Brexit: Now What? Part III

[The Don]

Still waiting to hear about all these benefits that will come the UK's way post-Brexit.

So far MikeG has pointed out a couple, the ability to reduce VAT as the government sees fit (though I don't see the likelihood that the economy is going to be in the kind of shape that tax reductions are going to be the order of the day being particularly high) and that the government can bring in the best and brightest from all around the world (though reducing numbers and keeping brown and Eastern European people out seems to be the order of the day), but nothing too concrete.

Instead we have a variety of proposals to try and mitigate the effects of Brexit which at their best will result in a situation only a little bit worse than the current one.

 

[McHrozni]

Still waiting to hear about all these benefits that will come the UK's way post-Brexit.

So far MikeG has pointed out a couple, the ability to reduce VAT as the government sees fit (though I don't see the likelihood that the economy is going to be in the kind of shape that tax reductions are going to be the order of the day being particularly high) and that the government can bring in the best and brightest from all around the world (though reducing numbers and keeping brown and Eastern European people out seems to be the order of the day), but nothing too concrete.

Wouldn't UK be able to do both of those anyway if it chose? The minimum standard VAT EU imposes is 15%, British is 20%. EU does not prevent (or indeed limit) member states from recruiting new citizens abroad.

So, um, how are those upsides at all?

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

Wouldn't UK be able to do both of those anyway if it chose? The minimum standard VAT EU imposes is 15%, British is 20%. EU does not prevent (or indeed limit) member states from recruiting new citizens abroad.

So, um, how are those upsides at all?

McHrozni

Removing VAT entirely from feminine sanitary products is a cause celebre where EU membership apparently prevents it (instead it's 5%)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tampon_tax

Of course persuading the EU to zero rate feminine sanitary products might have been a better way to do that.

Regarding the immigration argument, this presupposes that there is a maximum number of immigrants that the UK can withstand and so the "unrestricted" immigration from the EU means that in theory we could be missing out on some talent from outside the Eu because we're "full". IMO this argument is rubbish, you can get qualified people from overseas but it's a bit of a hassle.

As to how they're upsides, you'll have to take that up with the people making the argument - I'm merely parroting it.....

 

[The Don]

Just picked this up....

This morning Brexit Secretary David Davis said a new customs system would be in place by early 2019.

There aren't enough laughing dogs to cover this. I cannot recall of any large government system which was fully operable the same decade as planned, much less on the date proposed.

Those closer to the project aren't so sure.

It appears he was referring to the upgrade of HMRC's customs processing system, Customs Handling of Import and Export Freight (Chief), which is more than 20 years old and was due to be replaced even before the Brexit vote.

The new system is called CDS - Customs Declaration Service - and is being developed by IBM. HMRC admits that it may now have to accommodate five times as many customs declarations as originally envisaged, but says it's confident that it will be ready in time.

.....which in my experience means that there isn't a hope in hell that it will be fully operational. It may be able to cope with small volumes of limited transactions but it will be in "pilot" mode for years.

Last month the National Audit Office said HMRC faced "some significant challenges to deliver the programme within the current timetable" and gave it an amber risk rating.

....which means it's absolutely ******

And even if the impossible happens and the upgraded systems are in place and all the processes and procedures around them are working as intended.....

But even if the system is up and running with all exporters on board, that won't be enough to create a frictionless border.

Ports like Dover will need to install new technology, including number plate recognition, to match the lorries driving on and off ferries with the customs declarations lodged in the CDS system.

This is not cutting edge technology and is in use elsewhere in the world, but HMRC seems dubious that it will be in place by March 2019 and says it would benefit from an implementation period.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-40939816

tl;dr version. If you're planning to drive to France in early 2019 better get in the queue on the M20 sometime in October 2018

 

[Tolls]

They'll switch the thing on and it will spend the entire first week crashing under a load that was "unexpected". And that would be in the situation for which it was originally designed, ie us in the EU. A Brexit border will be even more entertaining.

 

[Henri McPhee]

There's European Political Union ?


And of course the government with its usual Brexit-related incompetence has been focused on the small (and shrinking) parts of our economy that deal with manufacturing, agriculture and fishing. The seem to be completely ignoring the service sector that accounts for 80% of the economy (and something like 200% of the economic growth).

Man cannot live by speculation in currency and property alone.

 

[The Don]

Man cannot live by speculation in currency and property alone.

True, but we're talking about the service industry here of which speculation in currency is a tiny fraction and property speculation has more of an effect on the construction sector.

You really need to educate yourself a little better.

Also, any response to the queries directed your way about how to have a common market without having common legislation or are you just going to Gish-gallop past that one as usual ?

 

[ddt]

Today the UK Government it going to release its plans for the post-Brexit Irish border.

We're out of the EU, out of the EEA, out of the customs union but apparently there will be a completely open border with Ireland and no additional customs border at the Irish Sea.

The latter sounds utterly unrealistic, and to realize the second-to-last, I can only think of one way to achieve that. It's time the EU responded in kind to these inanities. London wants free travel between Northern Ireland and the Republic? Fine, then the EU should simply recognize, or threaten to recognize, the Republic's claims to NI.

 

[ddt]

I can't see why there can't still be a competitive common market without all this European Political Union baloney. That's what the public voted for in 1974 and in 2016.

The public in 1974 damned well knew that the EEC would more tightly integrate in due course. Politicians were very open about that.

 

[Henri McPhee]

The public in 1974 damned well knew that the EEC would more tightly integrate in due course. Politicians were very open about that.

I disagree. It's true Ted Heath in the House of Commons frankly said in answer to a question that Europe would end up with a single government, but he never mentioned decisions would be taken behind closed doors by the European Commission. Ken Clarke categorically said there would not be a European Political Union except when he was speaking in continental Europe. Tony Benn said there would be a banker's Europe which is true and what has happened.

I agree a lot of the troubles in Northern Ireland went when the narrow-minded Irish Catholics found themselves being subsidised by the EU.

Banking is a useful and lucrative business but since Brexit most bank branches are now closing. The libraries and public toilets in Bristol UK are now closing so that the money can be spent on those defective Lockheed Martin F-35 warplanes for the new aircraft carriers. Those F-35 warplanes cost $100 million each and now extra charges for them are being inflicted. I don't think it's progress.

 

[Klimax]

The public in 1974 damned well knew that the EEC would more tightly integrate in due course. Politicians were very open about that.

That's too long ago...

BTW: Your PM box is apparently full and you are wanted in game thread.

 

[The Don]

Ah, the usual levels of accuracy....

I disagree. It's true Ted Heath in the House of Commons frankly said in answer to a question that Europe would end up with a single government, but he never mentioned decisions would be taken behind closed doors by the European Commission. Ken Clarke categorically said there would not be a European Political Union except when he was speaking in continental Europe. Tony Benn said there would be a banker's Europe which is true and what has happened.

And it seems that both Heath and Clarke were right.

I agree a lot of the troubles in Northern Ireland went when the narrow-minded Irish Catholics found themselves being subsidised by the EU.

Interesting alternative narrative which seems to have no basis in fact.

Banking is a useful and lucrative business but since Brexit most bank branches are now closing.

Brexit hasn't happened yet but assuming that you mean since the Brexit vote. Where's your evidence that most branches are closing.

The libraries and public toilets in Bristol UK are now closing so that the money can be spent on those defective Lockheed Martin F-35 warplanes for the new aircraft carriers. Those F-35 warplanes cost $100 million each and now extra charges for them are being inflicted. I don't think it's progress.

These two things aren't really linked.

 

[jimbob]

The latter sounds utterly unrealistic, and to realize the second-to-last, I can only think of one way to achieve that. It's time the EU responded in kind to these inanities. London wants free travel between Northern Ireland and the Republic? Fine, then the EU should simply recognize, or threaten to recognize, the Republic's claims to NI.

I have said as much in the thread about Theresa May:

What I want to know is how they're going to get the Hard Brexit with Soft Border that their DUP allies are clamouring for.

That's easy.

A united Ireland whilst the rest of the UK has a hard Brexit.

Probably not what the DUP wants.

 

[ddt]

That's too long ago...

Henri explicitly mentioned the 1975 referendum.

I disagree. It's true Ted Heath in the House of Commons frankly said in answer to a question that Europe would end up with a single government, but he never mentioned decisions would be taken behind closed doors by the European Commission. Ken Clarke categorically said there would not be a European Political Union except when he was speaking in continental Europe. Tony Benn said there would be a banker's Europe which is true and what has happened.

You're trying to play it down.
https://infacts.org/mythbusts/voters-werent-conned-1975-referendum/:

These claims don’t stand up. Voters in 1975 were asked if they wanted to “stay in the European Community (the common market)”. But the debate was not simply about economics. The Yes campaign refer to the benefits for safety and security. The “political case” was “paramount”, said Margaret Thatcher. A few years before, Prime Minister Edward Heath had spoken of a “united Europe” and a “European destiny” – and in 1973 he stated in the Illustrated London News that “the Community we are joining is far more than a common market. It is a community in the full sense of that term”, citing the bloc’s ambitions in the field of environmental, social and vocational training policy. The Times editorial on referendum day referred in glowing terms to campaign speeches that had given a “sense of European development as an ideal”, and agreed we were part of a “European family”.

and

In 1970, Foreign Secretary Sir Alec Douglas-Home acknowledged – and seemed to welcome – that the institutions would evolve. The UK government’s 1971 White Paper said it was “inevitable” Europe’s external policies would broaden as interests harmonised, arguing the UK should be on the inside when that happened. Further new ideas were being sketched out even before the referendum: in 1972, EU leaders, including Heath, called for for an EU environment policy, economic and monetary union, and transformation into a “European Union”.

Politicians and political commentators were clear about the fact that the EC would be an ever closer union

I agree a lot of the troubles in Northern Ireland went when the narrow-minded Irish Catholics found themselves being subsidised by the EU.

In light of the current green energy scandal in NI that is a very ironic statement. Why don't you include in your statement those murderous bigots who abuse our royal colours?

 

[The Don]

More "ready, fire, aim" from Her Majesty's government.

The government plans to keep visa-free travel to the UK for EU visitors after Brexit, the BBC understands.

But if visitors from EU countries wanted to work, study or settle in the UK they would have to apply for permission, under the proposals.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40957301

So if that's what we want, no doubt we have detailed proposals about how it would work in order to persuade the EU that it's worth doing....

Plans for the UK's immigration system are due to be outlined in the autumn.

....ah, so that's a "no" then

It's the opposite of the Sex Pistol's Anarchy in the UK lyric

"Don't know what I want...
...but I know how to get it"

 

[Information Analyst]

The latter sounds utterly unrealistic, and to realize the second-to-last, I can only think of one way to achieve that. It's time the EU responded in kind to these inanities. London wants free travel between Northern Ireland and the Republic? Fine, then the EU should simply recognize, or threaten to recognize, the Republic's claims to NI.

Free movement of people between Ireland and the UK long pre-dates the EEA/EU. It's ironic, thought, that previously Ireland was more picky about who counted as a "British citizen" for those purposes, but now it looks like the reverse is going to the case.

 

[Information Analyst]

I agree a lot of the troubles in Northern Ireland went when the narrow-minded Irish Catholics found themselves being subsidised by the EU.

Wow! Just... wow!

 

[Klimax]

Henri explicitly mentioned the 1975 referendum.
...

I know. I guess I should have used a smiley there.

And get to this thread ASAP!

 

[Henri McPhee]

I don't want a United States of Europe if that's not too academic for this forum.

 

[Hellbound]

More "ready, fire, aim" from Her Majesty's government.

Actually, from the comments here, isn't more of "Ready, Fire, Aim!"