Cont: Brexit XII

[jimbob]

Brexit blame game returns ahead of Budget - https://on.ft.com/49jOSbo via @FT

Unsurprisingly to me at least, Brexit has been worse than many predictions.

"The OBR will say clearly that Brexit had a bigger effect on the British economy than they expected, along with Covid," said one government official. The OBR declined to Comment.
A 0.2 percentage point markdown in the OBR's productivity forecast would cost about £18bn a year.

 

[Helen]

And as usual, the have-nots will pay the price while the haves keep getting havier.

 

[Gord_in_Toronto]

Some stats are now in.

Brexit’s impact on the UK economy - UK in a changing Europe

Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Paul Mizen, Pawel Smietanka, and Gregory Thwaites argue that there is evidence that Brexit has had a large and persistent negative impact on GDP, output and productivity in their new NBER working paper.

ukandeu.ac.uk

Our three main findings are:

1. Brexit has imposed a large and persistent cost on the UK economy. By 2025, we estimate that UK GDP per capita was 6–8% lower than it would have been without Brexit. Investment was 12–18% lower, employment 3–4% lower, and productivity 3–4% lower.
2. These losses emerged gradually. The impact was hard to see in 2017–18, but accumulated steadily over the subsequent decade as uncertainty persisted, trade barriers rose, and firms diverted resources away from productive activity.
3. Economists were roughly right on the magnitude of the impact, but wrong on the timing. The consensus pre‑referendum forecast of a 4% long‑run GDP loss turned out to be close to the actual loss after five years, but too optimistic about the longer run.

An immense success.

(Well I guess some made a decent profit. But I wonder who?)

 

[Norman Alexander]

(Well I guess some made a decent profit. But I wonder who?)

Bookies taking bets on Brexit success.

 

[wobs]

We need to re-join.

The chemical industry in the UK is in trouble. Sectors such as steel or fishing grab the headlines when they're in trouble, but chemicals are just as important for the UK, and site are shutting down with little fuss in the news (other than below).

The Chemical Industries Association (CIA) has expressed similar concerns. In statements issued throughout 2025, the trade body warned that UK chemicals face “unprecedented challenges” stemming from a combination of regulatory divergence, high energy prices and post-Brexit trading friction. Production data underscores this strain: ONS statistics show a 5.6% year-on-year drop in chemical output, continuing a wider pattern of decline since 2021.

The introduction of UK REACH—a domestic version of the EU’s chemical regulation—has been central to industry frustration. Unlike the EU regime, UK REACH does not grant automatic access to toxicological or exposure data already held by European authorities. British companies must purchase or recreate this information, a process that can cost hundreds of thousands of pounds per substance.

UK Chemical Sector at Breaking Point as UK REACH Deadlines, PFAS Pressures and Energy Costs Converge - Labelservice

Britain’s chemical industry is heading into one of the most consequential regulatory cycles in its modern history. With UK REACH deadlines edging closer, energy-intensive sites facing record operating costs, water companies reporting rising PFAS contamination, and the EU pushing through...

labelservice.co.uk

There is also a report by Sky News into this where he visits a salt plant. In that, energy costs are blamed, including climate change related costs:

 

[Helen]

I'd welcome you back with open arms. So would most other EUians, i expect, although some might be a little miffed. The strongest resistance will probably be UKians, sadly.

 

[wobs]

Rejoining looks difficult:

Five reasons why rejoining the EU is a difficult path to follow - UK in a changing Europe

Simon Usherwood sets out five reasons why going down the road of rejoining the EU would prove difficult for any UK political party.

ukandeu.ac.uk

But still worth IMHO. Even though it's not guaranteed, and may need more than one referendum (how is that fair?).

 

[Helen]

I keep thinking of Ed Byrne on Mock the Week (which is coming back in February!), when explaining what 2070 something referred to; "the year that the UK can rejoin the EU, but only after it changes its name to Very Sorry Land". I hope you will be back long before then. Even if it takes time, and a name-change.

There's no doubt that the current US president has managed to bring us closer together, and could make most EU countries happier to have you back - it may also make even some of the more hostile UKians less so, now that the "special relationship" is perhaps not so sweet...

 

[Andy_Ross]

coming back on some obscure cable channel

 

[Helen]

coming back on some obscure cable channel

Which happens to be included in my HBO, or whatever they're calling themselves atm, subscription (which they, in a weak moment a few years ago, offered to me for half the price, as long as I don't cancel it). I'm a lucky girl! It's bound to appear on youtube as well.

 

[novaphile]

So... Did the NHS get the extra 50 million pounds per day yet?

 

[Carrot Flower King]

So... Did the NHS get the extra 50 million pounds per day yet?

Did it bollocks!