Brexit: the referendum

lionking said:
I sort of discount W. The size of a minor city. Insignificant.





Okay, okay only joking. I love Wales. If England and Wales want to be called Britain so be it.
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OK, so put this in similar terms. Suppose the U.S. has a similarly sized economy as the E.U. (I think we do). UK leaving would represent what? California leaving?
 
Fudbucker said:
OK, so put this in similar terms. Suppose the U.S. has a similarly sized economy as the E.U. (I think we do). UK leaving would represent what? California leaving?
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Last I looked the EU had a bigger economy than the US, but that's just a quibble.

Yes that's a close apology in my view. But the symbolism is far, far stronger. There would never have been a proper EU without the UK, and you will read conjecture that the EU could collapse without it. The same can't be said for the US.
 
Lisbon Treaty said:
Article 50

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.
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There is no chance we won't negotiate with individual member states because that is how it's done, but the decision on a withdrawal treaty will be taken by the rest of the Union, by qualified majority voting of the Council, after (I think simple) majority voting of the Parliament.

If a treaty can't be drawn up, then two years after notification, then EU law will o longer apply (except to products sold in the EU). The exception would be if they thought a deal were doable in 3 years, they can extend the deadline.
 
lionking said:
Last I looked the EU had a bigger economy than the US, but that's just a quibble.

Yes that's a close apology in my view. But the symbolism is far, far stronger. There would never have been a proper EU without the UK, and you will read conjecture that the EU could collapse without it. The same can't be said for the US.
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I don't know how you guys ended up in a position where you ceded so much authority to a bunch of technocrats, and I think the E.U. is like the Titanic just as the lookout spotted the iceberg (maybe OK, but probably sunk), so bailing out may be the best thing...

But either way I hope it works out for you guys. Britain and the U.S. go way back and you were one of the few countries that helped us significantly in Iraq. It was a doomed cause, but at least we weren't entirely alone.
 
Fudbucker said:
I don't know how you guys ended up in a position where you ceded so much authority to a bunch of technocrats, and I think the E.U. is like the Titanic just as the lookout spotted the iceberg (maybe OK, but probably sunk), so bailing out may be the best thing...

But either way I hope it works out for you guys. Britain and the U.S. go way back and you were one of the few countries that helped us significantly in Iraq. It was a doomed cause, but at least we weren't entirely alone.
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Not that it's significant, but I'm an Australian.
 
Hopefully Brexit is Waterloo for the globalists in the U.K. -- and elsewhere, for that matter. A follow-up win by Trump in November should seal the deal. Now, here's something for the U.K. globalists to sing:

Waterloo I was defeated, you won the war
Waterloo promise to love you for ever more
Waterloo couldn't escape if I wanted to
Waterloo knowing my fate is to be with you
 
Fudbucker said:
Well, you guys helped us out in Vietnam. Which was even more of a losing cause.
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True enough. We've probably been the US' best ally over the past few decades. I was in the ballot for conscription which would have sent me to Vietnam. My number didn't come up...
 
Fudbucker said:
I don't know how you guys ended up in a position where you ceded so much authority to a bunch of technocrats,
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It isn't actually. When you look deep into it every individual country has much more authority than ring wing populist pretend it has, and the European parliament too. The perception is only due to the other groups the name escape me.

But basically once you go down to it, there is more power to the individual countries in EU, than there is for an US state in the US federal union.

and I think the E.U. is like the Titanic just as the lookout spotted the iceberg (maybe OK, but probably sunk), so bailing out may be the best thing...
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Negotiation of Individual state will not fare better against the other economics blocks. they have less leverage normally. Negotiation between say china and EU are different than between Britain and china. Or other similar situations.
 
Yikes!!! What is happening to the yen??? What does the yen have to do with this???

Yen Soars Past 100 Per Dollar First Time Since 2013 on U.K. Vote

Currency surges 18% versus pound as BBC calls Brexit victory
‘All hell is breaking loose,’ Mizuho’s Vishnu Varathan says

The Japanese yen soared past 100 per U.S. dollar for the first time since November 2013 as the U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union spurred demand for this year’s best-performing major currency as a haven.

The yen reversed earlier losses to surge as much as 7.2 percent to 99.02 against the greenback, climbing against all is major peers. Vote counts declared from 306 of 382 districts produced a lead for the “Leave” campaign and the U.K.’s three main television networks predicted a Brexit win. Investors and analysts have said a move past 100 would put pressure on Japanese authorities to intervene to weaken the currency as its advance in 2016 threatens to unwind much of the impact of the Bank of Japan’s record monetary easing.
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So not only is the pound falling against the US$, it is falling even more against the yen, and the yen is rising against the dollar, euro and, I assume, every other currency. The Nikkei average is down over 1280 points!

Thanks Brits!! :covereyes
(I live in Japan fwiw. A strong yen is generally considered bad news over here and the stock market tends to move inversely to the strength of the yen.)
 
gypsyjackson said:
David Cameron: stay or resign? My opinion is that he should resign, though I don't feel as strongly about it as I would have done had the Scottish independence referendum gone the other way (breaking up the UK would have been intolerable for a UK Prime Minister).
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He'll probably stay on for long enough to negotiate a deal, then get the hell out of office as soon as possible. Even if a good deal of the Leave-backing ministers signed a letter saying he had a mandate and a duty to stay in office, he's lost so much political capital over this, that it's going to hard to imagine him staying for long.
 
Fudbucker said:
I think some of this has been "baked in", but it's still surprising. I bet we're off 800+
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?? the S&P broke through to a few pts away from all time highs just before the surprise result last night? it's now halted trading limit down on Futures, I dont think it's very baked in.
 
Puppycow said:
Yikes!!! What is happening to the yen??? What does the yen have to do with this???

Yen Soars Past 100 Per Dollar First Time Since 2013 on U.K. Vote



So not only is the pound falling against the US$, it is falling even more against the yen, and the yen is rising against the dollar, euro and, I assume, every other currency. The Nikkei average is down over 1280 points!

Thanks Brits!! :covereyes
(I live in Japan fwiw. A strong yen is generally considered bad news over here and the stock market tends to move inversely to the strength of the yen.)
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The yen, like gold, has always been considered a safe haven. And why not? Japan has remained in the top two or three economies for the past few decades.
 
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