Brexit: the referendum

I can't quite see how there is ever going to be a Brexit if the business elite are determined to be in the club of the European Political Union, and the political elite are determined to be in, even though the EU accounts have not been investigated by forensic accountants for the past twenty years. That's a bit like the charities in the UK, which are now the UK's fifth largest industry.

The business elite want Turkey and the Ukraine to have the right to work for less in the UK because they are not affected by it. It's the local authorities who have to pick up the bill, and so they are now busy closing libraries and swimming pools and care homes, which doesn't affect Sir Richard Branson living in luxury in the British Virgin Islands.

Almost all students want a European Political Union because they want to be employed by German companies, and they have no sense of history, and they have guilt about being of British descent.

This is not to say that leaving the EU would necessarily lead to economic utopia. There needs to be due and careful thought.
 
I hope the bookies are right, and believe they are. But there's a psychological element at play that might become apparent - 'Leave' is exciting whereas 'Stay' is dull. A lot of people have a quiet yearning for dramatic change, 'a fresh start' as it were.

I'm reminded of the Greek referendum last year - 'Yes' to accept the Troika deal or 'No' to reject it, and where 'No' would have earth-shattering consequences for the country if followed through. The bookies were so confident of a 'Yes' vote that at least one of them showed off by paying out in advance. The situation in the UK with the EU decision is nothing like as fraught, but I wouldn't underestimate the attraction of taking a contrarian stance.
 
Henri McPhee said:
I can't quite see how there is ever going to be a Brexit if the business elite are determined to be in the club of the European Political Union, and the political elite are determined to be in, even though the EU accounts have not been investigated by forensic accountants for the past twenty years. That's a bit like the charities in the UK, which are now the UK's fifth largest industry.

The business elite want Turkey and the Ukraine to have the right to work for less in the UK because they are not affected by it. It's the local authorities who have to pick up the bill, and so they are now busy closing libraries and swimming pools and care homes, which doesn't affect Sir Richard Branson living in luxury in the British Virgin Islands.
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**** me, you're doing it again. Do you never learn? This is not a place for your hobby horse "somebody wants Turkey in the EU".........and is it really difficult to understand the concept that businessmen will get one vote each? Really, it can't be that hard to grasp such a simple principle: referenda don't hand extra votes to big powerful blocks such as business. How about sticking to the subject, which isn't Turkey, the Virgin Islands, or Richard Branson.

Henri McPhee said:
Almost all students want a European Political Union because they want to be employed by German companies, and they have no sense of history, and they have guilt about being of British descent.........
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You have no evidence for this, because you've plucked it out of the air.
 
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GlennB said:
........I'm reminded of the Greek referendum last year - 'Yes' to accept the Troika deal or 'No' to reject it........
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Which is why the Electoral Commission changed the wording so that we have a "Stay" and a "Leave" question, rather than a "Yes" or "No" one, thus hopefully removing any inbuilt bias.
 
Lothian said:
Farage, Gove and Galloway appear to be the poster boys for the out campaign. Couldn't have picked them better myself.
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It'll be interesting to see Boris' stance.

Meanwhile I was a little surprised to see The Times, Mail, Express and Telegraph being pretty savage about Cameron's deal.
 
GlennB said:
It'll be interesting to see Boris' stance.
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Indeed. I actually think he could make a measurable difference to either campaign.

GlennB said:
Meanwhile I was a little surprised to see The Times, Mail, Express and Telegraph being pretty savage about Cameron's deal.
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I'm not. It was a deal with the bar set extremely low, to be absolutely certain that victory could be declared.

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Here's a point. This deal is actually going to be really bad for us in Europe in the long run, assuming the referendum result is "stay". We'll have shot our bolt. We've annoyed the hell out of a whole lot of leaders. "That's it, the threat of a referendum and a Brexit is over and done with, you cried wolf, and you've set Britain up as somehow special. Well, we'll see about that........" I can picture Hollande saying that overtly.
 
MikeG said:
Here's a point. This deal is actually going to be really bad for us in Europe in the long run, assuming the referendum result is "stay". We'll have shot our bolt. We've annoyed the hell out of a whole lot of leaders. "That's it, the threat of a referendum and a Brexit is over and done with, you cried wolf, and you've set Britain up as somehow special. Well, we'll see about that........" I can picture Hollande saying that overtly.
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I don't think that's necessarily the case; there are other countries who don't want to go the route of closer union, and if we stay may well develop the position we hold.

From the Grauniad:
The EU can be changed. While the reforms Cameron has secured are modest, there’s a swelling chorus of voices in countries like Germany saying not just “We must do this, reluctantly, to keep Britain in”, but “We really do need to reform the EU”. If Britain remains, the reform lobby is strong; if it leaves, much weaker.
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We've got France to contend with, though Zoots. The people may be deeply split on the subject, but the political elite is so embedded in the European project that it would take a Le Penn election victory to shake them up. I can't see that happening. in the meantime.........the ghastly Common Agricultural Policy gobbles up about a third of the budget, and there is nothing that anyone can do about it .....because France.

Here is Boris' reasonably well argued fence-sitting, on his own website.
 
Craig B said:
Someone just messaged me: referendum 23 June.
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BBC.

MikeG said:
I'm not. It was a deal with the bar set extremely low, to be absolutely certain that victory could be declared.
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Exactly.

MikeG said:
Here's a point. This deal is actually going to be really bad for us in Europe in the long run, assuming the referendum result is "stay". We'll have shot our bolt. We've annoyed the hell out of a whole lot of leaders. "That's it, the threat of a referendum and a Brexit is over and done with, you cried wolf, and you've set Britain up as somehow special. Well, we'll see about that........" I can picture Hollande saying that overtly.
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Very true.
 
MikeG said:
Now that Cameron has achieved his renegotiation of the country's relationship with Europe, this is the thread for all things related to a possible British exit from the EU.

BBC: "Cameron: UK has special status with EU"

BBC : Osborne: "UK has achieved substantial change"

The bookies think we'll be staying in.

The opinion polls are close, but with "in" leading, it seems.
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What exactly has Cameron achieved that will swing anyone's vote? The only votes that seem to have swung have been the other way to Cameron's stated position.
 
MikeG said:
Here's a point. This deal is actually going to be really bad for us in Europe in the long run, assuming the referendum result is "stay". We'll have shot our bolt. We've annoyed the hell out of a whole lot of leaders. "That's it, the threat of a referendum and a Brexit is over and done with, you cried wolf, and you've set Britain up as somehow special. Well, we'll see about that........" I can picture Hollande saying that overtly.
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Yup I would agree with this. I would imagine that there is too much leaning going on in the upper levels upon David Cameron to make sure that the result is 'Stay'. He has not really gone in hard on the EU like he should have. He sets the bar low, gets the agreement and then parades it as victory with the message to us voters being 'you can vote stay now because I have negotiated great terms for us'

I'm not buying it.
 
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Henri McPhee said:
I can't quite see how there is ever going to be a Brexit if the business elite are determined to be in the club of the European Political Union, and the political elite are determined to be in, even though the EU accounts have not been investigated by forensic accountants for the past twenty years. That's a bit like the charities in the UK, which are now the UK's fifth largest industry.
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I've heard this talk about "EU accounts" before. What's the background to this?
Are UK government accounts regularly audited?
 
Lothian said:
Farage, Gove and Galloway appear to be the poster boys for the out campaign. Couldn't have picked them better myself.
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But that's the Dream Team who won (or nearly lost) the NO to Scottish independence.

The appearance of George Galloway as a “surprise guest” at a “Brexit” rally provoked an angry walkout by supporters of Grassroots Out, one of the main groups campaigning against Britain’s EU membership.

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As emotions ran high security guards were reportedly told to close the doors to prevent people leaving the hall.
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Nobody may leave the Brexit rally!
 
GnaGnaMan said:
I've heard this talk about "EU accounts" before. What's the background to this?
Are UK government accounts regularly audited?
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The money the EU spends always passes the audit.

Any shortfall in the audit process is down to countries like the UK not wanting to produce evidence to EU auditors to justify what they spend and how they regulate it.

Nevertheless, I am sure the right-wing media outlets who make the biggest noise about the EU accounts would be all in favour of the UK altering its accounting practices to satisfy bureaucrats in Brussels...
 
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