Brexit: Now What? Part III

[ddt]

Oh dear looks like some of the terrible illegal immigrant figures may have been a tad wrong.

I've read earlier newspaper articles that said that the previous Home Secretary had an undue influence and pressured her civil servants to come up with figures that more suited her political aims. I think that Home Secretary was called Theresa May.

Is this in any way connected?

 

[Garrison]

So it turns out there may have been dirty dealings in the election campaign:

Tories probed over call centre use during election

If these allegations are proven then that makes manipulating an election another thing May and co are terrible at...

 

[Garrison]

May has apparently set a date for her resignation:

Theresa May sets date she'll quit as Prime Minister - giving herself time to see Britain through Brexit

I think she's being wildly optimistic.

 

[The Don]

Labour now want to remain in the single market, at least for a bit.

Unless there's some magical solution which allows single market membership without freedom of movement (and there's no indication of that), application of EU standards and laws - what will a Labour Brexit actually achieve ?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41064314

Not that I'm unhappy, IMO it's the least worst Brexit, but still a lot worse than not leaving the EU.

 

[jimbob]

Labour now want to remain in the single market, at least for a bit.

Unless there's some magical solution which allows single market membership without freedom of movement (and there's no indication of that), application of EU standards and laws - what will a Labour Brexit actually achieve ?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41064314

Not that I'm unhappy, IMO it's the least worst Brexit, but still a lot worse than not leaving the EU.

I was about to post that...

The cracks are starting to show

 

[ddt]

May has apparently set a date for her resignation:

Theresa May sets date she'll quit as Prime Minister - giving herself time to see Britain through Brexit

I think she's being wildly optimistic.

The Brexit negotiations are due to be finalized in March 2019, and Theresa May plans to resign in August 2019. So she wants to lead the British people out into the desert, but she won't wait until they rebel, nor will she give them the manna from heaven or lead them into the promised land of milk and honey? (the Biblical estimate of the time scale might be appropriate here).

 

[The Don]

Both sides in the Brexit negotiations are calling for the other side to pull their socks up:

The European Union's chief negotiator Michel Barnier has expressed concern about progress so far, as the third round of Brexit talks gets under way.

He warned that UK "ambiguity" must be removed and progress on "separation" issues made before any talks on the future EU-UK relationship.

For his part, UK Brexit Secretary David Davis said both sides had to show "flexibility and imagination".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41070227

Given that, according to David Davis, the ambiguity on the UK side is deliberate, I can understand the EU comments. OTOH it sounds like David Davis is asking for his cake and being able to eat it.

It was reported in the last edition of Private Eye that civil servants in his department David Davis has never worked more than three days a week since he joined the Brexit department - way to go to work in the country's interests.

 

[The Don]

The Brexit negotiations are due to be finalized in March 2019, and Theresa May plans to resign in August 2019. So she wants to lead the British people out into the desert, but she won't wait until they rebel, nor will she give them the manna from heaven or lead them into the promised land of milk and honey? (the Biblical estimate of the time scale might be appropriate here).

Sounds like each successive Conservative Party leader is going to take us one step further along the plank, waiting for their successor(s) to actually take us into the sea and drown.

That doesn't sound like "strong and stable" leadership to me

It also ensures that Conservative minds will be on the upcoming leadership challenge during the lead up to Brexit and not Brexit itself. No prizes for guessing what Davis, Fox and Johnson's primary focus is going to be.

 

[McHrozni]

Labour now want to remain in the single market, at least for a bit.

Unless there's some magical solution which allows single market membership without freedom of movement (and there's no indication of that), application of EU standards and laws - what will a Labour Brexit actually achieve ?

'Labour' Brexit, where UK goes for single market membership, the Norway option or something very similar to it, fulfills the democratic mandate of the referendum. Everything that is supposed to follow was decided by, essentially, decree by the PM who failed to even win a clear parliamentary majority in the snap election she called.

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

In other news, Frankfurt is doing well out of Brexit:

Many banks' patience with the protracted Brexit negotiations, through which regulatory frameworks for foreign exchange trading and conditions for access to the Single Market must be thrashed out, seems to have run out.

Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and Standard Chartered are among those who have chosen Frankfurt as their new European base, while others such as Goldman Sachs and UBS have promised to move thousands of jobs to the German hub.

Predictions for the number of bankers set to descend on Frankfurt vary wildly, from tens of thousands, up to 100,000.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41026575

Note that at this stage it is the uncertainty, due in the main to David Davis' "policy" of ambiguity, which is causing the flow of jobs out of London, not the effects of Brexit itself.

I'm sure the Brexit good news will be coming soon

 

[GnaGnaMan]

Note that at this stage it is the uncertainty, due in the main to David Davis' "policy" of ambiguity, which is causing the flow of jobs out of London, not the effects of Brexit itself.

I'm sure the Brexit good news will be coming soon

You can't pin this on one person. It's the whole British system.

Anything that looks like compromise is not acceptable to the hard right radicals, which unfortunately includes much of the press. Any compromise needs to be accepted by the tory party. It's doesn't matter if it would gain majority support in the whole nation or even across parties. The lunatics have taken over the asylum.

 

[Information Analyst]

The horse meat, tainted eggs, Grenfell fire, and anything else that's gone wrong over the last few decades has occurred while we are part of the EU and operating under its regulations.

It would seem that the horse meat and tainted eggs issues* arose because individuals or companies wilfully breached EU regulations. I'm not sure how that invalidates such regulation or the EU itself, as the same individuals or companies could have similarly breached UK-only regulations. As The Don says, Grenfell is a question of UK regulations.

 

[ddt]

Sounds like each successive Conservative Party leader is going to take us one step further along the plank, waiting for their successor(s) to actually take us into the sea and drown.

That doesn't sound like "strong and stable" leadership to me

IOW, she just announced when she's going to pass the poisoned chalice.

It also ensures that Conservative minds will be on the upcoming leadership challenge during the lead up to Brexit and not Brexit itself. No prizes for guessing what Davis, Fox and Johnson's primary focus is going to be.

To be as vague to the electorate and to the Tory membership as they are now to Michel Barnier.

 

[ceptimus]

The EU's position on the "negotiations" is ludicrous. They want the UK to agree to all their demands before they'll discuss anything else.

The EU demands concerning the Irish border "negotiations" are particularly nonsensical. They won't engage in trade discussions until border issues are agreed, but it's impossible to discuss border issues in any meaningful way without first agreeing what the trading relationship will be after Brexit.

 

[ddt]

The EU's position on the "negotiations" is ludicrous. They want the UK to agree to all their demands before they'll discuss anything else.

That's a lie. The EU has compiled 20-odd reports with their positions on the various dossiers. The three Brexiteers have put to paper - nothing. You can't negotiate with someone if they don't clarify their position first.

 

[The Don]

That's a lie. The EU has compiled 20-odd reports with their positions on the various dossiers. The three Brexiteers have put to paper - nothing. You can't negotiate with someone if they don't clarify their position first.

From the proponents of Brexit ? Say it ain't so

 

[ddt]

From the proponents of Brexit ? Say it ain't so

To be fair: from one Brexit proponent. There weren't many to begin with in this thread, but the other ones seem to have fled.

 

[ceptimus]

The UK government have published several papers giving their vision for Brexit. Unlike the EU, the UK negotiators haven't demanded that the EU agree to all UK demands before anything else can be discussed.

I always maintained, in this thread and its predecessors, that the EU wouldn't negotiate in good faith and that the only reasonable response from the UK would be to walk away - that day draws nearer as the EU refuse to negotiate in a sensible manner.

As for labeling what I wrote as 'a lie' - you should retract that assertion.

The EU have repeatedly stated that they will not negotiate about most issues until their demands in three key areas are met. They expect the UK to agree to paying a huge sum to the EU. They expect the UK to agree what happens to EU nationals living in the UK (they want the EU court to still override UK law!). They want to settle the Irish border issue. As I said (truthfully) before, the EU basically expect the UK to agree to their demands without knowing what, if anything, the UK will get in return. That's no way to conduct what they laughingly call "negotiations".

 

[The Don]

The UK government have published several papers giving their vision for Brexit.

Not by the standard of anything that would be considered a paper they haven't. What the UK government has committed to paper has been condemned as vague and incomplete by pretty much all commentators (including many who are pro-Brexit).

 

[ddt]

The UK government have published several papers giving their vision for Brexit.

So what's the UK position on the various dossiers that the EU has published position papers on? Please link us to those papers.

Unlike the EU, the UK negotiators haven't demanded that the EU agree to all UK demands before anything else can be discussed.

Please link us to any statement of Barnier or another EU official that he wants the UK to agree to all the EU's demands, which is what you imply there.

The only thing Barnier has said is that the negotiations are first about the divorce, and only when that's finalized we can talk about the future EU-UK relations. That seems only sensible to me.

I always maintained, in this thread and its predecessors, that the EU wouldn't negotiate in good faith and that the only reasonable response from the UK would be to walk away - that day draws nearer as the EU refuse to negotiate in a sensible manner.

I think it's all to clear to anyone but the most deluded Brexiteer which party is not negotiating in good faith at the moment.

The EU have repeatedly stated that they will not negotiate about most issues until their demands in three key areas are met. They expect the UK to agree to paying a huge sum to the EU. They expect the UK to agree what happens to EU nationals living in the UK (they want the EU court to still override UK law!). They want to settle the Irish border issue.

Those are just three of the 20-odd dossiers that constitute the divorce, and the EU has made their ideas clear on them. So what's the stance of the UK on the first point, the sum to be paid? Has the UK already said how much of that they're willing to pay, if any?

As I said (truthfully) before, the EU basically expect the UK to agree to their demands without knowing what, if anything, the UK will get in return. That's no way to conduct what they laughingly call "negotiations".

What do you mean, "in return"? You want out of a contract, you pay for it. And the dossier about EU nationals living in the UK is as much a dossier about UK nationals living in the EU.