Hezbollah's, the Lebanese government's, and others' calls for a cease fire are a ploy. They call for one because they are losing and Israel has them cut off and has the ability to continue to punish them severely.
Israel's response to the Gaza kidnapping sent a pretty clear message that Hezbollah failed to understand. This seems an irrational misjudgment on their part since Israel's response to the Hamas kidnapping action was to bomb Gaza. Did Hezbollah expect something different?
On the other hand, Israel's leaders seem genuinely surprised at the Hezbollah missile attacks and quality of resistance. Let's take a look back in three years and see if Israel's position is stronger or weaker in the region, or they are in a political and military morass.
Israel can wait this out a lot longer than can Hezbollah. Israel stands nothing to gain from a cease fire. Doing so would only allow Hezbollah time to regroup, reorganize, and rearm. Talks will accomplish nothing, as both sides are firmly entrenched in their positions. Hezbollah wants to keep its arms and to destroy Israel, and Israel will not negotiate with terrorists.
Yeah maybe. Hezbollah is a
symptom though (yeah a
big symptom). Destroying it does not remove the underlying sentiment behind why they are there. A ceasefire would probably be a 'reloading with longer range missiles' time. But Israel's bombing of Druze Christian and other non Hezbollah areas is going to make winning them over pretty hard.
A cease fire is a pipe dream for peaceniks who want peace at all costs.
I see the "war dream" like this: To win, Israel needs to be willing to win by destroying both Syria and Iran - period. There is no other way to achieve their goals. If they are not willing or incapable of that, they are just making their problem harder to solve.
Israel would be foolish to stop this military action it is winning. This blockade/siege may take weeks or months, but sticking it out will result in a surrender by their enemy. Hunger and fatigue will result in Hezbollah's resolve weakening, and eventually they will be less bold as they are now. They'll face pressure from within Lebanon and from other nations to give it up and they will, for now. It will take time and steadfast pressure and bombardment by Israel.
There are several considerations that make me doubt those outcomes:
- Can the Israeli economy survive a war lasting 'months' at this pace?
- Hezbollah will almost certainly come out of this with more support in the short term.
- Longer range, and more powerful missiles will make buffer zones meaningless. I think the buffer zone notion might be a thing of the past for Israel.
- The human stakes in the next Lebanon conflict will start much higher for Israel, with more deaths and damage.
- US public opinion could turn against Israel: The potential damage done by bombing Druze Christians in Lebanon could be considerable. The Druze oppose Hezbollah and this will have an erosive effect on US support. Despite this being largely a political conflict, there are strong underlying religious sentiments that Israel ignores at their peril.
- A major difference between 'them' (Radical Islam) and 'us' (Western mindset) is that they see the battle in a much longer time frame than we do. They are cool with this taking 200 years.
I think Israel will gain much more politically from other Middle East countries by demonstrating its strength and resolve and willinglyness to put its money where its mouth is. Folding to any negotiations will be seen as weakness, and in my opinion, a fatal flaw.
There may be a lot of truth to this, but kopji the cynic says Israel is already starting to see the value in 'folding', and it's taken less than a month. This will not go on for much longer unless it expands to other countries.
(edited to fix lists. I may not be right but I can at least make it look nice)
