Brexit: Now What? Part II

[Craig B]

It would be interesting to say the least.

McHrozni

Bloomberg's Brexit Bulletin is today speculating along those lines.

A rebellion is already brewing within the ranks of the premier’s own Conservative Party, report Bloomberg’s Tim Ross and Alex Morales. At least six of its lawmakers are uniting with the opposition Labour Party to demand May publishes an official government document detailing her negotiating goals.

The theory is that a so-called white paper could limit her room to maneuver in the talks. With May having a slim working majority in the House of Commons of just 16, it would take only a small uprising from her own side for her to lose a vote on the issue. That could serve as a reminder that her control of Brexit and indeed power could prove tenuous as the exit talks progress.​

 

[McHrozni]

Bloomberg's Brexit Bulletin is today speculating along those lines.

A rebellion is already brewing within the ranks of the premier’s own Conservative Party, report Bloomberg’s Tim Ross and Alex Morales. At least six of its lawmakers are uniting with the opposition Labour Party to demand May publishes an official government document detailing her negotiating goals.

The theory is that a so-called white paper could limit her room to maneuver in the talks. With May having a slim working majority in the House of Commons of just 16, it would take only a small uprising from her own side for her to lose a vote on the issue. That could serve as a reminder that her control of Brexit and indeed power could prove tenuous as the exit talks progress.​

Well, that is how democracy and checks and balances are supposed to work. If one branch of government goes off it's rockers, the other two are supposed to keep it in check. The Juridical branch did its' bare minimum and now it's up to the Legislative to pick up the slack and hold the executive leash.

The majority is tentative at best and can be upset by no more than 9 defectors, out of well over 300 MPs, most of whom are Bremainers. Don and others who are in position to do so, check which ones are nearing retirement and lobby them for some sanity. Allegedly six are ready to defect, you just need to find three more.

Having to create an actual plan that has to be realistic is certainly beyond the skills and capabilities of Theresa May and her cabinet of clowns.
Which could have been her plan all along, but is backfiring ... unlikely I know, but within the realm of possibility

McHrozni

 

[Darat]

...snip...

Corbyn has Labour voting to support Brexit in any case (the craven incompetent) so even if there is a rebellion in Labour and Tory ranks it'll still pass handily

"Craven" - now I don't want to leave the EU but the leave side did win the referendum. As much as I have fantasies of the MPs telling us that we don't know what's good for us and not leaving the EU that really would be undemocratic and undermine our system of governance. So I can't criticise Corbyn for voting for leave and telling his MPs they must abide by the referendum vote (I can criticise him for a lot of other things....).

Personally I would like to see parliament forcing a final referendum once we know the "deal" we will have when we leave (and of course that assumes the EU will let us do that after article 50 is invoked).

 

[Garrison]

"Craven" - now I don't want to leave the EU but the leave side did win the referendum. As much as I have fantasies of the MPs telling us that we don't know what's good for us and not leaving the EU that really would be undemocratic and undermine our system of governance. So I can't criticise Corbyn for voting for leave and telling his MPs they must abide by the referendum vote (I can criticise him for a lot of other things....).

Personally I would like to see parliament forcing a final referendum once we know the "deal" we will have when we leave (and of course that assumes the EU will let us do that after article 50 is invoked).

Any agreement needs to be vetted by the Office for Budget Responsibility and voted on accordingly by parliament, which is exactly what May has been so desperate to avoid.

 

[CapelDodger]

Maybe. But you don't need that many to rebel to throw a spanner in the workings of Brexit.

Just one, at this point, would be a crack in the dike. Two, a larger crack. Three and you've got a movement ...

 

[Lothian]

"Craven" - now I don't want to leave the EU but the leave side did win the referendum. As much as I have fantasies of the MPs telling us that we don't know what's good for us and not leaving the EU that really would be undemocratic and undermine our system of governance. So I can't criticise Corbyn for voting for leave and telling his MPs they must abide by the referendum vote (I can criticise him for a lot of other things....).

Surely it would be democratic for MPs to vote 337:313 for triggering the article.

 

[3point14]

Any agreement needs to be vetted by the Office for Budget Responsibility and voted on accordingly by parliament, which is exactly what May has been so desperate to avoid.

So much more up to speed now, thank you.

 

[Craig B]

Personally I would like to see parliament forcing a final referendum once we know the "deal" we will have when we leave (and of course that assumes the EU will let us do that after article 50 is invoked).

I very much agree with that, and Corbyn should be striving along these lines in Parliament. At the very least it would force the PM to admit that once she has triggered the Art 50 process then leaving the EU will be obligatory regardless of the conditions that the UK will face at the end of the two year process.

If May does have to say that, then a move to oppose Brexit would be more justifiable, referendum or no referendum, because nobody could have voted intentionally to put the country into such a position, except xenophobes who would literally embrace ruin just to keep foreigners in their place; and I don't think that the majority of the population belongs to that persuasion.

 

[CapelDodger]

"Craven" - now I don't want to leave the EU but the leave side did win the referendum.

Not in 1975 they didn't. Leavers insisted on more referendums until they got the result they wanted, and now insist there should be no more.

As much as I have fantasies of the MPs telling us that we don't know what's good for us and not leaving the EU that really would be undemocratic and undermine our system of governance.

It would affirm our system of governance - representative democracy. The EU referendum has undermined it.

So I can't criticise Corbyn for voting for leave and telling his MPs they must abide by the referendum vote (I can criticise him for a lot of other things....).

I hear tell that Corbyn has defied a three-line whip over 500 times. Just saying.

Personally I would like to see parliament forcing a final referendum once we know the "deal" we will have when we leave (and of course that assumes the EU will let us do that after article 50 is invoked).

It would suit me too, and the EU, I'm sure. Leavers would be carrying the baggage of all their lies before the 2016 referendum and would have a very hard time winning one when voters know what they're voting on - the demographic imperative would see to that, apart from anything else. This why Leavers will fight tooth and nail to prevent another vote, of course.

 

[CapelDodger]

Having to create an actual plan that has to be realistic is certainly beyond the skills and capabilities of Theresa May and her cabinet of clowns.

Quite. Running the country day-to-day is proving beyond them.

 

[uke2se]

"Craven" - now I don't want to leave the EU but the leave side did win the referendum. As much as I have fantasies of the MPs telling us that we don't know what's good for us and not leaving the EU that really would be undemocratic and undermine our system of governance. So I can't criticise Corbyn for voting for leave and telling his MPs they must abide by the referendum vote (I can criticise him for a lot of other things....).

Personally I would like to see parliament forcing a final referendum once we know the "deal" we will have when we leave (and of course that assumes the EU will let us do that after article 50 is invoked).

The referendum was advisory. Each MP should vote his/her conciense - of course considering the referendum. If leaving the EU seems catastrophic, they should vote to remain.

 

[Garrison]

The referendum was advisory. Each MP should vote his/her conciense - of course considering the referendum. If leaving the EU seems catastrophic, they should vote to remain.

The referendum lacked any context. Did people vote leave to stop immigration? To free up money for public services? To get rid of the EU 'red tape' while retaining the Single market? And for that matter how many used it as a protest vote, expecting Remain to win regardless?

it's parliament's role to apply the context and examine the merits of May's plan and any deal eventually reached based on the likely impact on the UK. Groups like the OBR need to be engaged to provide an impartial assessment MPs can use as basis to make their decisions.

 

[uke2se]

The referendum lacked any context. Did people vote leave to stop immigration? To free up money for public services? To get rid of the EU 'red tape' while retaining the Single market? And for that matter how many used it as a protest vote, expecting Remain to win regardless?

it's parliament's role to apply the context and examine the merits of May's plan and any deal eventually reached based on the likely impact on the UK. Groups like the OBR need to be engaged to provide an impartial assessment MPs can use as basis to make their decisions.

Yes, that too.

 

[Lothian]

The referendum was advisory. Each MP should vote his/her conciense -

I believe that consciences are handed in when you take up the role of an MP and only given back when you leave.

 

[Andy_Ross]

No worries, Trump says we will have a free trade treaty in about 90 days.

 

[ceptimus]

To get rid of the EU 'red tape' while retaining the Single market?

How would that even be possible? Being in the single market means dealing with all the red tape.

 

[Amazer]

How would that even be possible? Being in the single market means dealing with all the red tape.

Well, once you are out of the single market and the custom union you'll be reintroduced to all kinds of other red tape when selling into that particular market. Good luck with that.

 

[ceptimus]

Correct.

The difference is that when you're in the single market you have to deal with the EU red tape always - even when you're only selling stuff at home or to non-EU countries.

Once you're out of the single market you only have to deal with the red tape of foreign countries if and when you sell to them.

Anyway, the point I was making was that one of the reasons that Garrison suggested may have been in the minds of those voting 'leave' was nonsensical.

 

[abaddon]

Correct.

The difference is that when you're in the single market you have to deal with the EU red tape always - even when you're only selling stuff at home or to non-EU countries.

Once you're out of the single market you only have to deal with the red tape of foreign countries if and when you sell to them.

Anyway, the point I was making was that one of the reasons that Garrison suggested may have been in the minds of those voting 'leave' was nonsensical.

Once out of the EU that is ALL countries. Every last one of them. Brexit will not reduce red tape, it will increase it.

 

[Jules Galen]

Well, once you are out of the single market and the custom union you'll be reintroduced to all kinds of other red tape when selling into that particular market. Good luck with that.

Exactly. The so-called "EU Red Tape" may be a burden...but compared to what else?