Brexit: Now What? Part IV

[The Don]

Well there are these, highly pertinent points:

​

And then there is the simple fact of "bandwidth".

The government identified 58 sectors, for which they commissioned sectoral assessment reports. "it is not the case that 58 sectoral impact assessments exist"

This means that the government hasn't even worked out how the 58 economic sectors are likely to be affected, so how can they know what they want for these 58 sectors?

A simple one-off rule by exception (say with equivalent of bonded warehouses or free-trade zones - maybe with industrial sites being declared as part of the EU and with special EU rules) is still going to be very complicated to implement, and the parts that fall down the cracks are going to have major problems.

The whole Leaver approach to Brexit appears to be:

We're too lazy and/or stupid to do our homework and work out what the impact will be and develop some mitigating strategies so it's the responsibility of the EU to bend over backwards to ensure that it all turns out OK for us

 

[Craig B]

The Sun gives us its assessment of the Taoiseach of the Republic of Ireland.

UK newspaper says ‘naive, young’ Varadkar should ‘shut gob’ on Brexit​

, the Irish Times tells us. Will young Varadkar now obediently shut his gob and stop asking hard questions about the Border, I wonder?

Note: this advice was omitted from the Irish edition of the Sun.

 

[Aber]

the Irish Times tells us. Will young Varadkar now obediently shut his gob and stop asking hard questions about the Border, I wonder?

As I understand it, Varadkar's position is that unless he gets written guarantees that Northern Ireland will continue to follow EU (ie Dublin) rules, he will veto any move forward on negotiations.

I suspect that will not go down well in Belfast.

 

[Craig B]

As I understand it, Varadkar's position is that unless he gets written guarantees that Northern Ireland will continue to follow EU (ie Dublin) rules, he will veto any move forward on negotiations.

I suspect that will not go down well in Belfast.

Maybe if he shuts his gob the DUP will explain to him how there can simultaneously be a hard Brexit and no visible Border between the UK and the EU unless NI coordinates with Dublin rules (i.e. EU rules); but coordinating with Dublin rules isn't part of the Orange skill set.

 

[Strawberry]

As I understand it, Varadkar's position is that unless he gets written guarantees that Northern Ireland will continue to follow EU (ie Dublin) rules, he will veto any move forward on negotiations.

I suspect that will not go down well in Belfast.

Its going down very well in parts of Belfast.

As for The Sun, they're only making Leo Varadkar more popular at home. They really seem to think they're back in the 1980s where they could print something in their English edition and nobody in Ireland would know about it. Someone needs to tell them about the internet.

 

[Craig B]

Its going down very well in parts of Belfast.

Different things going down differently in different parts of Belfast is not a new phenomenon. It was experienced early post war in relation to the Common Travel Area^WP.

After the war, the Irish re-instated their previous provisions allowing free movement but the British declined to do so pending the agreement of a "similar immigration policy" in both countries. Consequently, the British maintained immigration controls between the islands of Ireland and Great Britain until 1952, to the consternation of Northern Ireland's Unionist population.​

So the unionists stopped consternating when the UK and the Republic coordinated their immigration policies, permitting common population movement. The same applies now. You may

Coordinate UK with EU (i.e. Dublin) rules, or
Coordinate the Island of Ireland and have a "Border" in U.K ports, or
Have a hard Border across Ireland.

So the choice for the DUP is: coordination or consternation. Tertium non datur.

 

[Wudang]

The Electoral Commission has launched an investigation into Vote Leave, as well as a Eurosceptic veterans’ group and student campaigner, saying it has reasonable grounds to suspect an offence has been committed.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-launches-inquiry-into-leave-campaign-funding

 

[ceptimus]

duplicate

 

[ceptimus]

The government spent more than the spending limit just on their pro-remain leaflet sent to every household in the country

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...-home-warning/

This one-off £9 million was not counted as part of the Remain campaign cost.

Remain spent much more than Leave, and even so they lost the campaign.

 

[Craig B]

The government spent more than the spending limit just on their pro-remain leaflet sent to every household in the country

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...-home-warning/

This one-off £9 million was not counted as part of the Remain campaign cost.

Remain spent much more than Leave, and even so they lost the campaign.

Are you saying the government committed an offence? It is being alleged that the Brexiteers have breached electoral spending law.

 

[Information Analyst]

Inevitably...

BBC News: Amsterdam wins bid to host EU medicines agency post-Brexit

"Amsterdam has won a vote to host the European Medicines Agency (EMA) which will relocate from London after the UK leaves the European Union.

The UK is losing both the EMA and the European Banking Authority (EBA) which employ around 1,000 people.

Ministers from the 27 EU countries remaining in the bloc after the UK departs in 2019 have taken part in the secret ballot.

They will now vote later on the new home for the EBA."

I recall the days in in the 1980s when (IIRC) ITV News used to tabulate job losses and creation on a virtually daily basis. I wonder if anyone is keeping a running tab of the ones due to Brexit?

 

[ceptimus]

Are you saying the government committed an offence? It is being alleged that the Brexiteers have breached electoral spending law.

I'm just pointing out that the Remain campaign spent more than the Leave one. And that's before you count the extra £9million plus spent by the government for the remain campaign. If leave did break the law and remain didn't, then there is something wrong with the law.

 

[jimbob]

I'm going to post this exchange from Badscience

Just as everything looked sorted, another German election is going to **** things right up.

How did everything look sorted?

The Brexit thing? Didn't it all get agreed at those negotiations?

Yep, ages ago.

As David Davis predicted it was the easiest trade deal in history, it was a glorous day.

Representatives from BMW and the major Prosecco producers were on hand to force the EU to rubber stamp whatever Britain wanted and the Eurocrats were so excited that Britain was going to munificently bestow a few billion of their worthless euros on them that they never even bothered to read the small print.

As expected Eire begged on bended knee to be allowed to rejoin the Union in order to share in our glorious new future thus instantly solving any potential border issue, this disappointed James Brokenshire as he had already come up with a genius but ever so simple solution had their been any unexpected hiccups, he'll go far and is a shoe-in for the post of Irish High Commisioner once direct rule of Dublin resumes from Westminister.

Meanwhile, before the EU had even finished squiggling their signatures, Liam Fox was literally mobbed by representatives from the US and China pleading for us to allow them to buy our exports, while a fistfight broke out between South Korea and Japan over who could get first dibs on our pigs ears, as Australia flicked through our catalogue of innovative jams, in what can only be described as childlike, open-mouthed wonder.

As our triumphant Brexiteers swept out of the hall, the EU27 broke into an impromptu round of "For he's a jolly good fellow" in enthusiastic if broken English and as a farewell surprise forced an envelope on a majestic Theresa May. With her usual quiet competence she quickly opened the envelope to find that a tearful European public had had a whipround as an act of gratitude for over a century of English all-round good eggness in standing up for freedom and democracy in the face of various kaisers, dictators and suchlike, something we are far too humble to ever mention ourselves. By happy coincidence the amount raised was the equivalent of £350m per week in perpetuity, enough to completely and permanently solve all the issues with the NHS. There wasn't a dry eye in the room by the end as the Europeans folded themselves into a group hug, comforting each other with the knowledge that although they may have lost the best of them but the relationship with the UK would remain deep, special and strong, and we'd continue to keep a benevolent eye on them.

In other news all the brown people in the UK have quietly packed their bags and returned home, leaving polite notes apologising for all the terrible inconvenience they've caused. As is historically the case, the sudden mass emigration of millions of people has caused the domestic UK economy to boom in a virtuous circle of full employment, low inflation and higher wages, for reasons I obviously don't need to explain.

How did you miss it? :?

That's what I thought.

Obviously, with over half the time between referendum and 29 March 2019 exit date already elapsed (51% to be precise), the preparations are well advanced. As you described, the UK quickly agreed basic principles. But then also went on to design the new procedures for customs, tracking immigrants etc and set about building the infrastructure and systems.

Setting a deadline of 4 months before exit day to complete this infrastructure was very sensible. The government is showing a lot of competence in staying on track for this November 2018 target date, because it will allow for testing prior to the 30 March 2019 start date - just like the Olympic Stadium was complete and held its first event four months before the July 2012 opening ceremony. Exporters and importers will be able to prepare with plenty of time before Brexit Day. No doubt there'll be one or two teething problems when it goes live, but at least there won't be queues of lorries from Dover to the M25.

But for lols, just imagine an alternative universe. Suppose by this stage the government had only agreed the most basic questions, such as the Ireland border, rights of EU citizens and the divorce costs! And was still negotiating complicated questions like the new EU trade deal! Just imagine if they were only then, with a year and four months to go, starting to design the complex new infrastructure!

Would be hard to imagine a government that incompetent. And if they were so incompetent they'd only settled the initial questions of NI, EU citizens and costs by now, they'd probably be too incompetent to agree the EU trade deal - let alone prepare for Brexit Day.

 

[Garrison]

I'm just pointing out that the Remain campaign spent more than the Leave one. And that's before you count the extra £9million plus spent by the government for the remain campaign. If leave did break the law and remain didn't, then there is something wrong with the law.

No you claimed Remain spent more than Leave and the question appears to be how the money was spent rather than the total amount, that is the Leave campaign may have have lied to the Electoral Commission the first time the commission looked into their finances, which is par for the course for Leave.

 

[Garrison]

Inevitably...

BBC News: Amsterdam wins bid to host EU medicines agency post-Brexit

"Amsterdam has won a vote to host the European Medicines Agency (EMA) which will relocate from London after the UK leaves the European Union.

The UK is losing both the EMA and the European Banking Authority (EBA) which employ around 1,000 people.

Ministers from the 27 EU countries remaining in the bloc after the UK departs in 2019 have taken part in the secret ballot.

They will now vote later on the new home for the EBA."

I recall the days in in the 1980s when (IIRC) ITV News used to tabulate job losses and creation on a virtually daily basis. I wonder if anyone is keeping a running tab of the ones due to Brexit?

Hardly worth worrying about, these losses will be obviously be offset by the exciting new opportunities about to open up for fruit pickers and hospital cleaners...

 

[Wudang]

And the EBA goes to Paris

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42050742

 

[ddt]

Inevitably...

BBC News: Amsterdam wins bid to host EU medicines agency post-Brexit

"Amsterdam has won a vote to host the European Medicines Agency (EMA) which will relocate from London after the UK leaves the European Union.

The UK is losing both the EMA and the European Banking Authority (EBA) which employ around 1,000 people.

Ministers from the 27 EU countries remaining in the bloc after the UK departs in 2019 have taken part in the secret ballot.

They will now vote later on the new home for the EBA."

I recall the days in in the 1980s when (IIRC) ITV News used to tabulate job losses and creation on a virtually daily basis. I wonder if anyone is keeping a running tab of the ones due to Brexit?

Thanks, Brexiteers, for 910 highly-skilled jobs at the EMA, plus countless others from pharma companies that will decided to also relocate (part of) their operations. But Brexit is still going to be a great success, or a MEGA success?

(Dutch media report there was some luck involved. The third and final vote was 13-13 between Amsterdam and Milan; the final decision was taken by drawing lots).

ETA:

And the EBA goes to Paris

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42050742

LOL, also decided by drawing lots.

 

[jimbob]

I'm going to post this exchange from Badscience

And it continues

But for lols, just imagine an alternative universe. Suppose by this stage the government had only agreed the most basic questions, such as the Ireland border, rights of EU citizens and the divorce costs! And was still negotiating complicated questions like the new EU trade deal! Just imagine if they were only then, with a year and four months to go, starting to design the complex new infrastructure!

Would be hard to imagine a government that incompetent. And if they were so incompetent they'd only settled the initial questions of NI, EU citizens and costs by now, they'd probably be too incompetent to agree the EU trade deal - let alone prepare for Brexit Day.

I'm afraid your partisan bias is showing again. Shame.

The very suggeston that there could be any government be so incompetent as to only manage to complete Phase I negotiations in the first year is frankly insulting.

You have to remember the Government chose the starting date for the two year Brexit countdown which meant they had all they time they needed to get all their ducks in a row and therefore hit the ground running, meaning the bulk of the negotiations could be sorted in the very first meeting. Later meetings, if required, would only be needed to tidy up some of the minor details.

The referendum was in the June, Davis suggested the pre-negotiaation planning should be sorted by September but May to her credit insisted on that extra 6 months to ensure she absolutely nailed it. I think she was overly cautious as you have to remember the Leave campaign have had the last 40 years to figure out what a post-EU Briain would look like, so all the intellectual heavy-lifting had already been done for her, to the point where most of the major Brexiteers were happy enough to simply walk away from it immediately after the referendum supremely confident that absolutely anybody would be able to dot-the-tees and cross-the-eyes on delivering a Red, White and Blue Brexit. Just look at the wealth of talent they had to call on; Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Priti Patel, Liam Fox, Neil Hamilton, Nigel Farage, Paul Nuttall, Mike Reed, Nick Griffin, Vladimir Putin, Ian Paisley Jr, Katie Hopkins, Nadie Dorries, Donald Trump, Melane Philips, some of the finest and most respected political minds of any generation. Even so, May chose to give her team an extra 6 months which they certainly didn't need, you don't get a reputation for being strong and stable for nothing. The negotiations were obviously going to be an absolute cakewalk, I mean what sort of dipstick would voluntarily trigger the Brexit countdown before figuring out exactly what they wanted?

But let us indulge your ridiculous scenario a little more. Lets assume May took leave of her senses and decided to trigger Bexit before she knew exactly what she wanted (presumably the very broad brushstrokes regarding customs unions, citizens rights and EFTA etc. were sorted out in the first 72 hours after the referendum). She would then have to do something baffling like I dunno ... immediately call an un-necessary election (which she has already she ruled out calling seven times previously ) ... I mean that would waste several months of precious negotiating time ... although I suppose you could argue the resulting landslide she'd get would perhaps be worth it, but I digress. Even with that big hole blown in her timeline she still has plenty of time to nail Phase I and move onto Phase II, everyone knows what the ultimate goal looks like, it's just a question of sequencing, short of having a bunch of complete dunces as negotiators that should be straightforward enough, and what sort of PM would allow these crucial negotiations to be handled by complete ignoramuses, she'd have to be some sort of malfunctioning animatronic waxwork advised by pot-plants to do that.

But like Alice lets try to believe 6 impossible things before Brexit. In this scenario the PM triggers Brexit prematurely, calls an un-necessary election and then sticks some mouth-breathing cretins in charge of negotiations. In this scenario the problems this causes would be obvious very early on, even the most committed Brexiteer has to be aware things aren't going to plan by at least September, certainly well before conference season obviously. For all our disagreements, we have to recognise the right-wing press and the Brexiteers are true patriots; they certainly tell us enough times and just look at the number of poppies they wear! Its unconscionable that they would do anything to harm the country they so loudly proclaim they love. Murdoch, Lord Rothermere, the Barclay Brothers, these are all people who are synonymous with putting the interests of Britain first and their support for democracy, honest jourrnalism and the rule of law is well-documented. In such an unlikely scenario these people would clearly call for the sacking of these "Enemies of the People" who were making such a hash of the negotiations and May would have no choice but to comply, I mean she has more to lose than most if Brexit turns into a fiasco. Similarly the whole referendum was about restoring British parliamentary democracy clearly every step would be scrutinised, debated and voted on in parliament to ensure it is done right, you can have a go at the Conservatives but as a decade of austerity proves they always put the interests of the country first before petty party politics and discedited ideological dogma, the Tory backbenchers would ensure a smooth negotiation.

No your whole idea rests on a mutually exclusive proposition. A government so incompetent it could only accomplish Phase I in the first year would be too incompetent to function as a government, you wouldn't be able to trust them to stick letters onto a backdrop, I mean where would they go for a summer holiday, the Golan Heights? It would never happen, I'd believe the Americans would elect an illiterate, inarticulate self-confessed sexual predator with ties to Russia POTUS before your bizarre flight of fantasy.

I'm sorry it just had to be said.

ETA: highlighting - ouch

Fair point, Little waster.

But in an infinity of multiverses, there might even be a version where all that happened! Lol, those alternate-British people would be totally **********!

What's more, suppose there was an alternative where they were already 51% through the time to Brexit but hadn't even negotiated Phase I... Of course, the government would have fallen long before this point. Unless (even more fantastic) the Labour leader was an intellectually-impaired 1970s leftie whose priority was renationalising the water companies and going to Cuba solidarity meetings. But most of the shadow cabinet would resign before supporting such a man and he'd be trounced in a general election. The fantasy would need this idiot to be suddenly popular for no good reason, perhaps with his own football chant sung by fanatical acolytes.

There is actually some less sarcastic analysis as well over there as one of the posters is in the EMA.

 

[Andy_Ross]

I'm just pointing out that the Remain campaign spent more than the Leave one. And that's before you count the extra £9million plus spent by the government for the remain campaign. If leave did break the law and remain didn't, then there is something wrong with the law.

No, the Government spent the money on the leaflet, not the remain campaign. If you want to blame someone you need to blame the government.

 

[ceptimus]

Remain spent more than Leave, even when you don't include the leaflet and other government remain-biassed spending.