Brexit: Now What? Part IV

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I wonder if the EU is going to make revist things like more exact procedures and timelines for member states wanting to leave after the Brexit thing works itself out one way or another.

As an American looking in at this from outside I hope I'm not applying to much of my own countries... unique mentalities but Article 50 reads like a clause written under the assumption that nobody would ever actually do it.

Ironically not unlike Brexit itself.
 
In further developments that literally no one, not even David Davis, could possibly have forseen, the EU is going to move two EU regulatory agencies out of the UK to keep them in the EU at a cost of arouond 1,000 highly paid jobs and significant leverage over EU policy on finance and pharmaceuticals.

He almost literally did not foresee this:
"David Davis claims medicine and banking bodies will not have to leave Canary Wharf"
https://www.ft.com/content/72ead180-229a-11e7-8691-d5f7e0cd0a16
 
Exactly! And if a mega-genius like Double-D couldnt have predicted it, what hope for us ordinary folk!

It's those perfidious foreigners resolutely failing to satisfy our every whim - how unsporting of them. Flanders and Swann I think had if covered:

And all the world over, each nation’s the same
They’ve simply no notion of playing the game
They argue with umpires, they cheer when they’ve won
And they practice beforehand which ruins the fun!
 
I wonder if the EU is going to make revist things like more exact procedures and timelines for member states wanting to leave after the Brexit thing works itself out one way or another.

As an American looking in at this from outside I hope I'm not applying to much of my own countries... unique mentalities but Article 50 reads like a clause written under the assumption that nobody would ever actually do it.

Ironically not unlike Brexit itself.

You are absolutely correct. Assumption was it will never be used.
 
I wonder if the EU is going to make revist things like more exact procedures and timelines for member states wanting to leave after the Brexit thing works itself out one way or another.

As an American looking in at this from outside I hope I'm not applying to much of my own countries... unique mentalities but Article 50 reads like a clause written under the assumption that nobody would ever actually do it.

Ironically not unlike Brexit itself.

Wudang's article covers it exactly

Quite a good interview with the author of Article 50 here

https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-article-50-lord-kerr-john-kerr/

At that time, the rise of Austrian far-right leader Jörg Haider was a big worry for mainstream EU leaders and some southern European EU members had returned to democracy only in recent decades. Kerr imagined that the exit procedure might be triggered after an authoritarian leader took power in a member country and the EU responded by suspending that country’s right to vote on EU decisions.

“It seemed to me very likely that a dictatorial regime would then, in high dudgeon, want to storm out. And to have a procedure for storming out seemed to be quite a sensible thing to do — to avoid the legal chaos of going with no agreement,” Kerr said.
 
Over on badscience, someone has posted a link to this story in the Express from April



Brexit Britain fights for banking and medicines agencies as EU gloats 'YOU'VE LOST THEM'

BRITAIN will not give up the two European Union (EU) agencies based in London without a fight despite the claims by EU officials saying they would definitely moved


It would appear that the UK will take a firm line with the EU over the agencies with one government official telling Express.co.uk that they were not going anywhere yet.

Well I certainly saw an effective fight put up by Brexit Britain.

ETA: Meanwhile, I saw that they have someone called Michelle Dewberry* saying that the EU should give the UK money.

‘They owe us money!' Michelle Dewberry's STUNNING point Brussels should LISTEN TO

BREXITEER Michelle Dewberry launched a brutal attack on the European Union, demanding the Brussels bloc outlines how much it owes Britain following years of contributions to EU assets.

The Don's prediction about the Brexiteers blaming the nasty Europeans for being mean and ruining Brexit seems to be playing out. Even though we hold all the cards.



*Google tells me that she was a contestant on the Apprentice
 
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I think you do need the typeface in those sizes to appreciate the measured tone of those articles
 
Over on badscience, someone has posted a link to this story in the Express from April



Brexit Britain fights for banking and medicines agencies as EU gloats 'YOU'VE LOST THEM'

BRITAIN will not give up the two European Union (EU) agencies based in London without a fight despite the claims by EU officials saying they would definitely moved




Well I certainly saw an effective fight put up by Brexit Britain.

ETA: Meanwhile, I saw that they have someone called Michelle Dewberry* saying that the EU should give the UK money.



The Don's prediction about the Brexiteers blaming the nasty Europeans for being mean and ruining Brexit seems to be playing out. Even though we hold all the cards.



*Google tells me that she was a contestant on the Apprentice

"One said: "The agencies are lost. You cannot have your cake and eat it."

Previously Donald Tusk, the President of the European Council, said that the UK had no say in where the agencies would move to: "The future location of the seats of EU agencies and facilities located in the United Kingdom is a matter for the 27 member states.""

Of course having your cake and eating it too was the entire plan behind brexit. The nerve of those foreigners saying what the british people can and can't do!

Seriously who would have thought that the EU would keep agencies in a non member country?
 
Barnier challenges UK on post-Brexit border proposals

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-42052122

The UK must come forward with proposals aimed at avoiding a hard border in Ireland, the EU's chief Brexit negotiator has said.
Michel Barnier said it is, so far, unclear what the UK is willing to commit to in Northern Ireland.
That echoes the position of the Irish government.
It wants the UK to give more commitments before the Brexit talks can begin considering a trade deal.
 
It all looks like sour grapes from the losing side. Even though they spent a lot more on their campaign, and were supported by extra government spending that wasn't counted, they still lost.

It seems to me that it is more sensible to be concerned about whether the winners followed the rules than he loses (in any campaign).
 
Were they really that divorced from reality? Businesses staying or leaving sure, but the EU keeping regulatory agencies in place?

See the post above yours.

The DUP is insisting on no hard border between Northern Ireland and Southern Ireland, and no different status for Northern Ireland compared to the rest of the UK and the UK to leave the EU.... And remaining in the customs union is verboten because...

because it is self evidently a bad idea...


Because of brown people (who aren't EU migrants anyway), OK Eastern Europeans who are keeping many of our critical industries running.
 
Adding to the fun is the fact that the DUP are keeping May in power at the moment, they have to be listened to and kept sweet.
 
Adding to the fun is the fact that the DUP are keeping May in power at the moment, they have to be listened to and kept sweet.

Indeed, although it would help if their demands were not mutually exclusive without Ireland changing its status.

I think the following exchange probably explains everything.

jimbob said:
I'm going to post this exchange from Badscience

liverpoolmiss said:
Just as everything looked sorted, another German election is going to **** things right up.


El Pollo Diablo said:
How did everything look sorted?


liverpoolmiss said:
The Brexit thing? Didn't it all get agreed at those negotiations?


Little waster said:
Yep, ages ago.

As David Davis predicted it was the easiest trade deal in history, it was a glorous day.

Representatives from BMW and the major Prosecco producers were on hand to force the EU to rubber stamp whatever Britain wanted and the Eurocrats were so excited that Britain was going to munificently bestow a few billion of their worthless euros on them that they never even bothered to read the small print.

As expected Eire begged on bended knee to be allowed to rejoin the Union in order to share in our glorious new future thus instantly solving any potential border issue, this disappointed James Brokenshire as he had already come up with a genius but ever so simple solution had their been any unexpected hiccups, he'll go far and is a shoe-in for the post of Irish High Commisioner once direct rule of Dublin resumes from Westminister.

Meanwhile, before the EU had even finished squiggling their signatures, Liam Fox was literally mobbed by representatives from the US and China pleading for us to allow them to buy our exports, while a fistfight broke out between South Korea and Japan over who could get first dibs on our pigs ears, as Australia flicked through our catalogue of innovative jams, in what can only be described as childlike, open-mouthed wonder.

As our triumphant Brexiteers swept out of the hall, the EU27 broke into an impromptu round of "For he's a jolly good fellow" in enthusiastic if broken English and as a farewell surprise forced an envelope on a majestic Theresa May. With her usual quiet competence she quickly opened the envelope to find that a tearful European public had had a whipround as an act of gratitude for over a century of English all-round good eggness in standing up for freedom and democracy in the face of various kaisers, dictators and suchlike, something we are far too humble to ever mention ourselves. By happy coincidence the amount raised was the equivalent of £350m per week in perpetuity, enough to completely and permanently solve all the issues with the NHS. There wasn't a dry eye in the room by the end as the Europeans folded themselves into a group hug, comforting each other with the knowledge that although they may have lost the best of them but the relationship with the UK would remain deep, special and strong, and we'd continue to keep a benevolent eye on them.

In other news all the brown people in the UK have quietly packed their bags and returned home, leaving polite notes apologising for all the terrible inconvenience they've caused. As is historically the case, the sudden mass emigration of millions of people has caused the domestic UK economy to boom in a virtuous circle of full employment, low inflation and higher wages, for reasons I obviously don't need to explain.

How did you miss it? :?


liverpoolmiss said:
That's what I thought.

Obviously, with over half the time between referendum and 29 March 2019 exit date already elapsed (51% to be precise), the preparations are well advanced. As you described, the UK quickly agreed basic principles. But then also went on to design the new procedures for customs, tracking immigrants etc and set about building the infrastructure and systems.

Setting a deadline of 4 months before exit day to complete this infrastructure was very sensible. The government is showing a lot of competence in staying on track for this November 2018 target date, because it will allow for testing prior to the 30 March 2019 start date - just like the Olympic Stadium was complete and held its first event four months before the July 2012 opening ceremony. Exporters and importers will be able to prepare with plenty of time before Brexit Day. No doubt there'll be one or two teething problems when it goes live, but at least there won't be queues of lorries from Dover to the M25.

But for lols, just imagine an alternative universe. Suppose by this stage the government had only agreed the most basic questions, such as the Ireland border, rights of EU citizens and the divorce costs! And was still negotiating complicated questions like the new EU trade deal! Just imagine if they were only then, with a year and four months to go, starting to design the complex new infrastructure!

Would be hard to imagine a government that incompetent. And if they were so incompetent they'd only settled the initial questions of NI, EU citizens and costs by now, they'd probably be too incompetent to agree the EU trade deal - let alone prepare for Brexit Day.

jimbob said:
I'm going to post this exchange from Badscience

And it continues


Little waster said:
liverpoolmiss said:
But for lols, just imagine an alternative universe. Suppose by this stage the government had only agreed the most basic questions, such as the Ireland border, rights of EU citizens and the divorce costs! And was still negotiating complicated questions like the new EU trade deal! Just imagine if they were only then, with a year and four months to go, starting to design the complex new infrastructure!

Would be hard to imagine a government that incompetent. And if they were so incompetent they'd only settled the initial questions of NI, EU citizens and costs by now, they'd probably be too incompetent to agree the EU trade deal - let alone prepare for Brexit Day.

I'm afraid your partisan bias is showing again. Shame. :(

The very suggeston that there could be any government be so incompetent as to only manage to complete Phase I negotiations in the first year is frankly insulting.

You have to remember the Government chose the starting date for the two year Brexit countdown which meant they had all they time they needed to get all their ducks in a row and therefore hit the ground running, meaning the bulk of the negotiations could be sorted in the very first meeting. Later meetings, if required, would only be needed to tidy up some of the minor details.

The referendum was in the June, Davis suggested the pre-negotiaation planning should be sorted by September but May to her credit insisted on that extra 6 months to ensure she absolutely nailed it. I think she was overly cautious as you have to remember the Leave campaign have had the last 40 years to figure out what a post-EU Briain would look like, so all the intellectual heavy-lifting had already been done for her, to the point where most of the major Brexiteers were happy enough to simply walk away from it immediately after the referendum supremely confident that absolutely anybody would be able to dot-the-tees and cross-the-eyes on delivering a Red, White and Blue Brexit. Just look at the wealth of talent they had to call on; Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Priti Patel, Liam Fox, Neil Hamilton, Nigel Farage, Paul Nuttall, Mike Reed, Nick Griffin, Vladimir Putin, Ian Paisley Jr, Katie Hopkins, Nadie Dorries, Donald Trump, Melane Philips, some of the finest and most respected political minds of any generation. Even so, May chose to give her team an extra 6 months which they certainly didn't need, you don't get a reputation for being strong and stable for nothing. The negotiations were obviously going to be an absolute cakewalk, I mean what sort of dipstick would voluntarily trigger the Brexit countdown before figuring out exactly what they wanted?

But let us indulge your ridiculous scenario a little more. Lets assume May took leave of her senses and decided to trigger Bexit before she knew exactly what she wanted (presumably the very broad brushstrokes regarding customs unions, citizens rights and EFTA etc. were sorted out in the first 72 hours after the referendum). She would then have to do something baffling like I dunno ... immediately call an un-necessary election (which she has already she ruled out calling seven times previously ) ... I mean that would waste several months of precious negotiating time ... although I suppose you could argue the resulting landslide she'd get would perhaps be worth it, but I digress. Even with that big hole blown in her timeline she still has plenty of time to nail Phase I and move onto Phase II, everyone knows what the ultimate goal looks like, it's just a question of sequencing, short of having a bunch of complete dunces as negotiators that should be straightforward enough, and what sort of PM would allow these crucial negotiations to be handled by complete ignoramuses, she'd have to be some sort of malfunctioning animatronic waxwork advised by pot-plants to do that.

But like Alice lets try to believe 6 impossible things before Brexit. In this scenario the PM triggers Brexit prematurely, calls an un-necessary election and then sticks some mouth-breathing cretins in charge of negotiations. In this scenario the problems this causes would be obvious very early on, even the most committed Brexiteer has to be aware things aren't going to plan by at least September, certainly well before conference season obviously. For all our disagreements, we have to recognise the right-wing press and the Brexiteers are true patriots; they certainly tell us enough times and just look at the number of poppies they wear! Its unconscionable that they would do anything to harm the country they so loudly proclaim they love. Murdoch, Lord Rothermere, the Barclay Brothers, these are all people who are synonymous with putting the interests of Britain first and their support for democracy, honest jourrnalism and the rule of law is well-documented. In such an unlikely scenario these people would clearly call for the sacking of these "Enemies of the People" who were making such a hash of the negotiations and May would have no choice but to comply, I mean she has more to lose than most if Brexit turns into a fiasco. Similarly the whole referendum was about restoring British parliamentary democracy clearly every step would be scrutinised, debated and voted on in parliament to ensure it is done right, you can have a go at the Conservatives but as a decade of austerity proves they always put the interests of the country first before petty party politics and discedited ideological dogma, the Tory backbenchers would ensure a smooth negotiation.

No your whole idea rests on a mutually exclusive proposition. A government so incompetent it could only accomplish Phase I in the first year would be too incompetent to function as a government, you wouldn't be able to trust them to stick letters onto a backdrop, I mean where would they go for a summer holiday, the Golan Heights? It would never happen, I'd believe the Americans would elect an illiterate, inarticulate self-confessed sexual predator with ties to Russia POTUS before your bizarre flight of fantasy.

I'm sorry it just had to be said.
ETA: highlighting - ouch


liverpoolmiss said:
Fair point, Little waster.

But in an infinity of multiverses, there might even be a version where all that happened! Lol, those alternate-British people would be totally **********!

What's more, suppose there was an alternative where they were already 51% through the time to Brexit but hadn't even negotiated Phase I... Of course, the government would have fallen long before this point. Unless (even more fantastic) the Labour leader was an intellectually-impaired 1970s leftie whose priority was renationalising the water companies and going to Cuba solidarity meetings. But most of the shadow cabinet would resign before supporting such a man and he'd be trounced in a general election. The fantasy would need this idiot to be suddenly popular for no good reason, perhaps with his own football chant sung by fanatical acolytes.


There is actually some less sarcastic analysis as well over there as one of the posters is in the EMA.
 
Speaking of the DUP

Irish PM should know better over Brexit, says Arlene Foster

Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar "should know better" than to "play around" with Northern Ireland over Brexit, the leader of the Democratic Unionist Party says.
Arlene Foster accused Mr Varadkar of being "reckless" as Brexit talks enter a "critical phase".

But Ireland's foreign minister Simon Coveney said his government was right to seek more assurances about the border issue before agreeing to the next phase of Brexit talks.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42064743
 
May has repeatedly given assurances that the UK will install no hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

It looks like Barnier uses the words, "UK must come forward with proposals aimed at avoiding a hard border in Ireland" as code words in much the same way as his infamous, "insufficient clarity" uttering. Both phrases are just code for, "You've not offered us a big enough bribe yet for us to commence actual negotiations."
 
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