Brexit: Now What? Part II

[Klimax]

All Conservatives will vote to leave - regardless of their own personal convictions or the views and/or wellbeing of their constituents as will the Corbynites.

Once again IMO 52-48 is not a swingeing mandate especially when at least some of the 52 didn't envisage a Hard Brexit (and a fair few of them will have dropped off the perch since the referendum) . Sometimes our representatives have to consider the good of the country.

What's worse: being unlisted or being defeated? Campaign presenting them both options may make it very fun decision time for them. (And yb extension, for May)

 

[The Don]

What's worse: being unlisted or being defeated?

To be honest, it's the former. In most safe Conservative constituencies they could stick a blue rosette on an inanimate object and it'll still cruise to victory. Add to the mix a Labour Party which is hurtling to electoral irrelevance under Corbyn's misrule and a Liberal Democrat party still tainted by their coalition with the Conservatives and IMO if you're a sitting Conservative MP and you manage to keep the constituency party happy then you'll keep your job at the election.

It does however seem to put the lie to the notion that politicians are in the pockets of "big business". Most large businesses do not want Brexit and certainly do not want a Hard Brexit (unless of course their mouths are stuffed with gold).

Campaign presenting them both options may make it very fun decision time for them. (And yb extension, for May)

We'll already have Brexited for better or worse by election time. Indeed losing an election just after a catastrophic Hard Brexit may be just what the doctor ordered for the Conservatives - let another party deal with, and carry the can for, the consequences.

 

[Garrison]

The court decision will not stop article 50 being triggered, but it does establish the referendum result isn't a blank cheque for May to do as she pleases. That's important in the face of a PM who seems alarmingly keen to avoid any parliamentary accountability on her plans.

 

[Jules Galen]

I am not happy at all about Brexit for I think it leaves Britain economically vulnerable. The UK is no "go-it-alone" Switzerland, and never will be - the people who own the UK will never let the British become so independant. As a result, I believe Britain is going to have to closely align with someone else, and this will probably be the good 'ole USA. And if you think the EU Admin was a PITA, then wait until you see what the psychos in Washington got in store for the UK.

This whole situation is so sad.

 

[CapelDodger]

It'll be interesting. If we could negotiate it tomorrow then both sides would probably be desperate to do a deal on any terms and you would probably get a very open agreement with minimal if any tariffs across the board. Whatever deal was actually agreed wouldn't matter because both sides would just lie about what it means in reality.

Of course the UK can't sign anything until it's out of the EU by which time Trump will already be knee deep in his Presidency so there will be less urgency to get a deal under his belt.

Since nothing will be signed until the UK actually leaves boths sides can declare that it's a great deal for both countries. Then, when the time comes, Trump can - and I don't doubt he will - demand changes.

An unsigned deal is as good as Trump's word. Which is to say, worthless.

 

[CapelDodger]

I am not happy at all about Brexit for I think it leaves Britain economically vulnerable. The UK is no "go-it-alone" Switzerland, and never will be - the people who own the UK will never let the British become so independant. As a result, I believe Britain is going to have to closely align with someone else, and this will probably be the good 'ole USA. And if you think the EU Admin was a PITA, then wait until you see what the psychos in Washington got in store for the UK.

Hello GM food, goodbye government-funded abortion advice.

This whole situation is so sad.

Two Acts of farce and a Third Act of tragedy.

 

[CapelDodger]

No it's not, mostly seems to reflect the fact that the markets are more scared of Trump than of Brexit, but it's hardly reassuring.

The same concerns, I suspect, but very different scales.

 

[CapelDodger]

Welcome to Jojo or Ping-Pong of Currencies. Up, down, up, down... It will be very nice for British economy. For various study options you can check out Czech currency over years - including bloody idiotic intervention by Czech National Bank.

You're in for very fun times ahead.

Been there, done that, most recently in 1992. Sterling needs no instructions on ping-pong, believe me.

 

[CapelDodger]

No, no, you don't understand. Corbyn's secret ambition is to write "The Condition of the Working Class in England, revisited 180 years later".

Either he is totally blind to the fact that in the current political climate in the UK, the EU is the best safeguard for civil liberties, protection of workers' rights and the social security system; or he thinks that immiseration is a necessary condition for the workers to again become aware of their historical duty of the proletarian revolution.

I had this out with some Socialist Workers in town before the vote, and it was like talking to a wall. (It was also like talking to the Socialist Workers of the mid-70's - same age-range, all male, same vocabulary, same everything. As if they'd fallen through Cardiff's famous space-time rift.) Our workers' rights will be better than their workers rights after the Revolution, because they are a capitalist conspiracy.

I think the Left has a future in Europe, but not in the UK.

 

[CapelDodger]

He broke out of the TPP out of "America first" consideration. The only way I see him doing a favorable deal with the UK, would be to "stick one" into the EU. But that would be very obvious and very bad policies.

Which makes them no less likely.

I'm sure Trump would love to see more countries leave the EU, and making a generous deal with the UK in principle (but not in practice) would contribute to that. As I point out above, it can always be pulled before it actually takes effect in a couple of years.

More likely it would be a deal stacked in US favor.

That's how it would come back to the table, no doubt.

 

[CapelDodger]

To be honest, it's the former. In most safe Conservative constituencies they could stick a blue rosette on an inanimate object and it'll still cruise to victory. Add to the mix a Labour Party which is hurtling to electoral irrelevance under Corbyn's misrule and a Liberal Democrat party still tainted by their coalition with the Conservatives and IMO if you're a sitting Conservative MP and you manage to keep the constituency party happy then you'll keep your job at the election.

And there's the rub. At the constituency level small-to-medium business-persons have a significant presence in the Tory Party, and that's where the blue rosette is bestowed.

 

[Jules Galen]

Hello GM food, goodbye government-funded abortion advice.

Two Acts of farce and a Third Act of tragedy.

Hey CapelDodger,

Fortuitous that someone from Wales should answer me for it Wales I was thinking about earlier today when I read an article about Aibus' concerns about Brexit and how it might might affect their ability to make and deliver wings.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-38731306

I don't know if you are aware of this, but Airbus' wing=-production facilities in Wales are not only the most advanced in the world - easily 10 years ahead of anyone - and as a result, the wing factories there are like international aviation treasures. I mean, while Boeing putters around trying to figure out how to build their first composite wing for the 777x (the Boeing 787s Composite Wing was actually designed and built by Mitsubishi Heavy in Japan), Airbus is perfecting it's fourth generation composite wing (A400 - A380 - A350v1 - A350v2) for flight on the Airbus' A350-1000, and then back-fitting to the Airbus A350-900. It's the most advanced wing in the world....Period!

It would suck if all that started coming to an end, because I don't know how the Wales Wing Works could be replaced without a lot of "wailing and gnashing of teeth" so-to-speak. Talent like exists in Wales right now takes decades to cultivate. Really sad. Hopefully, a resolution can be found.

 

[CapelDodger]

I don't know if you are aware of this, but Airbus' wing=-production facilities in Wales are not only the most advanced in the world ...

It's a great asset. You're probably also aware of the major EU contribution to the transport infrastructure which made it possible. At that time the area qualified for assistance as a lesser-developed region in Europe, as I understand it.

I wonder how they voted up there? A strange bunch, the North Welsh.

 

[Jules Galen]

It's a great asset. You're probably also aware of the major EU contribution to the transport infrastructure which made it possible. At that time the area qualified for assistance as a lesser-developed region in Europe, as I understand it.

I wonder how they voted up there? A strange bunch, the North Welsh.

No...I'm totally ignorant of that. I'll have to do some more reading.

Ya' know, I figure the EU isn't perfect. I'm sure it's a Bureaucratic Nightmare and has got a lot of unwanted baggage. But, si is all Big Government and ya' need a Big Government to run something like the EU - because it's BIG!

But less than perfect, or far from perfect, is not neccessarily the antithesis of good. So I was shocked that so many pundits figured the UK would be the first of many governments to leave the EU. I don't think it will happen. Mankind hasn't seen anything like the EU evolve since Ancient Rome - and Rome had to conquer and subdue. The EU...warts and all....is 1000-year-dream made real and done peacefully. So I can't imagine most Europeans giving up such a thing without a lot of consideration and council beforehand.

I could be wrong.

 

[McHrozni]

To be honest, it's the former. In most safe Conservative constituencies they could stick a blue rosette on an inanimate object and it'll still cruise to victory. Add to the mix a Labour Party which is hurtling to electoral irrelevance under Corbyn's misrule and a Liberal Democrat party still tainted by their coalition with the Conservatives and IMO if you're a sitting Conservative MP and you manage to keep the constituency party happy then you'll keep your job at the election.

It does however seem to put the lie to the notion that politicians are in the pockets of "big business". Most large businesses do not want Brexit and certainly do not want a Hard Brexit (unless of course their mouths are stuffed with gold).

Tories have over 300 MPs, right? How many are due to retire by next election cycle? Statistically, I would expect about 40.

Surely you can find a few among those who would be willing to, well, do as they planned to do anyway and save the country from the abyss.

Don't discount the Parliament so quickly. Theresa certainly fought tooth and nail to go around the Parliament and have her way without oversight. She probably had good reasons to do so.

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

Tories have over 300 MPs, right? How many are due to retire by next election cycle? Statistically, I would expect about 40.

I'm not sure...

Surely you can find a few among those who would be willing to, well, do as they planned to do anyway and save the country from the abyss.

By doing they'd jeapordise their knighthood/peerage which greatly improves their chances of lucrative consulting work after their parliamentary career.

Don't discount the Parliament so quickly. Theresa certainly fought tooth and nail to go around the Parliament and have her way without oversight. She probably had good reasons to do so.

McHrozni

Of course she' prefer no oversight whatsoever but IMO it had more to do with the SNP than it did with members of her own party.

Corbyn has Labour voting to support Brexit in any case (the craven incompetent) so even if there is a rebellion in Labour and Tory ranks it'll still pass handily

 

[McHrozni]

By doing they'd jeapordise their knighthood/peerage which greatly improves their chances of lucrative consulting work after their parliamentary career.

Maybe. But you don't need that many to rebel to throw a spanner in the workings of Brexit. Simply debating the merits of a hard Brexit for a few weeks in the Parliament could do wonders to popular opinion on Brexit, limiting Brexitards to deplorables only.

Of course she' prefer no oversight whatsoever but IMO it had more to do with the SNP than it did with members of her own party.

SNP has several shots at stopping a hard Brexit, if not Brexit outright.

Corbyn has Labour voting to support Brexit in any case (the craven incompetent) so even if there is a rebellion in Labour and Tory ranks it'll still pass handily

Corbyn has Labour not to oppose Brexit, but put in amendments that would complicate a hard Brexit. For Brexitars, that could well be worse than Labour trying to stop Brexit - they can't divide the country that way. Plus of course, that's what he said before the debate. Given the nature of the debate he could easily declare Tory plan unworkable and destructive for UK and have Labour vote against it. He could then claim Labour wasn't against Brexit, but that Tory incompetence ensured Brexit was a failure and he couldn't support that. If that happens even a minor revolt in Tory ranks could have the Parliament reject the legislation that allowed Theresa to trigger A50, resulting in a political crisis.

In light of that, his statement that he will not oppose Brexit on principle was probably the best thing to say. It leaves all of his options open. Whether he will use them to stop this idiocy, reduce the scope of the idiocy or not exploit it at all remains to be seen however.

Defeatist mentality will get you nowhere - even if you're right in everything it's still the wrong way to go.

McHrozni

 

[Greebo]

Maybe. But you don't need that many to rebel to throw a spanner in the workings of Brexit. Simply debating the merits of a hard Brexit for a few weeks in the Parliament could do wonders to popular opinion on Brexit, limiting Brexitards to deplorables only.



SNP has several shots at stopping a hard Brexit, if not Brexit outright.



Corbyn has Labour not to oppose Brexit, but put in amendments that would complicate a hard Brexit. For Brexitars, that could well be worse than Labour trying to stop Brexit - they can't divide the country that way. Plus of course, that's what he said before the debate. Given the nature of the debate he could easily declare Tory plan unworkable and destructive for UK and have Labour vote against it. He could then claim Labour wasn't against Brexit, but that Tory incompetence ensured Brexit was a failure and he couldn't support that. If that happens even a minor revolt in Tory ranks could have the Parliament reject the legislation that allowed Theresa to trigger A50, resulting in a political crisis.
In light of that, his statement that he will not oppose Brexit on principle was probably the best thing to say. It leaves all of his options open. Whether he will use them to stop this idiocy, reduce the scope of the idiocy or not exploit it at all remains to be seen however.

Defeatist mentality will get you nowhere - even if you're right in everything it's still the wrong way to go.

McHrozni

A small part of me wants this to happen

 

[McHrozni]

No...I'm totally ignorant of that. I'll have to do some more reading.

Ya' know, I figure the EU isn't perfect. I'm sure it's a Bureaucratic Nightmare and has got a lot of unwanted baggage. But, si is all Big Government and ya' need a Big Government to run something like the EU - because it's BIG!

But less than perfect, or far from perfect, is not neccessarily the antithesis of good. So I was shocked that so many pundits figured the UK would be the first of many governments to leave the EU. I don't think it will happen. Mankind hasn't seen anything like the EU evolve since Ancient Rome - and Rome had to conquer and subdue. The EU...warts and all....is 1000-year-dream made real and done peacefully. So I can't imagine most Europeans giving up such a thing without a lot of consideration and council beforehand.

I could be wrong.

The people who voted against EU were mostly people who consider consideration a dirty word and council is something to look down upon. There was a general consensus among those who did consider it and took council that Brexit was a bad idea.

McHrozni

 

[McHrozni]

A small part of me wants this to happen

It would be interesting to say the least.

McHrozni