Capture Osama By Election Day?

[BPSCG]

The conspiracy-theorists in our midst have been making dark predictions that the Bush administration would pull an "October surprise" and capture or kill Osama bin Laden just before the election.

Okay, it's getting close. Waddaya think? Voting ends November 1. No prizes.

 

[HarryKeogh]

nah, I voted 0-25%.

it would be so painfully obvious if they trotted him out before election day. plus if they had him held somewhere what would stop OBL from ratting them out? "these guys held me for months then paraded me out for political gain!"

a silly conspiracy in my book.

 

[Nyarlathotep]

I have to agree with Harry that an "October Surprise" at this late date would be so painfully obvious that it would do more harm than good. Say what you want about Bush's intellect (or lack thereof), but it takes a certain amount of brains to be such a weasel, and I think he is smart enough not to do something so boneheaded and bad for his campaign.

In fact, if I were president, if they captured Bin Ladin today I would be cringing at the potential backlash because the whole "They already have Bin Ladin and are keeping him on ice until the elections" rumor is so widespread that that is what a large portion of the populace would think, even if it wasn't true and they really did only just capture him.

 

[TragicMonkey]

In fact, if I were president, if they captured Bin Ladin today I would be cringing at the potential backlash because the whole "They already have Bin Ladin and are keeping him on ice until the elections" rumor is so widespread that that is what a large portion of the populace would think, even if it wasn't true and they really did only just capture him.

Politically, finding bin Laden's corpse would be a lot less problematic than finding bin Laden alive.

 

[aerocontrols]

nah, I voted 0-25%.

it would be so painfully obvious if they trotted him out before election day. plus if they had him held somewhere what would stop OBL from ratting them out? "these guys held me for months then paraded me out for political gain!"

a silly conspiracy in my book.

There's no option for 0%, so I'm not voting.

Your (obvious) point has been obvious since the first conspirazoid idiot ever thought of this theory. They would have to produce his dead body for the capture & reveal conspiracy to have any hope of working.


Finding the WMDs that we snuck into Iraq in the summer of 2003, however... one can do that anytime.

Since Bush is winning, I guess Rove is saving those for a distraction when Bush decides to reinstate the draft/end social security/invade France.

 

[Nyarlathotep]

Politically, finding bin Laden's corpse would be a lot less problematic than finding bin Laden alive.

I don't know. Do you think that if they killed Bin Ladin in a gunfight TODAY, that a lot of people wouldn't think that they actually killed him way back in 2002 in Tora Bora and that they had him in a freezer until now? Ithink they would and I think the meme has passed to enough people that the consequences would be...uncomfortable.

 

[Kerberos]

There's no option for 0%, so I'm not voting.

There's 0-25% both included, also I don't see how you could know with 100% certainty that they won't get him.

Since Bush is winning...

Since when? Last time I checked the race was tied.

 

[Rob Lister]

There's no option for 0%, so I'm not voting.

Your (obvious) point has been obvious since the first conspirazoid idiot ever thought of this theory. They would have to produce his dead body for the capture & reveal conspiracy to have any hope of working.

Your reasoning for refusing to vote is illogical because 0-25% includes zero. Additionally, the Zero vote is, in itself, illogical unless you think he already has been captured (confirming one conspiracy) or that they are not, in any way, looking for him (confirms another conspiracy).

Or perhaps I am mistaken. Please clarify.

 

[Kerberos]

I don't know. Do you think that if they killed Bin Ladin in a gunfight TODAY, that a lot of people wouldn't think that they actually killed him way back in 2002 in Tora Bora and that they had him in a freezer until now? Ithink they would and I think the meme has passed to enough people that the consequences would be...uncomfortable.

Unless they captured him 2 hours before the election began (which would make me suspicious), they should be able to let a doctor examine the body. I'm fairly certain that a doctor can tell the difference, between somebody who just died, and somebody who's been lying in a freezer for two years. Of course that's not saying that some crackpots wouldn't insist that the doctors were in league with the administration.

 

[Rob Lister]

I don't know. Do you think that if they killed Bin Ladin in a gunfight TODAY, that a lot of people wouldn't think that they actually killed him way back in 2002 in Tora Bora and that they had him in a freezer until now? Ithink they would and I think the meme has passed to enough people that the consequences would be...uncomfortable.

Hmmm. It's possible some people would think that. A better conspiracy theory would be that he was captured long ago but only recently killed.

But I wouldn't buy it. There is almost no way to ensure the truth wouldn't get out, and the consequences of it getting out would far exceed any gain.

Were that not so then the news of Saddam being captured would also have been squashed. And he too would be trotted out in a quite dead, yet fresh, fashion.

 

[Nyarlathotep]

Unless they captured him 2 hours before the election began (which would make me suspicious), they should be able to let a doctor examine the body. I'm fairly certain that a doctor can tell the difference, between somebody who just died, and somebody who's been lying in a freezer for two years. Of course that's not saying that some crackpots wouldn't insist that the doctors were in league with the administration.

Oh, I agree with you 100% that a doctor could tell the difference. But logic has never prevented the public from beleiving stupid things. it only takes a handful of vocal loonies to make it an issue on the news. And this race is so tight that those same vocal loonies could swing the election

I think it was PT Barnum who said "no one ever went broke by underestimating the gullibility of the public"

 

[Nyarlathotep]

Hmmm. It's possible some people would think that. A better conspiracy theory would be that he was captured long ago but only recently killed.

But I wouldn't buy it. There is almost no way to ensure the truth wouldn't get out, and the consequences of it getting out would far exceed any gain.

Were that not so then the news of Saddam being captured would also have been squashed. And he too would be trotted out in a quite dead, yet fresh, fashion.

Tht would work too.

BUt see waht I said to Kerberos about public gullibility. I think it applies here too.

 

[aerocontrols]

There's 0-25% both included, also I don't see how you could know with 100% certainty that they won't get him.

I believe he is dead. I realize that 0% is contained within the set [0,25) but I would prefer to vote for an option that merely says 0%. Since it costs me nothing not to vote in this poll, I won't.

Since when? Last time I checked the race was tied.

I would say that Bush has been ahead since about the middle or end of August

Here is a nice graph.

 

[Kerberos]

I believe he is dead. I realize that 0% is contained within the set [0,25) but I would prefer to vote for an option that merely says 0%. Since it costs me nothing not to vote in this poll, I won't.

how about voting "He's already on Planet X / Already dead / other"

 

[BPSCG]

I think it was PT Barnum who said "no one ever went broke by underestimating the gullibility of the public"

I can't speak for what Barnum may or may not have said, but the popular quote belongs to H.L. Mencken. It generally comes out as "Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public", but that's wrong, too. The correct quote is "Nobody ever went broke underestimating the taste of the American public."

And if you watch American TV with any regularity, you realize that if anything, Mencken was guilty of understatement.

 

[BPSCG]

I believe he is dead.

Why do you think that? I assume you believe we've been unable to recover the body, because why would we not produce it?

 

[aerocontrols]

how about voting "He's already on Planet X / Already dead / other"

I never read the Planet X option. Since you point it out, I'll cast my vote that direction.

 

[Nyarlathotep]

I can't speak for what Barnum may or may not have said, but the popular quote belongs to H.L. Mencken. It generally comes out as "Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public", but that's wrong, too. The correct quote is "Nobody ever went broke underestimating the taste of the American public."

And if you watch American TV with any regularity, you realize that if anything, Mencken was guilty of understatement.

You are probably right. I was going by memory and memory (especially MY memory) can be a faulty thing.

 

[aerocontrols]

Why do you think that? I assume you believe we've been unable to recover the body, because why would we not produce it?

I think he's dead because he suddenly stopped producing those "talk to you about the events of the day" videos after we bombed Tora Bora in Dec. 2001. Now all we get are old video footage with someone else narrating or audio that may or may not be him.

Likely, we haven't been able to produce the body because it's buried in some of the hundreds of caves we obliterated in Dec. of 2001.

It's just what I think, of course.

 

[Kodiak]

To answer your question: Who knows? They could find him tomorrow or they might never find him. Also, if found, they could present him to the public immediately, or keep him a secret forever....

Like I said..."Who knows?"...