with such an ability. :wackywink:

But back to reality, and the changes to the challenge ......
 

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