Can Lieberman win in 08?

Would Lieberman get your vote?

  • Yes

    Votes: 7 9.0%

  • No

    Votes: 52 66.7%

  • I'm an illegal alien so I can't tell you how I vote

    Votes: 8 10.3%

  • On planet X, we vote for none of the above.

    Votes: 11 14.1%
  • Total voters
    78
hgc said:
This has been polled. One recent polls showed Lieberman and Lamont tied at 40. I don't know how much of the other 20 went to the guy who counts cards AND loses money at the casino.
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Yes hgc, but closer to 15% IIR. He's a non-starter. It's either Lieberman, Lamont or Lister :)

Lurker, this isn't like a typical split ticket. For this race, the republican is the 'third' party. Lieberman stands a decent chance of taking it. If he does, it will have to change the public face of the dem party machine...maybe the rep machine as well but to a lesser extent. To use a poker analogy, a Lieberman win would give him two aces in the hole and chip lead in presidential '08 texas hold'em. I don't really think he can win in '08 running as a Ind, but he probably could running as a dem. But if he runs as an Ind in '08, then it splits the dem ticket and the reps take the pot.

*this is just my analysis...I'm not married to it.
 
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Rob Lister said:
Actually, we probably could use a designated driver. It pays $150,000 but requires almost 20 hours per week.
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I was ready to volunteer... but I am building a house. I could use the cash.

Do you mind if I moonlight?

Aaron

ETA: and what about doughnuts?
 
3% of precincts: Lieberman 2,907 40.4%, Lamont 4,282 59.6%
 
6% of precincts: Lieberman 7,199 43.4%, Lamont 9,399 56.6%
 
U.S. Senate - - Dem Primary
128 of 748 Precincts Reporting - 17.11%

Lamont 30,219 56.34%
Lieberman 23,414 43.66%
 
189 of 748 Precincts Reporting - 25.27%

Lamont 40,934 55.09%
Lieberman 33,375 44.91%


Gap is closing?
 
287 of 748 Precincts Reporting - 38.37%

Lamont 61,449 53.62%
Lieberman 53,159 46.38%

Nail-biter in the making
 
Lieberman always reminds me of the dad on Alf.

Admit it, you all thought the same thing...
 
shuize said:
I bet Lieberman will run as an independent and win in November.
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Perhaps so. It seems to be a situation which is unique during my life time.

Connecticut voter registration:
Republican 438,554
Democrat 670,356
Minor Party 4,465
Unaffiliated 876,538

If Lamont gets 70% of the democrats, 50% of the unaffiliated and 30% of the Republicans he wins easily because there are so many more Dems than Reps.

Of course on this go round he only got about 55% of Dems so maybe that would be a better estimate for the next time around.

But could Lieberman really get 70% of the Republican vote? Maybe if the Republican candidate resigns or is found to be a pedophile but barring something like that it seems Lieberman isn't going to get 70% of the Republicans. So, maybe a better guess is:

Lieberman
50% of Republicans (219,277)
40% of Dems (268142.4)
50% of unaffiliated (438,269)

Total 925688.4

Lamont
25% of Republicans (109638.5)
60% of Dems (402213.6)
50% of unaffiliated (438,269)

Total 950121.1

Another slight edge for Lamont is that the smaller parties tend to be mostly Liberal and a higher percentage of them will probably go for Lamont than Lieberman. And my guess is the worst guess that I have in my collection of wild ass guesses is the Lieberman percentage of Republican voters and it is conceivable that this could go much lower.

ETA: A link to some actual facts as opposed to the BS above:
51 percent supported Lieberman, 27 percent supported Lamont, and 9 percent supported Republican Alan Schlesinger.
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http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060803/ap_on_el_se/connecticut_senate
 
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Just saw Lieberman on CNN, being interviewed by Soledad O'Brien.

She asked him if he will drop out if the party leaders come to him and ask him to drop out, because his indy run will hurt the party. He responded that he's running for the good of the party because he didn't want the party to be captured by extremist elements*. This is why Democrats like me hate Lieberman. Not only is Lamont not an extremist of any kind, but this is just another example of how Lieberman parrots Republican talking points to undermine his party. This is why Sean Hannity, Bill O'Reilly, Ann Coulter, etc want Lieberman to remain in the Senate. They support no other Democrat but the one who undermines the party from within.
 
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