Brexit: Now What? Part II

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

How long will Corbyn's defenders here keep ignoring the fact that, his ideology aside, he a horrid leader?

As soon as someone proposes a decent leader to replace him (and they win a leadership election).

When will Corbyn's detractors realise he isn't the problem with Labour, which is broken quite possibly beyond repair?

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

The idea that we can have a limited customs union for things like cars is flawed. Say we have a customs union with Germany on cars and, free of the EU negotiate a free trade agreement with Japan and the USA. Cars from those countries can come tax and tarrif free to the UK then go the same to Germany saving avoiding the 10% tarrif if they went direct. The two key parts of a customs union are free movement inside the union and common tarrifs on entry. We can't have a customs union and negotiate our own free trade deals.

Aren't tariffs based on country of origin?

 

[Lothian]

Aren't tariffs based on country of origin?

Yes but once they enter the Union they are in free circulation. If we had a customs union with Germany any car here can go to Germany without being subject to further customs controls.

 

[Andy_Ross]

The UK has been told it will have to relax its immigration rules for Australians if it wants a free trade deal with Canberra.

Alexander Downer, Australia's high commissioner to the UK, said the country would want better access for business people working in the UK before reaching a post-Brexit deal.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38704325

Stop immigration?

 

[Degeneve]

Yes but once they enter the Union they are in free circulation. If we had a customs union with Germany any car here can go to Germany without being subject to further customs controls.

I doubt that according to the European Union treaties, in particular the provisions which create a customs union at the EU level, any Member State, including Germany, could negotiate by its own a customs union (or, by the way, any customs agreement) with a third country (i.e. a country which is not member of the EU as the UK will be after the completion of the procedure provided by Article 50).

Once they have created the customs union the EU Member States have delegated their sovereignty on customs issues and régulations to the EU.

If the UK wants to have this kind of provisions they will have to negotiate with the EU as whole and not with single Member States.

 

[Garrison]

The UK has been told it will have to relax its immigration rules for Australians if it wants a free trade deal with Canberra.

Alexander Downer, Australia's high commissioner to the UK, said the country would want better access for business people working in the UK before reaching a post-Brexit deal.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38704325

Stop immigration?

Was going to post this. Only yesterday the pro-Brexit papers were touting Australia's eagerness to do a deal, now we find out the cost.

Also today Boris Johnson stated that he thinks Trump's policies will be good for Britain:

http://www.panarmenian.net/eng/news/230591/

PanARMENIAN.Net - British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson says he's "positive and optimistic" that the policies of newly inaugurated President Donald Trump would work in Britain's favor, The Associated Press reports...

...In his inaugural speech, Trump declared he would put "America first" in all his decisions. But Johnson said that whatever deal was done with the U.S. "it's got to work for the UK as well."

Yeah of course it has to Boris, I mean it's not like the US can exploit some sort of advantage in negotiations is it?

 

[Lothian]

I doubt that according to the European Union treaties, in particular the provisions which create a customs union at the EU level, any Member State, including Germany, could negotiate by its own a customs union (or, by the way, any customs agreement) with a third country (i.e. a country which is not member of the EU as the UK will be after the completion of the procedure provided by Article 50).

Once they have created the customs union the EU Member States have delegated their sovereignty on customs issues and régulations to the EU.

If the UK wants to have this kind of provisions they will have to negotiate with the EU as whole and not with single Member States.

Yeah sorry you are right. I said Germany as they are the ones the Brexiteers think want a deal on cars.

I am referring to item 8 in May's 12 point plan described by sky as follows
8) Free trade with European markets through a free trade agreement: we will pursue a bold and ambitious Free Trade Agreement with the European Union
What it means: We are leaving the single market but we want a few bits of single market agreement, on exporting cars for instance, a very good free trade deal with the EU – and some sort of Customs Union agreement that will mean we don't have to pay tariffs.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Was going to post this. Only yesterday the pro-Brexit papers were touting Australia's eagerness to do a deal, now we find out the cost.

Also today Boris Johnson stated that he thinks Trump's policies will be good for Britain:

http://www.panarmenian.net/eng/news/230591/




Yeah of course it has to Boris, I mean it's not like the US can exploit some sort of advantage in negotiations is it?

No deal with Europe is better than a bad deal but a bad deal with the US is better than no deal?

 

[Aber]

If the LibDems can get the pro-EU vote while the anti-EU is split it all becomes about bring down the government and forcing a general election.

Unlikely that the LibDems can force a general election in the short term. In the longer term a "rejoin the EU" campaign has a large problem, as the terms would probably include no rebate, and adoption of the Euro.

 

[CapelDodger]

Yes but once they enter the Union they are in free circulation. If we had a customs union with Germany any car here can go to Germany without being subject to further customs controls.

In a customs union everyone imposes the same tarrifs on non-members. Britain would thus charge the EU tarrif on cars imported from, say, Japan. While, of course, having no say in what the EU tarrif mught be.

Now let's turn to imported parts and components, especially those which are not uniquely car-related ...

Of course the idea's a complete nonsense, but no surprise there.

 

[CapelDodger]

Unlikely that the LibDems can force a general election in the short term.

After the last couple of years I'm not assigning probabilities to anything. It would require defections from the Tory Party, obviously, but not a huge number.

In the longer term a "rejoin the EU" campaign has a large problem, as the terms would probably include no rebate, and adoption of the Euro.

Another good argument for staying in.

 

[The Don]

The idea that we can have a limited customs union for things like cars is flawed. Say we have a customs union with Germany on cars and, free of the EU negotiate a free trade agreement with Japan and the USA. Cars from those countries can come tax and tarrif free to the UK then go the same to Germany saving avoiding the 10% tarrif if they went direct. The two key parts of a customs union are free movement inside the union and common tarrifs on entry. We can't have a customs union and negotiate our own free trade deals.

Brexit enthusiasts gloss over complexities like this when talking about trade deals. IMO it's a combination of attempting to portray the process of getting a trade deal as simple as possible and genuine ignorance of tariff arbitrage like this (and no doubt this is a tip-of-the-iceberg obvious example).

Things like this (and tend of thousands like them) are the reason why comprehensive trade deals take years, decades even, to negotiate.

 

[The Don]

The UK has been told it will have to relax its immigration rules for Australians if it wants a free trade deal with Canberra.

Alexander Downer, Australia's high commissioner to the UK, said the country would want better access for business people working in the UK before reaching a post-Brexit deal.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38704325

Stop immigration?

That's fine, immigrants from Australia are (largely) white and (almost) English speaking. In the same way that no-one complains too much about the number of Americans coming to these shores (though Mrs Don has herself had a handful of pointed comments of late), I haven't heard too much in the press about hordes of Australians, New Zealanders or white South Africans overwhelming local services.

Which IMO goes to show that Brexit is not about sovereignty or population control, it's about keeping out brown people and people who speak "foreign"

 

[The Don]

No deal with Europe is better than a bad deal but a bad deal with the US is better than no deal?

The first few non EU countries through the door will get the deal of a lifetime. The government will be under tremendous pressure to demonstrate that Brexit is a success and one very high profile way would be to announce some brand new trade deal. As a consequence they will absolutely roll over and give large countries willing to do a deal pretty much everything they want.

These terrible deals will haunt the UK for decades and leave our economy at the whim of foreign powers but remember, it's all about sovereignty and nothing at all about keeping brown people and people who talk funny out of the country.

 

[The Don]

More post-Brexit "tail wagging dog" economic policies from Theresa May:

The prime minister is to unveil a new, more interventionist, industrial strategy on Monday, designed to boost the post-Brexit UK economy.

The government will be "stepping up to a new, active role", Mrs May said.

<snip>

Smart energy, robotics, artificial intelligence and 5G mobile network technology are some of the areas that could receive support through a new Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund, according to Downing Street.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38713327

All very welcome but unfortunately post-Brexit, the real damage will come in the sector that accounts for the majority of GDP, has a trade surplus with the EU and which has accounted for more than 100% of the growth in the UK economy - the services sector.

Even if she manages to magically double the size of the sectors listed, that won't offset a 1% or 2% shrinkage in the services sector.

 

[Greebo]

The UK has been told it will have to relax its immigration rules for Australians if it wants a free trade deal with Canberra.

Alexander Downer, Australia's high commissioner to the UK, said the country would want better access for business people working in the UK before reaching a post-Brexit deal.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38704325

Stop immigration?

I was in the pub with an Australian colleague and his chinese wife shortly after 23rd June. They were told by a drinker there that they weren't to worry as neither of them were immigrants.

 

[Aepervius]

More post-Brexit "tail wagging dog" economic policies from Theresa May:



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38713327

All very welcome but unfortunately post-Brexit, the real damage will come in the sector that accounts for the majority of GDP, has a trade surplus with the EU and which has accounted for more than 100% of the growth in the UK economy - the services sector.

Even if she manages to magically double the size of the sectors listed, that won't offset a 1% or 2% shrinkage in the services sector.

Isn't that also one of the best export of germany ? Robotics and AI software for them ?

 

[The Don]

Isn't that also one of the best export of germany ? Robotics and AI software for them ?

Quite possibly, and the rest of Northern Europe too.

Realistically, in a post-Brexit world the UK will have to become a low-tax, low pay economy competing against the likes of Indonesia, The Philippines or Thailand - not as it should, a high skills economy taking on Northern Europe and Japan.

 

[The Don]

Meanwhile here in Wales:

The first minister and the leader of Plaid Cymru have launched a joint Welsh Brexit plan, calling for continued participation in the single market.

Labour's Carwyn Jones and Leanne Wood called for a "balanced approach" to immigration linking migration to jobs.

Damn still about keeping brown people and people with funny accents out.

The paper, launched in London on Monday, calls for:

• Continued participation in the single market to support "the future prosperity of Wales"
• A balanced approach to immigration linking migration to jobs, with "properly-enforced" employment practices that protect all workers
• For the UK Government to make good on promises that Wales would not lose funding as a result of Brexit
• A "fundamentally different" relationship between the devolved governments and the UK government

It also called for social and environmental protections and for workers rights to be maintained, and for transition arrangements to be properly considered so the UK does "not fall off" an economic "cliff edge".

All very well and good but sadly impossible

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-38695528

 

[wobs]

This blind optimism regarding the UK's prospects post-Brexit are not without precedent.

After WWII, Britain went to the US for a grant to get itself back on track after the decimation that the war wrought. Our hopes were high owing to some bizarre belief that the US owed us. However:
"Prime Minister Attlee dispatched John Maynard Keynes, the economist and government financial adviser, as Britain’s negotiator in Washington. Most of Britain expected a gift in recognition of the country's contribution to the war effort, which had predated that of the US, and Keynes believed he could wrest a multi-billion dollar grant-in-aid out of the USA rather than a loan. Despite three months of severe clashes and hard wrangling, Keynes returned with a loan and a heart-attack for his troubles. The Anglo American Agreement produced a business loan instead of a subsidy, with extra conditions stacked in America’s favour. "

http://www.workers.org.uk/features/feat_1213/loan.html

Seems likely the Brexiters are in for a nasty wake up.