Brexit: Now What? Part II

[McHrozni]

Just a question ... am I reading it right that she wants to keep or create a new customs union, but leave the common market?

Wouldn't that be the worst possibility for UK? Bank pas sporting is gone, but EU members could still export easily to UK?

Although to be honest ... it's hard to see which possibility is worst.

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

Maybe, but this will mean some other party on the left will take its place.

Why ?

The UK has shifted dramatically to the right in the last 40 or 50 years. The Heath Conservative government IMO was more left wing than Tony Blair's Labour government.

Right now there seems to be little or no demand for a left wing populist party. Those who might be drawn to such a party are dissipating their efforts on single issues - IMO being an active supporter of a party is like buying an album, sure there are some bad tracks on there but the whole album is worth buying, there days people download individual MP3 tracks so just get single tracks or involved with individual issues.

The populist parties are on the right.

 

[McHrozni]

Why ?

Because people get tired of the same politicians, because politicians holding on to power grow corrupt and alienate the voters and because there is growing incentive for those not part of the bloc to try to present alternatives, because the system works that way.

It might require Labour to move a bit to the right though.

Incidentally, will Theresa May attempt to join the USA? It would fit the pattern and be hilarious.

The populist parties are on the right.

In the UK maybe. There are populist parties on both sides worldwide, this is what I was referring to. Right wing populists haven't had much success since 1940s (when, admittedly, their success was destructive beyond contemporary imagination).

McHrozni

 

[Lothian]

Maybe, providing the EU is willing. But in the absence of such rules, May's offer of a vote to parliament to accept or reject the negotiated deal is worthless and mendacious.

Not really, if parliament rejected the deal. The government would be expected to approach the EU to back out. It is not like the referendum was anything more than informative. The referendum is as binding as the £350m per week to the NHS promise.

 

[Architect]

Why ?
Right now there seems to be little or no demand for a left wing populist party.

In England. But in all fairness, you've consistently identified the different voting patterns in the various home nations so I'm not out to score a point as such -merely to point out that SNP left-wing policies on health and childcare issues this side of the border have been popular.

I agree with other posters regarding the Blair government arguably being more right-wing than some of the traditional one nation Tory administrations of the past. It's probably a complex issue, however, inasmuch as you have some periods where national cohesion ande recognition of post WW2 problems encourage a much broader brush that would be the case in the relatively affluent late twentieth/early 21st century period.

That and the fact we've hee-haw manufacturing, hence Unions and the like seem to be an ever-diminishing force (unless you use Southern, I assume).

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

worthless and mendacious.

Much like the woman herself then.

 

[Aber]

Like her position regarding a Hard Brexit, IMO Theresa May is ideologically wedded to the idea of reintroducing the death penalty.

Do you have ANY evidence for this?

Mrs May told this newspaper last night that the death penalty would not have prevented the killing of PCs Hughes and Bone.

‘The murder of Nicola Hughes and Fiona Bone was a callous and cowardly act,’ she said. ‘But I do not believe in the death penalty, and I do not believe that the death penalty would have acted as a deterrent in this case.’

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=11671901

You may not like her or her politics, but you are now just making stuff up.

 

[Aber]

Right now there seems to be little or no demand for a left wing populist party.

In my opinion this depends whether you measure left wing on economic or cultural terms.

 

[The Don]

Do you have ANY evidence for this?

A half-remembered BBC report where she claimed that the ECHR prevented the UK having the death penalty and that whilst she was not pushing for it at this time, that may change once the UK has left the Council of Europe.

 

[commandlinegamer]

A return of the death penalty, particularly if it were administered the same as previously—a short wait, then a long drop—might help reduce prison numbers, which could then be used for immigrants. So it's easy to see the appeal.

 

[Henri McPhee]

Since when has being medically qualified been a prerequisite for making decisions about the administration of the NHS ? I worked in the NHS for a while and it was often said that doctors made terrible managers.

I think most people would like to see Assad replace by someone less "dictatory".

Evidence of unquestioning support ?

Perhaps but I'm not sure it's going to align with your wishes...

That's as maybe but the point is that Mrs. May and Jeremy Hunt should be thoroughly acquainted with the whole business of administering the NHS before there is more utmost folly of cuts and closures. They need to focus on priorities instead of just supporting property and currency speculators, and the whittling away of fixed incomes by hyperinflation. Islamic extremists are the priority, not toppling Assad or Israeli expansion, or war with Iran. I don't want Mugabe or Robert Maxwell in control.

 

[Tolls]

Robert Maxwell has been dead for rather a long time, so you can stop worrying about him being in control at least.

 

[The Don]

That's as maybe but the point is that Mrs. May and Jeremy Hunt should be thoroughly acquainted with the whole business of administering the NHS before there is more utmost folly of cuts and closures.

Possibly, though that's presumably what senior civil servants are there for, to provide expertise in their subject area. I'm not sure how a medical qualification would help them (as you insist they ought to have). A friend is a consultant orthopedic surgeon, I'm not sure that he's any better informed about the economics of geriatric care than you or I.

Indeed he may be even less well informed given the amount of time and effort that he spends keeping current on his speciality.

They need to focus on priorities instead of just supporting property and currency speculators,

Any evidence to support the claim that they are supporting currency speculators ?

I'll grant that if you include everyone who owns a house in the "property speculator" category then they are. Otherwise they're not doing that much to help property speculator.

and the whittling away of fixed incomes by hyperinflation.

I must have missed the recent hyperinflation in the UK economy. IIRC inflation has been below the Bank of England target of 2% for years.

Which hyperinflation are you referring to ?

Islamic extremists are the priority, not toppling Assad or Israeli expansion, or war with Iran.

You claimed that Theresa May was actively supporting Israeli expansion. Do you have any evidence to support this ?

I don't want Mugabe or Robert Maxwell in control.

As Tolls has pointed out Robert Maxwell is unlikely to be in control of anything these days on account of his being long dead

 

[Undesired Walrus]

So realistically, what does this mean for freedom of movement? If I in 2 years time want to go to Germany for a few months to find a job, and a German to UK vice versa, what happens?

 

[The Don]

So realistically, what does this mean for freedom of movement? If I in 2 years time want to go to Germany for a few months to find a job, and a German to UK vice versa, what happens?

Pre or post Brexit ?

Post Brexit, and depending on what arrangement the UK comes to with the EU it could be like trying to get a job in the United States. You could enter the country on a tourist visa (or tourist visa waiver) but if you wanted to work legally then you'd have to go through the hoops of getting an appropriate work visa. In Germany, as a non-EU worker, this is difficult and complicated. You and/or your employer have to demonstrate that the role you want to fill couldn't be performed by an EU citizen. This process is time consuming and while it may be worthwhile if you're recruiting someone with very specialist skills that are in short supply (for example scoring goals in the Bundesliega), for more run of the mill posts it may not be worth your prospective employer's time and effort to do it.

Pre Brexit you would have the same rights as you currently have AFAIK BUT unless agreement is reached between the EU and UK you may not have those rights post-Brexit. I don't think anyone wants to see hundreds or thousands of deportations but you may lose your right to reside or there could be some kind of fudge that you have the right to work and reside but it's tied to your current job.

The trouble is that until the negotiations are complete, no-one knows.

All of the above is merely IMO

 

[3point14]

Pre or post Brexit ?

Post Brexit, and depending on what arrangement the UK comes to with the EU it could be like trying to get a job in the United States. You could enter the country on a tourist visa (or tourist visa waiver) but if you wanted to work legally then you'd have to go through the hoops of getting an appropriate work visa. In Germany, as a non-EU worker, this is difficult and complicated. You and/or your employer have to demonstrate that the role you want to fill couldn't be performed by an EU citizen. This process is time consuming and while it may be worthwhile if you're recruiting someone with very specialist skills that are in short supply (for example scoring goals in the Bundesliega), for more run of the mill posts it may not be worth your prospective employer's time and effort to do it.

Pre Brexit you would have the same rights as you currently have AFAIK BUT unless agreement is reached between the EU and UK you may not have those rights post-Brexit. I don't think anyone wants to see hundreds or thousands of deportations but you may lose your right to reside or there could be some kind of fudge that you have the right to work and reside but it's tied to your current job.

The trouble is that until the negotiations are complete, no-one knows.

All of the above is merely IMO

So, what you're saying is that I need to go get a job in France, pronto, and be there when the **** -storm that is an EU exit hits?

 

[Aber]

A half-remembered BBC report where she claimed that the ECHR prevented the UK having the death penalty and that whilst she was not pushing for it at this time, that may change once the UK has left the Council of Europe.

So no actual evidence, just projecting what you think she will do as a Tory?

 

[Aepervius]

A couple of years ago it dropped below 50% for the first time.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-32061822

All we "need" is a major, terrorist attack or a despicable child molestation/murder case to splash across the headlines for it to become the majority view again.

No. All you need is to lengthen the process and fight it for 10 years. As actuaries are, the one most in support will die out, and be replaced by those who don't see it as good, until that dip under 50% dip severely under 30-35%.

 

[McHrozni]

So realistically, what does this mean for freedom of movement? If I in 2 years time want to go to Germany for a few months to find a job, and a German to UK vice versa, what happens?

Realistically ... don't wait for the 2 years time to pass.

There will likely be a deal preserving the rights of those who arrived before UK leaves EU, or before an arbitrarily chosen date that is not decided yet and will be announced in advance (though by how much is an open question). After that, given the stink raised by deplorables, it will likely be much harder.

McHrozni

 

[abaddon]

So, what you're saying is that I need to go get a job in France, pronto, and be there when the **** -storm that is an EU exit hits?

Sure. Or any other EU country. All is well. The problem is that post brexit, you will have to apply for a visa to even holiday in the rest of Europe. Good luck with that.